Severe Blizzard
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New month and continuation of the crap we have suffered through June.
No rain in Guildford since last Sunday.
I get one free day to go cycling this coming week - Tuesday. Bl**dy typical - light rain all day is forecast yet the rest of the week each day will be dominated by the usual useless light showers and days of humid cloudy muck (which at least can be cycled in). More boredom and seething annoyance at having to stay in on Tuesday then get the less wet conditions to work in.
Still no thunder in this dreadful summer - I was under the impression that this coming week was supposed to be 'convective' with a hope of some thundery showers in central southern England at long last - not more of this frontal dross.
If it was thunderstorms forecast for Tuesday's bike ride I could guarantee that it would stay bone dry and I could get a decent ride. As it is drizzle then it will come true. I am also getting sick of this sods law awkward annoyance with bad weather expected for EVERY day that I get free to ride and relax yet it is always dry (but cloudy and vile) on work days. I got better rides in February without all this dross.
Cycling in the countryside is the only pleasure to get away from urban life and with this awful summer I need respite from the daily stresses of work.
No ride / wet ride + strong weather dissatisfaction and frustration + grumpy customers (due to crap weather) = Anger, frustration and resentment, poor customer service.
Summers like this create high levels of boredom - if it has to be wet or unsettled then at least we could get some decent rainfall amounts or storms here in Guildford, or it could be settled and sunny. Long dry and sunny spells can be boring but there are so many more activities that can be enjoyed in those conditions and there is such a better 'feel good' factor - something vitally missing this year.
Well, I hope Tuesday is like the rest of the last 8 days - the rain fails to materialise - unless there are some surprises which involve a thunderstorm then a cancelled ride will be worth it.
Rant over.
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I am sick to death of incessant cloud, wind and drizzle dross and what is shaping up to be yet another nightmare summer with an absence of thunderstorms or any other interesting weather.
Winter brings more enjoyment than this pathetic excuse for a 'summer' month has yielded. May was a load of crud too and barely any rain fell in the dull and sunless period before the 21st.
Today was yet another let down here in the S.E. with a piddling useless rain event despite the depression passing overhead. As usual, any thundery activity either moved east away from reaching this area or died out before it got here (last night).
if we have to suffer such a crap month, it would be nice if we could actually get something worthy of comment instead of endless waste of time small rainfall events and days of gloom and strong winds. Before anyone says 'S.E. had a deluge on Monday 11th June' - we did, but like last years only decent event of the summer here (5th~6th June '11), I was away on holiday and missed everything - again. Of course, nothing interesting happened at my holiday area.
My summing up of summer 2012 - another year - another summer - same old
Truly sick to death and at the end of my tether with this depressing dirge.
Might as well put some Christmas music on to cheer myself up - at least we have the festive period in winter when the wx is dreary - the summer offers nothing but endless disappointment and the fifth summer in a row like this is wearing very thin and my patience is going.
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I remember the BBC forecast on the evening of Saturday 12th December 1981. I don't recall who was forecasting but one feature was the male forecaster saying he had to have new symbols cut earlier that day (blue discs denoting temperatures below -20 deg.C). There was a blue '-13' disc over central Southern England and '-20' over West Scotland. Indeed, Fleet (Hampshire) had a min. temp. of -13 deg.C late Saturday evening (after -11 deg.C by 6 pm on the Saturday) and temperatures were slowly rising as the cloud from Sunday 13th's blizzard was advancing. This was the occasion when -24.9 deg.C was reached at Shawbury.
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Only 19.8 mm at Guildford in March - last 'proper' rain was on 4th March (10.1 mm). At least the dry conditions in March were anticyclonic with sunshine and pleasant conditions. Now it is a return to the type of dross which has been the bane of the last 18~24 months (except December 2010) - unsettled setups that don't deliver rain or interesting conditions in central SE England. All we have had off this 'major' event of the last 36 hours is 1.5 mm. There is no sign of any more rain or showers and it's just more cloud and wind with little or no rain.
I would put money on 2012 being yet another year that fails to produce any noteworthy thunder event.
Sorry, this part of the post should go into the whining thread but I can't find a current one.
Although some people may not agree, there is a definite correlation with dry Marches and Aprils and wet summers or at least poor summers which may be cloudy, breezy but still rather dry - like 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011 were in this area. One can infer why I am getting sick to death of this pattern after suffering it for four consecutive years. It's a double kick in the teeth having to wait and work through endless weeks of rainless / snowless / thunderless unsettled weather to get to June and go on a much needed and hard earned holiday just in time for the rain to arrive. Also the probability is increased of missing the only decent thunder event of the year while away from home, thereby ruining the holiday. This naturally is to be followed by returning home to have more of this current 'unsettled rainless dross' or to have a heatwave just in time for the weeks of Olympics with which we are all going to be bombarded from the media after mid-July. I personally hope for a wet April and May which would increase the chances of some decent convective activity too and more anticyclonic development by the start of June ensuring a month like March - sunny, anticyclonic with proper dry weather to continue through June.
I cannot believe the current synoptic situation (map for 4th April not shown) could have only delivered 1.5 mm locally. I thought I had clicked onto the wrong year when viewing the map earlier tonight. The map resembles early April 1998 or 2000 when there was heavy rain HERE on both occasions plus snow in 2000.
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I get bored with viewing the sypnotics in a mild zonal pattern.That`s apart from seeing no snow or frosty weather.
When the models start churning out repetitive runs you run out of things to discuss.I mean how many ways can you analyise Lows to the North and a Euro/Bartlett High bringing a mild Swestrly flow over the UK?
Against good instinct you also start looking well into FI for a sign of a change and if you spot one you want to believe it`s going to occur.
I know exactly what you mean.
2011 has been a rubbish year in the south.
Hardly any thunderstorms, hardly any snow, hardly any interesting events. Why?
