[Who's Looking Forward To Spring]

Love the snow and love the proper cold.

However, this winter is getting tired, especially this dissapointing February. The lack of decent cycle rides, a waterlogged countryside and unpleasant damp and cold conditions, without snow, are becoming a nuisance. Working in frequent drizzle and damp is not much fun and the grumpy customers add to the lack of motivation to want to get up in the morning and remain in a good mood. Non-weather hobbies play a role to bring pleasure - especially some decent music - to help forget the miserable and unrewarding weather for a few hours.

Either bring on more snow (for the central southern - S.E. area) with crisp cold, the odd ice day and some decent nighttime frosts or bring on some lovely sunshine and clear skies.

As for spring - the sunshine, showers and hopefully (this year) some decent thundery showers are eagerly awaited - the humid sticky heat without thunderstorms, of summer is not awaited with pleasure.

Spring can be the most enjoyable time of year as temperatures are moderate and seldom too hot, and recent years have shown interesting synoptics and events but also prolonged droughts and sunshine, without high humidity, which are great for working and leisure outdoors.

[Model Output Discussion]

I stand to be corrected but I'm not sure if the South Coast has ever been hit by one? Maybe Kent or East Sussex could in theory but we are in the worst place possible in the UK to get affected by one of these I would imagine. To get to us in the mid South coast (I think you live in Poole?), it would need to travel over a fair bit of land, thus draining it of all its energy very quickly and rendering it null and void in term of it being a Polar Low.

But they are indeed beautiful and rare (in terms of impacting the UK) creatures that can be incredibly intense.

There's always talk of such features appearing whenever there is so much of a sniff of a Northerly during the winter. Much excitement when sombody spots anything resembling a comma shape in the satelite imagery but in the same way as 'seeing' funnel shapes appearing left right and centre in clouds during high cape periods, they usually come to nothing.

I may be wrong but I suspect this setup is pretty good to spawn one above Scotland later on though.

There have been several - but not recently.

December 7th 1937 - heavy snowfalls in New Forest.

December 15th 1950 - Very heavy snow on I.O.W. where depths reached 15 inches!

December 8th 1967 - Heavy snow along south Coast with 11 inches of snow at Brighton. This fell in 8 hours and was accompanied by thunderstorms (due to convection over the relatively warm English Channel).

Parts of Wales and the north coast of N. Ireland saw 17 inches and 14 inches respectively - so northern areas do well in this set up - but the south coast is favoured if the circulation is overhead and convection plays a role and maintains the intensity of snow in the cold and unstable air mass.

March 27th 1975? - Mostly a frontal event.

March 19th 1987 - Heavy snow along S. Coast with depths of 20 cm. 5 cm reported in 10 minutes. There was no closed circulation with this event and tended to move along the trough line with north to south then N.W. to S.E. movement.

The snow storms of late April 1981, which affected Salisbury Plain severely, originated on a large depression which slowly moved S.E. with waves forming on the occluded front. This was not a classic 'Polar Low' - i.e. small depression developing in a baroclinic zone near Iceland and moving rapidly S.E. or S.S.E.

Hope this info is useful.

[Snow Depths]

Guildford, Surrey.

5 to 6 cm of fresh snow overnight and this morning.

Maximum depth at 11:30 am, was 13~14 cm but more typically 10~11 cm.

A slow thaw has reduced much of the snow cover on roads and from branches of trees. Final depth at 9 pm was 13 cm on some ground but more typically 8~10 cm.

January 2010 is becoming an exciting winter month and in league with January 1979 & 1982!

[Snow Depths]

Guildford, Surrey.

Snow depth was 9~12 cm at 11:30 am increasing to 15~17 cm by 6 pm.

These depths were taken as an average. There were a few pockets of 18 cm depths but seldom less than 15 cm away from treated roads and disturbed snow in gardens etc.

[East Anglia & South East Cold Spell Discussion]

Today - Wednesday 6th January.

Heavy snow in Guildford at last.