Because we have had to suffer 9/12 months of south westerly - westerly dross that results in synoptics that don't favour the S.E. for interesting events. I thought 2008 was bad but 2011 has been horrendous - no decent summer thunderstorms since 2006 now. For such a 'westerly' year, rainfall levels have been very low in this area.
Such boring weather situations results in little to discuss too - not a good scenario at this time of the year where there far too little (non weather) to enjoy already.
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I agree with the posts saying that this is a disappointing start to the winter. Also - why no S.E. thread? Isn't it bad enough that there is nothing interesting developing here without being reminded of this by presuming no one in the S.E. will want to post as there is nothing to discuss. A moan-page would be more apt given the awful year 2011 has demonstrated to be in these quarters. A thunderless summer for the 4th consecutive year and now another long spell of tedious zonality with the usual useless rainfall quantities and lack of variety. Missing out on the snow is another kick in the teeth while already 'down'. The current weather is just like what we have suffered virtually all year but a bit colder. Hardly pleasing or inspiring.
I wish I could move north where all the action seems to be - thunder in summer and snow in winter and plenty of variety. I have never known such a westerly based year that has produced such little variety and has been so dry.The mean barometric pressure has been well below average in this region for every month since May, yet the rainfall has been mostly lacking throughout.
Having a dry year from anticyclones is enjoyable as the associated weather is often sunny and pleasant. I'm sure I am speaking on the behalf of many southern members when I say that it is very hard to feel enthusiastic about another run of westerlies (or variation on this theme) which will deliver the usual few minutes of drizzle and days of windy and damp conditions. Let's hope we can wipe the slate clean and get rid of this dross for 2012 as like many other storm and severe weather enthusiasts in the South and S.E., I am truly sick to death of this endless current synoptic set up that has gone on all year. I completely despair at the next 10 days of maps and models which shows little opportunity for a change bringing something more wintry, wet, stormy (anything interesting) into southern areas. I almost wish the Euro High of November was still here because such a mild build-up for so long might just lead to something different from the current outcome.
Sorry to grumble - rant over.
Seriously though, as I am the local weather 'nut' I only seem to be included in conversations when the weather does something interesting. The long standing current conditions result in little stimulating conversation and everyone seems to be so grumpy and depressed at present. i can't help feeling that if something interesting was developing then there would be plenty to invoke stimulating conversation.
Sorry if this post is off topic but I need to let off steam sometimes.
Definition of 2011 in the S.E.
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Well that was typical - I've been over near Manea all day, fantastic skies, surrounded by towering cumulus and some really good potential storms. A few spits and spots of rain, one faint rumble of thunder whilst the OH kindly informs me that there's been rumblings almost all afternoon at home from various cells passing by. Still on 4 thunder days for 2011, pathetic.
Try Guildford for an 'exciting, thrilling & rewarding' thunder experience (sarcasm intended).
2011 - 3 days so far and not much chance on improving the total if this awful summer is anything to go by, especially this last dreadful week of potential & unfulfilled stream of mess-ups, letdowns and downgrades for this area.
2010 - 4 days (slept through the single rumble on Sat 23rd Oct)
2009 - 6 days (of which 2 were single discharges which were both missed).
2008 - 15 days (where 5 of these were in April, 2 in March and 1 in January). Summer 2008 was as bad as this year for thunder. Even the 'famous' 6th August light-show missed this part of S. England as the usual mechanism to provide us with our unprecedented lack of thunder activity got into gear - the curse of the plumes being pushed east into the low countries as yet more Atlantic dross (S.W.ly's) has to reassert.
Note: My annual average for thunder at Guildford (1992 to 2006 sample period) is 16.3 days - we have had one average years worth of thunder over three and a half years.
Unlike in the 1990's and before - when a plume failed, the unstable westerly or S.W.ly situation that followed usually provided a 'consolation prize' - we can't even get that now. So much opportunity yesterday and today. Yet the pressure is rising and it will be yet another cloudy high (no doubt).
Sorry to veer off topic - this type of summer and lack of thunder is becoming seriously boring, especially when there is no other event on the horizon.
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I feel sorry for those in Scotland with endless wet and dull weather.
My gripe is that this is the FIFTH consecutive S.W.ly Atlantic dominated summer and the FOURTH consecutive summer that has been deficient in any interesting events in this part of the S.E.
Thunder has only been heard on 3 days this year (23rd April / 18th June / 28th June) after the paltry 4 days total in 2010 and 6 days in 2009. Although there were 15 days in 2008, very few of these were in the summer and all these totals fall short of the 25 year mean of 16 days per year expected for Guildford.
This summer has produced a concoction of boring and predictable situations with long boring waits with the end result being yet another downgrade. Today is yet another example - heavy showers, perhaps thundery, clearing to sunny periods. Yet again, there were no showers, just the usual cloudiness and breeze and humid discomfort when the wind decreased. Today's letdown follows last week's when this region was supposed to get thundery showers on Wednesday - only for the usual culprits to get yet another exciting event. Unlike summer's in the 1990's and early 2000's where a downgraded heatwave breakdown was usually followed by a showery S.W,ly-N.W.ly which did yield interesting events - it seems in recent years a heatwave breakdown downgrade also includes the 'unsettled' weather that follows it.
This is the fourth year of this type of summer crap where patience is running very low. Nothing seems to change and this pattern is reminiscent of the endless mild and rubbish snowless winters about a decade ago.
It's either;
(1) Cloudy (stratocumulus) & humid on days of promised showers and thunder events. The whole of July seemed to be dominated by sunny mornings, cloudy and humid afternoons and sunny evenings - data suggests a sunny month with just one dull day and 14 dull mornings - the extent of this afternoon cloudiness is hidden.
(2) Breezy, dull and humid and warm in S.W.ly warm sectors followed by a cold front with barely any rain.
(3) Frequent promises of thunder events which all get downgraded - pity other areas don't get the downgrades for a change.