Snow fell from 6 pm Tuesday 5th to 5:30 pm today with the heaviest periods of snow around 8:15 pm to 9:30 pm last night, 2 am to 4 am then 3:45 pm to 5:15 pm today. The remainder of the time, the snow was moderate with some heavy bursts.

Depths at Guildford ranged from 9~12 cm around 11:30 am to a lovely crisp 15~17 cm by 6 pm this evening.

Satisfaction at last!

I'm pleased Portsmouth & I.O.W. did well out of this too, as posters / snow enthusiasts from there were feeling as disillusioned as I was until last night.

So, no more posts from me on the whining thread for a while, I think.

For those who have yet to see decent snow this winter - I hope your wait isn't too long now.

Thoroughly enjoyed doing a 9 hour shift in the supermarket car park in the snow today and working in heavy snow is easier than rain as the snow brushes off clothes and doesn't soak through. The only clothes 'casualty' today were wet work boots as snow infiltrated around the laces and wet trouser hems which froze just before finishing at 8:30 pm.

Lovely frost now so our lovely snow will be preserved a bit longer. Seriously though, this snow could be around for quite a while now and with some hopeful top up snowfalls. Wonder if we will make 14 days of continuous lying snow in January 2010?

[The Whining Thread]

Despite what some people are saying, I just don't see much interesting going on here in the West Midlands over the next few days. Tuesday's snow will fizzle before it gets here and I can't see how Friday's will work out.

How do I know this? Not from any models or forecasts...just on the fact that we seem to be the unlucky place this winter. (Or one of them, I don't think the south west are doing well either)

So, what shall we do over here while the eastern half enjoy their snow?

It's even worse in Central Southern / Western S.E. England where areas to the East of Guildford have had some excellent and prolonged heavy snow and less than ten miles to the west heavy wet snow fell on the 21st~22nd December while this location missed much of the fun. Frustration levels are still high after the dreadful summer (2009) for lack of thunderstorms followed by a similar annoyance in November with coastal thundery showers never reaching inland despite forecasts. More annoying still, it's the locations that got all the storms in the summer and November that are having all the snow now.

I'm not enjoying this winter nearly as much as last years, although I take comfort that last year the best of the cold and snow was still to come.

This year's pattern seems to be characterised by the following;

(1) Marginality ~ Any 'snow' event associated with precipitation levels greater than 1 mm fall as rain - in plentiful amounts.

(2) Any chances of snow or snow events are associated with minimal precipiation levels. If anything does fall, it is missed in an eyeblink and thaws quickly when it rains.

(3) Very hard to ignore a consistant pattern of downgrades. Plenty is promised but this fails at 6 hours to up to 3 days before the 'event'. Funny how there are no other events which develop as a surprise or any of the partly hopeful forecasts get upgraded.

(4) Other locations get the 'event' they are predicted, or 'extra' from surprise events. Guildford area is promised a dry week - It's a dry week we get!

(5) promises, promises. Every snow event is put back. "It will snow on Monday". Sunday night arrives and Monday is downgraded, but a new situation will develop for Wednesday. Tuesday night arrives and Wednesday will be rain but another event is expected at the weekend then it doesn't materialise. IT IS SOOOO FRUSTRATING.

This winter is barely any better than 2005~2006, which had plenty of opportunity for decent cold and snow. This repeatedly failed to materialise in this area with the let down of late December 2005 then the rubbish February and the dreary dirge of a continuation of this into March. A total waste of opportunity with a long cold period - at least we had a wonderful summer that year though. Many other locations had a frustrating time that winter too, unlike this year.

I know I sound thoroughly miserable - but it is hard to be enthusiastic about missing out on something many others are enjoying, over and over again yet hundrum life goes on and on without any compensatory pleasures. Can't even go out for a decent cycle ride as its too cold, windy or b****y raining again. I'd miss a month of rides for a repeat of 2nd February 2009.

So, to tonights models and forecasts. Some of the week ahead looks wonderful, or did earlier this evening. Already there is talk of next weekends snow being downgraded and our chances during the week don't look so good according to the METO. Some say this is a 'very special winter' - currently, the only special thing about it that here it is probably the worst for prolonged snow distribution frustration since 1983~1984. I would love to be proved wrong in the next week, , and be writing posts about snow depths and comparing with other locations rather than having more of the frustration that has been abundant so far.

Time is running out and there is the risk that the mild stuff will be back and all our chances will go.

Just to prove a point - the lowest minimum temperature (-7.2 deg.C) and amount of snow (2 events - 4 cm and 5 cm respectively) were better in the record mild winter of 2006~2007 than the lowest minimum of -6.4 deg.C and 1~2 cm depths seen this winter! If a mild winter can produce snow and the enormous potential as seen in 2009~2010 can't deliver, then there is no hope.

[South Central England Cold Spell Discussion]

yeah fingers crossed ah lol

Yes - fingers crossed.

Don't think I could go through another failure like last Monday.

Also fed up working in sleety rain at 1 deg.C knowing everyone else is getting the pasting. This followed by the wet roads freezing once the cold air does arrive resulting in slipping on my bike and trecherous and exhausting unpleasant working conditions. I am not at all impressed with this winter yet - let's hope OUR time will come this time and the precipitation turns to snow for several hours on the back edge of the southward moving front before we lose it.

Will it be cheerful posts in the snow thread or yet more additions to the whining thread?

Does this current situation remind anyone of Thursday 7th to Saturday 9th February 1985?

After the snow of January 1985 being disaapointing locally - as this area missed most of it - rain turned to snow after midnight on Saturday 9th February and deposited 6~10 cm on most ground before dying out. The synoptics then were similar to now, with an easterly cutting in behind a depression in the English Channel, as it moved south. The next week was very cold with maxima around -2 deg.C for a few days.

Good times - let it be repeated in 2009~2010.

[The Whining Thread]

what aload of crap this winter is gonna be rubbish for the south always is every year is the same total i wish i could swear because id use nearly every swear word possible to discribe the crap and the over hyping thats done i love net weather,

but am starting to realise that winter is not exciting at all in the south of england if anybody tries to tell me that the events now are on par with the 80s or even 96 id tell you your of your rocker ive never seen such a load of rubbish as ive seen since them days.

and i dont ever see it being any different.

winter09/10 is never going to be anything but crap crap crap crap crap.

I know exactly how you feel.

So far I have exercised much patience with this cold spell and taken every daily set-back quite well - but not tonight.

The expectation of 5~10 cm snow on Thursday night when only 2 cm fell in reality was met with disappointment but at that stage there was hope for other events. Parts of the 'true' S.E. saw up to 18 cm but hey, at least Guildford got it's 2 cm and there was some snow and it fell when I could watch it and I didn't sleep through the usual few minutes of fun we usually get.

The expectation of another 5~10 cm snow on Saturday night into Sunday yielded another 2 mm of precipitation in the gauge - mostly rain - but hey I saw snow falling at 0130 and 0230. Even the ice-rink car park I had to work in on Sunday didn't reduce enthusiasm too much as there would be other chances!!!!!?????

This morning the cloud thickened and temperature rose just above zero - another marginal event - but there is hope yet. Snow started at 10 am then quickly turned to sleety rain by 10:20 am. Through the rest of the day there was continuous sleety cold rain with the odd few flakes of snow mixed in.

Now the really difficult bit - trying to continue without swearing. It was hardly enjoyable working in a busy supermarket car park watching the rain thawing the pitiful amount of snow lying on verges and melting the ice and slush everywhere else and if having to put up with the kamikaze ignorant and rude drivers who don't care that staff have to try to work outside, getting totally soaked to the skin in this freezing cold rain really is the pits when one thinks everyone else nearby is getting snow. On getting home to discover the areas that were NOT forecast snow today get the goods while we miss out again is incredidbly frustrating.