(4) Constant run of Atlantic depressions that bring boring, predictable and dreary weather continuing this dirge of a summer.
Good points of summer 2011
(1) It gets light early in the morning and dark late in the evening! We are even slowly losing that privilege as we descend into autumn.
(2) The warm, sultry and bright weather is good for cycling and working if the humidity can stay low.
(3) The long periods of dry weather and missing showers benefits cycling and work.
Bad points of summer 2011
(1) Another Atlantic dominated summer.
(2) No proper anticyclonic weather since April, hence any heatwaves have been short lived and there is always enough humidity for cloud formation and sufficient stability to cause this cloud to become layered but not enough to prevent its development.
(3) This dreadful lack of thunderstorms persists for an unprecedented fourth year.
(4) Certain locations of the U.K. are favored over and over again with interesting events despite the synoptic situation previously resulting in the S.E. being favored.
(5) Any hot weather is accompanied by unpleasant high humidity and there is an unpleasant humid feel on the 'cooler' days.
(6) Any rain is in small amounts and there have been no large totals - except for 5th~6th June, which I missed when on holiday.
(7) Forecasts are frequently WRONG. This is usually when something interesting is forecast for this area but if it is somewhere else, then the forecast usually proves correct, often days in advance. Our downgrades are usually only hours before the event.
Time for a change - these dirges of summers are becoming predictably boring as we pass from one month to another with no feeling of real satisfaction at all.
I am not one of these people that likes endless rain but I do like SEVERE events and it would be nice to be treated to such an event a few times each month. Although I loathe humid and cloudy conditions with a passion, I find hot and sunny weather with low humidity (such as in 2003 and 2006) thoroughly enjoyable and makes me MORE energetic and actually motivated to get up in the morning.
I really hope we can lose this Atlantic dominated dross by the start of the winter as the only hope on the horizon is that we may get a fourth decent winter freeze after this fourth rubbish summer. After this awful summer the thought of an Atlantic dominated winter with no snow or cold fills me with real dread.
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Thunder started at Guildford at 1215.
Heavy shower from 1210 approx. (indoors, shopping, so unable to see what was happening - would you believe it?)
Moderate to loud thunder after 1218 and able to watch storm after leaving supermarket at 1223 onwards.
Lovely overhead C-C lightning at 1226 with crack of thunder travelling in N.E. direction and becoming more 'boomy' as it increases in distance. Initial discharge was 0.5 mile away.
Heavy shower ease at 1233 and current rainfall stands at about 4 mm, Thunder still rumbling to N.E. and some hopeful activity to S.W. and south too. It is also becoming VERY dark.
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Thought I would include my post on December 1981 which I created two years ago.
The snowfalls and very cold weather of December 1981.Here is an account of a memorable spell of severe weather which resulted in the development of my interest in weather, including my love of severe events. These observations were made at Fleet, Hampshire.
December 1981 began with an anticyclone to the N.W. of the U.K. and rather cold foggy weather with night frosts. A milder spell followed on the 3rd with the highest temperature of the month being 8.5 deg.C on the 4th. A N.W. airflow developed after the weak cold front moved S.E. This cooler period ushered in a period of rather cloudy weather on the 5th to 7th with light rain at times as waves moved S.E. along the front. It was already cold enough for snow in Scotland on the 7th. Overnight, a more active depression moved S.E. engaging very cold air to the north. As the front moved south, areas to the east of Salisbury Plain were treated to sudden heavy snowfalls. This snow was memorable because it was not forecast. A fantastic week followed and one wonders how many posts plus happy and satisfied weather observers there would be if such an event like the 8th~14th December were to be repeated today!! This would be in the realms of a true 'gift'. Even in 1981 I considered the timing of this near Christmas to be 'spot on' and is still the most wonderful lead up to Christmas that I have ever experienced � probably sadly to never be repeated.
Tuesday 8th December: The day dawned with moderate rain which had snow mixed after about 7:30 am. By 8 am, snow was falling quite heavily and there was a light covering on some ground by 8:15 am. The walk to school was enjoyable but the walk home was even better as about 2~4 cm snow had settled on most surfaces. The snow died out at around midday and cloud cleared south fairly rapidly to allow sunshine onto this winter wonderland.
Wednesday 9th December: A very cold sunny morning ushered in cloud associated with a line of coastal showers. There was little snow at Fleet but moderate snow was observed at Haselmere and rainfall records show that 2 mm precipitation fell at Guildford on this day.
Thursday 10th December: An even colder day with extensive freezing fog all day. I remember the snow cover being patchy and beginning to look 'tired', even on higher ground to the south of Fleet (Beacon Hill, near Farnham). Despite thick fog, the evening saw the temperature dropping again.
Friday 11th December: This was the main event in this period. Heavy snow fell in the second part of the night, through the morning and into the afternoon before dying out. Depths in the back garden � see photos � were around the 10 cm mark in exposed areas but I remember being pushed over in the school Rugby field and snow was about 20 cm deep. Needless to say, schools closed early on this Friday and being sent home at 2 pm allowed me time to take the photos on my relatively new Ricoh 500 35 mm camera. The evening news was filled with exciting snow scenes and it was a joy to see southern England in the news for a change from the ubiquitous events further north.
Saturday 12th December: The cloud cleared overnight to leave a sunny day. Conditions were intensely cold with maxima not exceeding -5 deg. C. at Fleet and -7 deg. C. at Farnham. Although the sunshine was quite bright and clear in the southern portion of the sky, the second photo shows patches of cirrus to the west. Despite slowly encroaching cloud cover, the temperature plummeted to �11 deg. C. by 6 pm as quoted by the local weather observer. I remember the BBC TV forecast that evening � there was talk of more snow on Sunday but the real interest was the widespread blue temperature symbols showing values of -20 deg. C. A '-13' was positioned over the Hampshire area and indeed, the temperature did drop to -13 deg. C. before rising from advancing cloud.