I agree that 2009 is a crap year. The only good things in this year were the events of January and February - at least we had decent snow on the 2nd as all the other snow events failed in this area including the 'winter storm' of the 9th~10th (just rain). Since March, 2009 has been consistently lacking in satisfaction and pleasing events. The summer was useless and thunder has only been heard on six days this year - the worst (lowest) year on record and two of these days were single claps which I didn't even hear and were just reported to me. Don't get me started on s*ds law and that every Monday, the only day I have free for cycling, it always rains meaning I either get a miserable wet bike ride or have to stay in and wait another week - yet the totals that cancel this activity are never large. 6 rides in October versus 4 so far through November & December.

What really makes me seethe is the constant downgrades. One, O.K.; Two, getting annoying; three or more is excruciatingly annoying. Today's event was yet another flop and disappointment and thanks to the amount of rain that fell, what little snow that remained on the ground has now almost gone. While other local areas probably keep snow cover until Christmas - all we get is the usual green and grey dirge.

So what about the next event, Christmas Eve - probably warnings galore but it will deliver nothing but intense frustration and disappointment again while somewhere that wasn't supposed to get the snow will get the pasting. Another rotten stinking day getting chilled and soaking wet and getting sworn at and pushed around by the 'oh so friendly' locals.

I don't hold out any hope in this cold spell as downgrades seems to be the only consistent theme. The Met Office severe warning grades should be changed thus;

Be Aware = Be aware that disapointment and downgrades (for Guildford but not other parts of the S.E.) are possible.

Be Prepared = Be prepared for disappointment and likelihood of increased swearing and temper(ature).

Take Action = Stick the headphones on and play music at full blast and open the Fosters cans to try to forget that another much wanted situation has gone tits up.

After Christmas, the mild rampers are already getting excited. I can't think of anyhting worse - all this let down and disappointment and all we get is a return to boring mild crap. If we had to miss out then at least a nice dry and sunny anticyclonic spell with frost and fog (like the post-Christmas and New Year period last year) would raise the spirits even if still feeling annoyed about the letdowns. Mild dross will not improve morale and will just reduce it as in other thoroughly horrid winters like 1992~93.

Christmas 2009 - another green one. Last snow falling on Christmas day in Guildford - 1996. Last significant snow lying - 1981. Last Christmas day with significant falling snow - 1970!

TIME FOR A CHANGE especially with all this potential around. It's all very well that things are downgraded all the time - but what about upgrading and the mild dross never makes it after all AND the Christmas Eve depression does some wonderful stuff and this time it is THIS PART OF SOUTHERN ENGLAND THAT GETS THE PASTING!

I think it is already too late for this spell to redeem itself - I just only hope there will be other chances this winter which will be more successful and this is not the only chance meaning that the winter has failed already.

Finally, I am grateful for the snow that has been enjoyed locally but I am not impressed with and can never enjoy marginal situations like today when I always seem to miss out and often get something thorougly horrible instead.

[Convective Outlook]

Been more active thunderstorm-wise for the south this November than it has for the whole of the past summer it seems!

[The Whining Thread]

Sorry, it's been a difficult day and I feel like a BIG moan tonight. I've managed to avoid this since June - honest!

Although Guildford finally got three thunder events in July; Tuesday 7th, Thursday 16th and Friday 24th; 2009 without doubt is the most boring and frustrating year for lack of thunder, which has only been heard on a total of 5 days and I missed one of those (Wednesday 2nd September). The other day was Wednesday 15th April.

Here are some facts;

(1) Thunder only heard on 5 days in 2009 and not much chance of increasing this, despite unsettled conditions and always the potential there, only to go somewhere else. Kent, London and even other parts of Surrey have had a 'normal' or even a 'good' year (15~20 days). This jinx has been with us in Guildford ALL year and it is like we have to pay for our outstanding snow event on February 2nd with a totally c**p year in every other way to follow. (Other areas that had very heavy snow in February have also had a good year for thunder too).

(2) Previous worst year for lack of thunder events was 1990 with only 7 days - at least we had a decent summer that year.

(3) Number of days of thunder in 2009 = April 2008 alone!