Sunday 13th December: The snow event was oddly enough not especially well remembered but the impact of it has left this day as an icon for impressive severe weather which will stay for many years. The morning was dull with the temperature close to freezing. By midday the wind was increasing and blowing the snow off the trees. The snow started around 2:45 pm and was mostly moderate but was mostly blowing sideways from the S.E.! A real blizzard was developing nicely and conditions were deteriorating by the hour. Just after dusk conditions must have been atrocious (but thoroughly exciting) if venturing or working outdoors. I often wonder how I would manage in my supermarket car park job if we were lucky enough to get a recurrence of such an event like the 13th December 1981! There was a local power failure from 5:45 pm to 7:15 pm and I vividly remember the eerie sound of swaying trees and the S.E.ly gale howling through my Dad's amateur radio masts above the house. The 350 watt Honda generator was about to be deployed for electricity as we expected the weather to become even more severe. However, the supply was restored and conditions relented slightly. Snow depths must have reached 15 cm during this event but with the temperature above 'zero', the snow was probably melting as it landed. By 9 pm, snow had turned to rain and winds became lighter as the depression passed over southern England. Barometric pressure dropped to about 970 mb during the passage of the blizzard. Reading University data shows a gust of 36 mph during the blizzard part of the storm but gusts of 50~52 mph near midnight as the winds veered N.W. With a period of rain, there was a thaw to the snow which would last for a few hours.
Monday 14th December: This was a windy day with a gusty N.W. wind, sunny periods with hail and sleet showers. In some areas these showers were accompanied by thunder � another element to add to this already exciting month. There was a thaw to the lying snow which was about 5~6 cm deep on running to school. The journey to school was cut short by a teacher drawing up in her car and saying I may as well go home as the school is closed due to ice. It was good to have another day off school � although by 5 pm there was a dreary feeling that all the excitement was over and things were returning to normal.
The next few days produced little interesting weather but nevertheless were still very cold. The snow mostly thawed out but some patches remained.
Saturday 19th December: A cold night led to a sunny day with thickening cloud. Further west, conditions were wretched with heavy rain, snow and gales. This southerly gale was most severe in Cornwall where there was the tragic loss of life as the Penlee lifeboat was lost at sea.
Sunday 20th December: A windy morning (Reading University � 48 mph) with rising temperatures (2.5 deg. C.) oddly enough brought snow which fell quite heavily but led to little covering. As temperatures dropped at the surface, the snow turned to rain � possibly due to a change of wind direction at higher altitudes. This was a messy situation and I don't personally remember lying snow on the 20th but runways were closed at Gatwick Airport and snow was deep in Eastern areas.
Monday 21st December: Conditions were cold with sleety drizzle which turned to snow in the late afternoon and became heavier in the evening.
Tuesday 22nd December: Periods of heavy snow overnight led to another moderate covering of about 7~8 cm by morning. A depression had developed in the English Channel and had halted Sunday's front before allowing it to push back west. The day remained dull with snow dying out but clearing skies in the evening brought severe frost.
The lead up to Christmas continued very cold with quite deep snow cover and indeed there was lying snow for Christmas Day. This was not a white Christmas as no snow was actually observed to fall on the day.
The thaw came on the 27th as a depression and fronts edged in from the west. However the frontal precipitation was rain rather than snow and the next few days brought periods of heavy rain and milder conditions. A temperature of 10 deg. C was not reached in December 1981.
Details of December 1981 - (min / max / rainfall / wind direction details).
1st -2, 4.5, Nil, Variable or north
2nd -2, 5, Nil, North.
3rd 2, 8, 0.25 mm, N.W.
4th 4, 8.5, 0.5 mm, N.N.W.
5th 2.5, 6.5, Trace, N.W.
6th 1.5, 6, Nil, W.N.W.
7th 2.5, 6.5, 2.75 mm, West or W.S.W.
8th -1, 0.5 12.75 mm, N.E. backing to North.
9th -5.5, -1, Nil, W.N.W. or West
10th -6, -3.5, Nil, Calm or West
11th -5.5, -1, 10.75 mm, N.E.
12th -9.5, -5, Nil, Calm
13th -13, 3, 10 mm, S.S.E. / S.E. veering S.W.
14th -1, 4, 6 mm, N.W.
15th 0.5, 4.5, Trace, East
16th -4.5, 0.5, Nil, E.N.E.
17th -6, 0, Nil, East
18th -5.5, 0, Trace, N.E.
19th -9, 0.5, Nil, North becoming calm or S.E.
20th -1.5, 2.5, 14.25 mm, South or S.S.E.
21st -1, 0.5, 3.75 mm, East
22nd -1, -0.5, 6.5 mm, North
23rd -7.5, -1.5, Nil, East
24th -3, -1, Nil, N.E.
25th -2, 0, Nil, Variable
26th -6, -1, Nil, E.S.E.
27th -2, 2, 1 mm, S.E. then S.W.
28th 0.5, 3, 0.5 mm, E.S.E.
29th 2.5, 5.5, 12.5 mm, S.E. becoming S.W.
30th 5.5, 8.5, 4.5 mm, South
31st 1.5, 7, 0.5 mm, S.W.
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O.K.
I am on a break at work and have not had a chance to read other posts, but will do later.
I have great pleasure in announcing that there was a heavy thundery shower at Guildford today. Details are given below. Although the rainfall amount was small, the thunder and textbook passage of this cold front was impressive and was a pleasure to see a Cb approaching after all this absence. The 18 claps of thunder were 'moderate' with a rather loud boomy one (1453) as the shower moved to the S.E. of the area.