(4) I work outdoors so am more likely to 'pick up' thunder sounds and be aware of even distant storms - despite several violent cold fronts and Sunday's (22nd November) straight line wind severe squalls nothing was heard - only to get an Email from my friend in London to say he got yet more thunder. If Sunday's torrential rain and hail driven by 35 mph winds couldn't deliver - nothing will.

(5) Fed up with endless rain and wind, not in especially impressive amounts, which include Monday mornings - my day off and only chance in the week to go cycling in the countryside - only to clear by Noon leaving another windy and unpleasant damp scenario while the 'true S.E.' get all the thunder again. Both Monday 16th & 23rd had this scenario.

(I) Rain is welcome as it makes the weather more interesting even if it does make work more demanding but trivial quantities spoiling outdoor events are never welcome.

(II) I don't enjoy urban life and my countryside cycling is the ideal tonic to get away for a few hours from the hectic, overcrowded and stressful life of living in a large commuter and university town and having to deal with ignorant and rude people everyday. This just enhances this need for some peace. I ride very early in the morning to avoid the rush hour and roads clogged by chelsea tractors on the school run - darkness and cold is preferred to congestion - hence the moan about morning rain but dry afternoons. Riding later in the day when roads and bridleways are busier is not at all fun.

Maybe this post should be on the No Storms thread but thought I'd post here as it is a mixed whinge but has the main theme regarding the lack of thunderstorms. I will be doing more of these posts regarding the prospects of a return to a winter patten of S.W. mild dross after last year's wonderfully different winter. A mild zonal damp windy winter is not welcome after the crummy garbage endured through much of 2009 after the end of last winter - need to save this for after Christmas as there will be plenty of opportunity and time to grumble with the continued lack of thunderstorms and probably no snow or frosts either.

Anyway, apologies for the grumble but I'm really on one tonight after the c**p I've had to take at work today and missing out yet again. This is not helped having just seen the forecast for the usual parts of the S.E. to get the fun over the next few days while we are just tantalisingly too far west.....and it will probably be drizzle and light rain on Monday morning again.

[Rain / Winds / Storms - Friday Into Saturday]

Temperature between 15.2-15.4 deg.C in Guildford at present with gusty S.S.W. wind (25~30 mph). There is only drizzle and light rain at present and have been no heavier bursts since around 3 pm.

Barometer is dropping, after being at 1000 mb much of the afternoon, pressure took a dive at 7 pm when the wind started to increase. Pressure is currently 996 mb.

[When The Weather Forecast Goes Horribly Wrong.]

The blizzards of 17th~18th January 1985 which were supposed to bring 15 cm snow to all of southern England. The low stalled over the Bay of Biscay with huge amounts of snow in Devon & Cornwall while Hampshire (Fleet) stayed dry. Friday 18th January was a very disappointing depressing dull and misty day with a thaw to the little snow remaining from earlier light snowfalls.

Snow forecast to move east but affecting only the west country with larger quantities than expected, while areas further east miss out, often with little 'warning', was a common forecast error and probably the most famous of all of these occurences was the west country blizzard of 18th~19th February 1978. I only vaguely remember this event as it was before my real weather interest but it is an excellent example of this error.

A minor version of this happened on the 7th February 1996 with an afternoon of heavy snow promised. The low 'sank' into France but not before over 25 mm rain fell over Cornwall and 30 cm snow was reported from parts of Dartmoor.

[Whining Thread]

Another heatwave ends - another letdown with no thunderstorms. Another unpleasant humid night with insects and ANNOYING WASPS. I don't mind the high temperatures and I tend to enjoy clear hot days with good air quality and LOW humidity, not this c**p endured this summer. If it has to be humid then it is natural to expect a thunderstorm set up - that is in a NORMAL summer.

There have only been 3 days with thunder this summer - the worst I have ever known.

Indeed, there have only been 5 days with thunder heard in the last year now; Sunday 31st August 2008; Wednesday 15th April 2009; Tuesday 7th July; Thursday 16th July and Friday 24th July.

None of the thunder events were associated with hot weather breaking down. Unstable cooler S.W. and westerlies came to the rescue. 2008 was also extremely poor for successful plume events in this area but after that letdown one doesn't really expect the following year to produce NO hot or humid weather related thunderstorm event.