Cb with dark base encroaching from N.W. from 1330. Surface wind direction was light S.W. Heavy thundery showers, with some very heavy rain from 1425 to 1503. Squally wind at times. In greater detail: Thunder approaching at 1425 with continued moderate thunder at 1428,1429,1431,1432, 1432, 1433, 1435, 1437, 1440, 1441, 1442, 1444, 1447, 1453, 1455, 1457, lightning only – horizontal blue CC fork to S.E. 1501, 1503. Lightning observations in italics. Heavy bursts of rain at 1426~1429, 1430~1433, 1434~1436 and large droplets at 1441~1442. Surface wind was north at 1455 and remained N.W. in the wake of the cold front. 2.5 mm rainfall.
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What have we done to deserve this, Guildford got electromagnetic storm repelling properties or something?
Wokingham gets thunderstorm with 1 cm hail this afternoon. Guildford remains dry and sunny with scattered cumulus apart from the Cb / Cu to north which lasted much of the evening. All we get is another horrid humid sticky evening - probably from moisture advected accross from everyone else's downpours - accompanied by headache, nausea and fatigue.
occasionally feeling groggy when actually getting a storm may be worthwhile but having to suffer while someone else gets the fun is a real kick in the teeth.
Well, just tomorrow morning's potential now then if that fails..... another indeterminable tedious wait of boring summer dross and S.W.ly garbage no doubt. Let's hope we get something before I go on holiday after mid-August. With the unpleasant nature and negative s**ds law aspect of this horrid year, something will probably kick off during the four days I am away from Guildford, only to return to more crappite again.
Sorry about ott griping but I am truly sick to death of this summer and missing out all the time. The 'NSC' is designed to let off steam is it not?
Maybe one day I can have something constructive, scientific and interesting to discuss and feel sorry for others who miss out for a change. I feel that this is highly unlikely in 2010.
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Still nothing. Usual story on the rain radar as all the showers pass to the north with no chances for the storm starved central southern S.E. to see anything.
There was a heavy shower at 1102~1115 with 3.4 mm rainfall, and my hope that there would be at least one clap of thunder was not realised, yet again. All we have had since is the usual cloud with sunny peirods as other areas get thundery showers.
There is one more chance - as this shallow low moves east and introduces a light N.W.ly or northerly then this region may benefit tomorrow before the next area of high pressure builds.
Let's hope this window of opportunity doesn't come in overnight when there is no surface heating unless it can hang around well into tomorrow, otherwise kent will benefit while we miss out again.
If this doesn't succeed then it's more tedious waiting and it will be well into August before the next opportunity arises.
Let's hope this new area of high pressure delivers proper sunshine and pleasant temperatures & humidity, and isn't going to sit over France with embedded fronts and more S.W.ly dross like the last few weeks. Please - no more stinking high humidity without storms.
Whether we are ending up with a 'good summer' like 1976, 1983, 1984,1989, 1990, 1995, 2003 or 2006 (only 1990 was really disappointing for thunder) I still think summer 2010 is a throroughly disatisfying season which is not helped by the crap summers for storms in 2008 & 2009 in this area.
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I'm trying hard to see the benefits of lovely warm sunny days with no rain or storms lol
Good point.
The sunshine and dry weather is pleasant enough, like we had in June. It's this horrid unsettled dry weather which annoys me so much especially when we get yet more high humidity and no storms - again - and wake up the next day knowing any chance of a thunderstorm has gone and won't return. It's 1000x worse when others get the storms and several times over while we miss out so much when there has yet to be FIRST thunder event of the season here.
:lol:
Summer 2010 is a thoroughly frustrating season and I wish the sunny and dry conditions of June had continued into July with none of this S.W.ly crap. Winter 1991~1992 brought more pleasure than this poxy thunder-less summer and the fourth in a series of increasingly bad performing years for thunder.
In the meantime, I think I am going to have to try and exercise a lot of patience tomorrow at work, what with another horrid hot sticky night and poor quality sleep and then having to deal with more humdrum life without a thunderstorm. I think I will leave the telly off in the morning as Kirkwood's infuriating cheerful smile and banter saying all those storms have now moved away and it won't be a bad day and it will be dry in the S.E. for the rest of the week may result in a steel tipped work boot through the screen or window!
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After reading this post I excitedly turned to null to give me some hope for Wed only to find (quote):
"Although much of the country will be at risk of a thunderstorm bringing the obvious threats of flash flooding, hail and very gusty winds – South Eastern parts will be less at risk with more in the way of sunny breaks and pleasant temperatures of 21 – 24oC"
Typical - think I might be a member here for some time!!
Yes - Typical
:wallbash: :wallbash: :wallbash: At this rate I will be drawing my old age pension before any storms affect Guildford and that's another 23 years away!
This morning was the mother of all let-downs. I completely ignored the BBC forecast risk of heavy rain for the 'S.E.' and had my Monday morning bike ride as usual as I wasn't expecting any decent rain or thunderstorms.
My prediciton was, of course correct (sorry, I'm not normally big-headed B) ), and at least I got a good 32 miles in which were in the Sahara Desert conditions which the 'S.E.' (away from kent) is known for these days. For much of the trip there was the constant reminder of this latest kick in the teeth after days of excruciating high humidity and seething annoyance in the form of threatening altostratus to the east. There was a brief heavy shower at Bramley at 0925~0938 which actually made the road wet but on reaching the B3000 back to Guildford the ground was dry again and there had been absolutely no rain.
I am truly sick to death of this summer and lack of thunder and that was after an awful 2009 and 2008 (see all my other posts). At least June was a pleasant anticyclonic month with SUNSHINE and low humidity and none of this 'unsettled and mainly dry in the S.E.' nonsense. If the weather map has low pressure and fronts on it - I expect rain and hopefully thunderstorms and not continued dry conditions, no thunder and the c**p which we've had recently. If this current so-called 'unsettled' spell can't deliver - we want the sunshine and high pressure back despite the drought problem. Anything is better than seeing endless storms crossing France and clipping kent while all my location gets is 'humisery'.
It's ironic that the forecast is always for the S.E. to have the driest weather with fewest storms yet the true S.E. (kent) gets the goods while areas further west repeatedly miss out.
Well, can't keep waffling but here's to the tedium of another week ahead with no surprises, no chance of storms in central southern England, any forecast of any event which might affect this area being downgraded but the dry and thunder-less forecasts coming true and the overall feeling of being totally deflated and having to wait another month of sweltering misery for another chance which will no doubt fail in this horrible year.
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in september 1968 parts of surrey were devastated by floods with violent thunderstorms and days of torrential rain, my mum told me some amazing stories as she lived in hersham near weybridge at the time of the floods.
what im looking for is some data on this event , pressure charts, temp/ dew points , what the cause was , maybe some one on here might know , can anyone help ?
ive been to some archive weather sites but cant find this period. thanks
:lol:
I have an excellent article on this from the weather magazine. Might be able to scan this and send it but the 'original' is a photocopy too.
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Cheers Neil! It was an impressive looking cell I have to say...regrettably (in the UK of course) I've had only FOUR thunder days, and I live in the SE!! This year so far has really taken the biscuit - if I hadn't been to the States, I don't know what sort of mess I'd be in, lol!
can anyone remember when surrey last had a thunderstorm because i cant .. ah..just come to me , was last july it was actually a very active night storm but nothing since :lol::lol: im sure when we do get them again( thunderstorms) then there be spectacular im sure.
Indeed. Though there is still a good few weeks until the end of the meteorological Summer, I don't think I can remember such a prolonged generally quiet period from late Spring and into the middle of Summer. Thunderstorm frequency across the West Midlands has taken a noticeable decline post 2006 - last year probably the most active since then, but the last good thunderstorm having occured in May 2007.
Can only hope there's a signficant change to the synoptic outlook that will favour widespread thunderstorm activity.
I posted in the NO STORMS CLUB earlier today. Just to say that at Guildford thunder has only been heard on ONE day (25th March) this year and without doubt this is the worst year for a lack of thunderstorms. From a historical perspective;
1990 was a very poor performer but there had been good thunderstorms in the preceding winter.
1976 produced 3 good storms in July although the preceding months were quiet due to the drought conditions.
1972 was a dry and cool unsettled summer but storms arrived after 19th July.
1959 was a long hot summer but some good storms in July and August between dry and hot periods.
1949 - No thunder data.
1933 - A hot and dry summer - but - a deluge of 131 mm in 5 hours at Fleet, Hampshire on Tuesday 26th September. There may be hope yet proving events can materialise in a 'barren year'.
1921 - An extremely dry year with a possible deficit in thunder like 2010.
The lack of thunder is especially frustrating with all this humid misery in the lead up to another 'let down'. I am begining to feel like I do in WINTER when we have endless SWlys and boring weeks of dross and no sign of snow. The only difference in summer is that the 'boring' weather can be pleasant and conducive to outdoor activities. This is fine if one is not stuck at work, having to slave away in humid and unrewarding conditions especially at weekends, when we always seem to get the hottest weather, and is far from enjoyable and annoying when it repeats. Focusing on other interests helps to quench the boredom but this is not easy when unable to do so such as when at work and having to suffer these horrid humid conditions head-on. Sorry to veer off topic slightly.
SW situations just never deliver the goods in this part of the UK - either mild and drizzly in winter or breezy and cloudy / humid and sticky and thunderless in summer. The summers of 2008, 2009 and 2010 have all had periods of SW type weather and have all been dreadful for thunder deficit. This year is at least producing nicer weather, except the days with high humidity, as anticyclones have had a greater influence than the other years. All we can hope for is a change of situation to one which can deliver and hope that if and when (and that's a big if and when) it does - that everyone gets favored at one time or another.
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Just to say tomorrow - 7th July - is the anniversary of the last prolonged and heavy thundery outbreak in Guildford (where 29.5 mm rain fell in heavy and thundery showers from the late morning onwards).
This will mean that from tomorrow evening, thunder will have only occurred on 5 days in the preceding year!
If current electrically dead conditions persist then by August 1st, thunder will have only occurred on 3 days in the preceding year. This amounts to just six rumbles - how's that for detail.
The storms include;
Wednesday 2nd September - one rumble. Missed by observer.
Wednesday 2nd December - one rumble. Missed by observer.
Thursday 25th March - four rumbles and some lightning. Witnessed while working outdoors.
July 6th has produced some impressive thunderstorms in the Fleet and Guildford areas in the past, here are the known events;
1999 - Afternoon thundery showers in warm unstable situation with low pressure nearby. A 'dry' storm locally, though.
1996 - A day of heavy showers becoming thundery in early evening.
1991 - Overnight heavy thunderstorms with much electrical activity. Affected much of southern England.
1989 - Lively convective storms in late afternoon. Loud thunder. Local rain with Basingstoke flooded but only 4 mm at Fleet. More thunderstorms following night.
1983 - Afternoon convective storms but little rain. 1.5 mm at Fleet. Much more rain fell at Alton and London (Wembley area) with some flooding.
1973 - Afternoon thunderstorm at Fleet with 12.5 mm rain. Severe storm and floods at Hook, Surrey.
How much longer can this storm starvation go on? Surely something is going to happen before the end of this month. Meanwhile more slaving away in unpleasant sweltering stormless / rewardless humidity to look forward to. Yes ... and it's on a bl***y Friday and Saturday again - just when work is the most demanding even in nice cooler conditions. What fun (sarcasm intended).
Just a footnote: Summer 1972 was very cool with 21 deg.C not reached until July 12th! (Fleet, Hampshire) and the hottest day was only 25.5 deg.C on the 17th. Despite an unsettled theme to that summer, rainfall was very low and thunder was lacking. There was an impressive outbreak of thunderstorms over southern England on the 19th with 34 mm at Fleet. However, London and Guildford missed out. Exeter reported 90.4 mm in the early hours with some streets under 9 feet of flood water. There were thundery outbreaks in the next two weeks and everyone saw something.