If nothing is heard after Monday week then that is only FOUR days in the last year which is even worse than 1990 which was completely rubbish for storms.

It defies belief that with all the high humidity and annoying discomfort suffered during June and now in August, that thunderstorm activity has been so lacking. June was so frustrating with storms always so tantalisingly close to Guildford but August has just not produced the goods in other areas either despite some good potential synoptics.

If we can't get any storms it would be nice to have just plain anticyclonic weather with a high over the U.K. with lovely clear skies, cool nights (8~10 deg.C) and pleasantly warm days (22~24 deg.C) and it is sincerley hoped that this could prevail in the first half of September when I go on holiday as I don't want dull, drizzly and miserable weather when in Cornwall. Nor do I want to run the risk of missing some big thunderstorm event at home while away, especially after the tremendously boring August and almost thunder-less year leading up to it (not July).

Ideally, a warm and sunny September and October with fun and games in November followed by a colder than average winter with plenty of snow and nice quiet anticyclonic frosty and perhaps foggy nights. The "Indian Summer" could be punctuated by thundery breakdowns and thundery downpours as in late September 1976, September 1981, September 1999 and September / October 2006.

Whinge over.

[6Yrs Ago Today 100F]

On Sunday 10th August 2003 I was in Cornwall staying at Trenython Manor near Par.

It was a 'lazy' day just lounging around by the lodge and keeping an eye on the Ceefax page 404 results, watching the temperature rising in London. It was 30c at 10 am and 38c at 3 pm. It was also very hot and sunny in Cornwall and 28~29c was reached in the afternoon. It was a hot evening when visiting Mevagissey, just around the other side of St Austell bay, and I remember quite a lot of cirrocumulus and altocumulus castellanus later which turned red at sunset. A great start to the holiday and the heat was enjoyable as it was 'dry' heat and not that humid stuff.

[Convective/storm Discussion Thurs 23>>>>>>>>>]

Thunder continuing to south and S.E. from slow moving Cb (Redhill direction).

Third lot of thunder this month at Guildford.

First rumble was at 12:46 pm and increased after 1 pm as the Cb cell moved E.N.E. over the Guildford area. Although raining steadily, there was a very heavy burst at 1:15 ~ 1:17 pm. Thunder quickly became infrequent after 1:20 pm then there was renewed activity to the west at 2:06 pm with especially loud booms at 2:29 pm and 2:33 pm. Rumbles continued periodically to 3:14 pm. No lightning was seen in these two outbreaks. There were short heavy showers with the heaviest rain at 2:15 pm. About 9 mm rain has fallen today, 7 mm from these thundery showers.

2 mm had fallen before Noon in morning showers where no thunder was heard. I cycled from Guildford to the Cranleigh area and was caught in a heavy prolonged shower at 7:10 am to 7:55 am (Winterfold Hill) and 10:10 am to 11:10 am, very heavy rain at 10:48 am to 10:55 am (Run Common). More than 2 mm fell in these showers.

There was an impressive Cb anvil to the east on leaving at 4:30 am. Met Office radar showed this to be over North Kent at the time. A developing Cb to the south and S.W. seemed to be producing rain over the Haselmere area as seen from Pewley Hill at 5:10 am. This area of showers had a clearly defined edge which seemed to be over the Albury and Blackheath area just before passing thorugh, where dry ground changed to wet ferns and then puddles in the road about 100 metres further on. A second pulse from this development brought the soaking just after 7 am. I may upload the cloud photos when sorted the camera out.

[Thunderstorms Of 23Rd July 1984]

July 1984 had been a mixed month with quite unsettled weather at times but with relatively little rain. There had been a lovely sunny spell with increasing temperatures from the 3rd onwards with a heatwave around the 5th to 8th with maximum temperatures reaching 29~30 deg.C. A thundery outbreak early on the 9th brought little rain to local areas in southern England but heavier rain and thunderstroms further North. York Minster was hit by lightning and damaged in the subsequent fire on the 10th.