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I have to agree with you there, this does remind me a little of 2006 which had a very hot summer. We haven't quite got to the same temperature values as 2006 yet (32+C) but there is still plenty of summer left to acheive this. Don't forget, the 19 July 2006 recorded the hottest ever July daytime temperature of 36C in Wisley (Surrey).
Edit: the number 6 has a lot to do with the weather for this location. The 6th August 2008 saw an impressive lightning display, similarly we have a decent amount of snowfall on 6th April 2008. The only thunderstorm (albeit weak) at this location this year? The 6th June
6th July anyone?
How about the 6th January 2010 and the heavy snowfalls and lesser snowfalls on the 6th February 2009? I've experienced impressive weather on various '6th's' too.
I agree that this summer is like 2006 and also think the hottest weather is still to come.
There was talk of the dreaded 'Atlantic' taking over for the first week of July and goodbye to the summer (and probably no chances of cool weather showers or thunderstorms in the S.E. / central southern areas - as we always miss out in this situation unless the air is VERY unstable and the showers are in the right area). Our only chance seems to be when the synoptic set up leads to a cool NWly via troughs in the isobars such as happened regulary in the summer of 2001.
Now this westerly / SWly influence is affecting northern areas where it is unsettled while the south continues with this lovely summer sunshine. The dry conditions are enjoyable but a thunderstorm or two FOR EVERYBODY would be most welcome - perhaps like the regieme in July 2006, July 2003, July 1999 or (for those who can remember) the glorious July's of 1983 and 1984.
Here's hoping we may get a 1980's style 'surprise' next week sometime!
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I know its been a very quiet year so far but im really enjoying this lovely weather because its such a great opportunity to be outside and enjoy what summer has to offer. After all for the last 3 summers we have complained how rubbish its been but right now its completely the opposite. Be out and enjoy it i say.
I tend to agree. The lack of thundery activity and related interesting events, yet again, is frustrating. However, the pleasant sunshine and comfortable temperatures are making this summer enjoyable, nevertheless.
It is great to see no sign of the Atlantic firing up with those horrid depressions bringing endless S.W.lies with mediocre rainfall followed by days of gusty winds and dust blowing around as the ground is so dry due to this part of the U.K. always missing the showers in this set up. This is how much of summer 2008 panned out in central southern England.
Similarly, the lack of S.W.ly winds has meant humidity has been comfortable which is essential when working outdoors doing manual work. There is nothing worse than having sweltering humidity to NOT GET A THUNDERSTORM at the end of it - like last year, 2009.
The current pleasant weather also makes people friendly and more relaxed whereas days of cloudy and drizzly S.W. type weather or high humidity alike are associated with high levels of grumpiness which is not conducive to improving morale when already annoyed about the lack of exciting weather.
This summer may be going like 1990 with a lack of thunder but due to anticyclonic conditions where everyone is in this together and not like the last two summers where this part of the U.K. has repeatedly missed the action.
Thunder has not been heard in June since 2007 now.
Thunder has only been heard on 7 days in the last 22 months and on 10 days in tha last 2 years, now! The average is 16.3 days per year (Guildford, Surrey).
Also just wondering if this year may turn out to be like 1994 with a poor start then the 'cracker' arrives. A very quiet start to the season ended on Friday 24th June 1994 with several hours of good electrical activity, although Guildford seemed to escape the higher rainfall totals with only 13.5 mm while Fleet received 42.0 mm with a severe line squall and associated roll cloud (the cloud also seen at Guildford) and parts of kent received 40~50 mm rain widely. Summer 1994 went on to produce some good sunny hot weather and other storms. Here's hoping for 2010.
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Hi, I haven't been on this forum for a while, mainly due to a lack of interesting weather!
Now we are in mid-June and yet again there is no sign of ANY thundery activity in Central Southern areas (I won't say S.E. like last summer and summer 2008, as London and the real S.E. got pasted leaving areas just to the west thunder-free on these occasions). Please can I rejoin the No Storms Club - I think I may qualify.
Rundown on thundery activity in the last YEAR (Guildford, Surrey).
(1) Tuesday 7th July 2009 - Heavy thundery showers in unstable westerly situation.
(2) Thursday 16th July 2009 - Heavy rain and thunder during evening as cold front edges in from S.W. against a S.E. surface flow.
(3) Friday 24th July 2009 - Slow moving thundery showers in an unstable westerly situation.
(4) Wednesday 2nd September 2009 - Single clap in evening heavy rain at Guildford. Missed as I was at Fleet where there was just heavy rain.
(5) Wednesday 2nd December 2009 - Single clap in late afternoon torrential showers at the end of a long wet period and before the cold winter.
(6) Thursday 25th March - Teatime torrential rain with thunder as cold front moves N.E.
So, a major lack of thunder and with all this anticyclonic weather here to stay, the 3rd consecutive totally thunder-free June likely now.
Here's hoping to some nice surprises. Plume situations are pretty useless in this part of the U.K. as all we seem to get these days are Kent clippers, so slow moving unstable N.W. situation showers with cool upper air may be the only way to get the goods again this year.
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Warm daytime at Guildford, followed by teatime thundery shower. Max. temp. today was 17.0 deg.C, the warmest day of the year so far.
Thunder to S.S.W. at 1659.
Very heavy rain at 1701 to 1706 with squally wind from S.E. around 1705.
Thunder (although muffled by the torrential rain) at 1707, 1708 and 1711. CC lightning seen with last 2 times.
Further rain to 1720 then light to moderate rain around 1735.
This was the first thunder of 2010 and the first of ANY thunderstorm observed since 24th July 2009.
Although rain was very heavy, only an estmated (will not know the rainfall value properly until the 0900 obs. tomorrow) 3~4 mm fell in this shower.
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Please correct me if I am wrong SB but I thought your neck of the woods did quite well early January, I'm sure Camberley had at least 15cms and that's not to far away from you is it?
We did do well in early January, but to be pedantic Guildford seemed to get less than surrounding areas such as 23 cm at Fleet and up to 40 cm nearer Petersfield and in parts of West Sussex. Even at Dunsfold near Cranleigh I can see that many trees have been damaged by the weight of snow so depths must have been considerable. I think the current issue is that February has continually failed to deliver the goods in this area, especially with so much promise and that there is the potential for a possible historic event next week or a major disappointment. I know I'm being a tad bit greedy but if the potential is there then it would be great to benefit from it. If the potential wasn't there then I would be pleased with our event in January. Next week may be our last chance to see some decent snow and this may be the last potentially decent winter before things return to normal next year?
Guildford had a good 15 cm by early evening on 6th January so we did well on that occasion and this was the best early January snowfall since 1982 (there were lesser falls in 1985 - 5 cm (Fleet); 1987 - 12 cm (Fleet) and 1994 - 5 cm). Apart from additions on the 13th January (4~5 cm) and a few hours of wet snow on the 20th, the rest of the winter has produced very little snow. Guildford missed the 21st & 23rd December events by a very close margin and there were only dustings on the 18th and 20th.
The 'best' weather of the 2009~2010 winter for this area was in January and my conclusion is that February is becoming a very disappointing month especially if the Midland snowfest - South rainfest comes off next week. A long anticyclonic spell with dry condtions and severe night frosts would have brought pleasant conclusion to this winter and ushered in a lovely sunny start to March.
Sorry about the length of the post but I do enjoy typing
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Trouble is the "offing" is Cold rain. Apart from a couple of days the last two weeks here has been bone chillin cold with rain and a few flakes of snow at times. Imo the worst winter weather imaginable especially if you happen to work outside. The ground is totally sodden in this area atm. The current "pattern" has become tedious, with another week of the same ( at least ) to follow.
This winter has been colder than for many a year but for most parts of the SE has not resulted in any memorable snow events. Time to turn the page onto Spring with better hopes for "snowmageddon" next Winter methinks.
I know what you mean.
Working outside is not much fun with all this cold damp stuff.
I do not relish another week of cancelled outdoor leisure activities - another wet and miserable Monday, which is the only day in the week available for my cycling activities - and having to work in freezing cold rain on the other days.
It is a real kick in the teeth when this part of the S.E. gets rain and the Midlands get yet another snowfest while there is no hope in Hell of anything worthwhile happening down here. I would even prefer a return to mild S.W. dross next week - for all areas - than having to go through another cycle of marginality letdown and the S.E. / Central Southern location happens to be the area to miss out again. Roll on spring and the Bartlett!
However, if these current models could change and the current feeling of the Midland snowfest / S.E. rainfest being written in stone changes to something which actually favours the S.E. for heavy snow and a historic or epic snow event then bring it on!
The south has done well in other epic snow events that have pasted the Midlands, such as 25th April 1908.
Hope this post doesn't offend any readers, but I am getting pretty fed up with missing out on the big events and seeing all this promise and anticipitation of a week to rival the worst weeks of January 1984, January 7th 1986, December 8th 1990 and late February 1994 (for my area) does not bode well for morale.
The problem with this winter has been that there have been far too many 'wrong side of marginal' type events in this area and disapointment has been high, especially this month with all the promise of the severe cold two weeks ago being put back on every run. I have never seen so many days when rain has fallen at 0.5 to 3 deg.C as during this winter. I'm surprised we haven't had a major freezing rain event this year with the way the situations have panned out.
Fed Up With Overcast, Rain And Cold?
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I bet my collection of weather books that by the end of July;
(1) Despite this vile crap continuing, I will not reach >10 mm rain in a day and the entire months rain events will be drizzle or light rain.
(2) The lack of thunder will continue.
(3) There will be more days of cancelled bike rides, like today, a dreadful state of affairs after only 2 rides in June (usually 4-5 each month).
(4) The weather will miraculously improve and be stiflingly hot and sunny for the Olympics - when we will be subjected to incessant Olympic detail in the media - at least this may give the tabloids a rest from the bilge and inaccurate accounts that are all too frequent.
I don't think I have ever felt so fed up in the summer as this year, which is not helped by the action replay of the incessant crap endured in the last few summers without a break. I feel similarly bored and depressed to how I feel during a normal (snowless) winter and even they hold more potential for bike rides than this vile summer. Wish I didn't have to get up in the morning as there is nothing to feel motivated about and another humdrum day at work, bored out of my skull with nothing to chat about does not raise any positive feel. I only feel contented when asleep, listening to music, eating or doing anything else when I can forget about and not have to look at and be reminded of this awful summer. Diversionary tactics are usually a winter ploy.
The dreary weather would be less frustrating and annoying if it wasn't accompanied by seeing other locations having all the 'excitement' while where ever I happen to be misses out and that the ambient conditions are less unpleasant to work and be out in.
The main issues are;
(1) Incessant dull and depressing conditions which bring negative feelings. SAD in summer - never known this before.
(2) No exciting events modeled and if anything is indicated then it is downgraded and Guildford misses out - yet again.
(3) Extreme boredom resulting in nothing to talk about which enhances the negative mood and feelings of resentment, the metaphorical 'big party party for everyone but I'm not invited'. On rare occasions that we have interesting events, conversation is easier, I have more people interested in chatting and feel there is a purpose. During boring weather there is obviously nothing to talk about and people are similarly bored and start to 'back-stab', complain more and are generally more obnoxious. (I got attacked by angry customer in car park last July during a long period of disgusting weather in an intensely boring period).
(4) No pleasant surprises.
(5) Just more of this dross which just is a never-ending Hell.