A cooler N.W.ly situation took over with weak Atlantic fronts moving S.E. with some light frontal rain but also sharp showers on the 12th~14th. This situation favours heavy shower development in East Anglia and that region enjoyed some cool N.W.ly instability thunderstorms on the afternoon of the 15th. Further west, this was the start of a dry period but with pleasant sunshine and warm temperatures. A warm front introduced muggy air around the northern periphery of an anticyclone on the afternoon of the 18th. The next few days were very warm with sunshine at times and by the 21st, it looked like settled condiitons were in order. That afternoon, a small 'heat low' developed over central England with large convective clouds but just not enough energy to kick off storms. On the Sunday 22nd 'Farmers Forecast', I was pleased to hear of an increasing thundery risk but the chances of a storm were small. However, by the evening of the 22nd, thing looked a little more exciting and with more potential. There were reports of isolated thundery showers in the west London area on the Sunday evening.

On the morning of the 23rd, the BBC1 Breakfast Time forecast by Francis Wilson warned of afternoon thunderstorms to the west of London. A very warm and sunny morning and early afternoon with temperatures up to 27.5 deg.C brought increasing altostratus and convective cloud. I distinctly remember looking out to the west (over towards the Hook direction) at around 3 pm and seeing odd reddish orange tinged clouds. On walking home from school I jokingly said that we are going to have a BIG thunderstorm this evening. I was not serious about my forecast as I only had a few days of term left to live down any jibes about getting it wrong and I just wanted to show off a bit! My forecast however came very true and a very excting event unfolded over the next two hours. Up to the wonderful 33 cm snow enjoyed on Monday 2nd February 2009, the thunderstrom of Monday 23rd July 1984 was my best weather event. It now stands in a close second position.

Having got home from school, I noticed the sky was darkening to the S.W. alhtough the surface wind direction was N.E.ly. There seemed to be a convergence overhead and I was becoming increasingly hopeful of an exciting event especially as 23rd July 1983 was still fresh in my mind! At 4:12 pm there was the first rumble of thunder. The next was at 4:16 pm and the lightning and thunder increased to follow and there were a scattering of rain droplets of about 1.5~2 cm on the paving slabs. At around 4:30 pm the thunder became louder with some lovely loud overhead cracks and loud enough to sound 'dangerous'. The sky was very dark to the S.E. and I started to grumble, "I bet some ******d is getting a fantastic event out of this". As it happened, areas to the S.E., such as Farnham, had moderate showers but no heavy rain. My friend at Alton reported seeing a huge cumulonimbus to the North and was frustrated that he was missing the storm and it looked like Fleet was getting it 'full on'.

Having ventured into the garden and walkd around for a while enjoying the overhead thunder and expecting nothing more than a good electrical storm or 'dry' thunderstorm I was walking across the patio and was hit by large rain drops which made spots 3~3.5 cm on the paving slabs. I could already see rain lashing on the garage roof next door and realised that we were probably about to get a good dose. Having got back indoors, I remained rooted at the back door and started my brand new Walkman to record this part of the storm having already got some good thunder already. Having started at approximately 4:42 pm, the rain quickly became very heavy and I decide to take some pictures. I only had 5 pictures left on the 35 mm film so had to be careful what I took! The first photo was at about 4:50 pm during the ordinary very heavy rain where about 8 mm had fallen by now.

The rain increased in intensity and became torrential and around 4:57 pm the phone rang and it was my Mum to say she would not walk home from work in this. Already excited I said something to the effect, "we're going to get over an inch out of this", and not really expecting this and just expecting the usual cessation of rain and thunder moving away, I was even more excited when I started to hear a loud cracking sound on the skylight. In my wisdom as a keen 15 year old amateur weatherman I forgot that a storm like this may produce hail - LARGE HAIL! (I remember watching David Attenborough's "Living Planet" and the severe thunderstorm with large hail and tornado earlier in the year). At about 5 pm, the severest phase was reached with incredible torrential hail, most of the hailstones being 10 mm in diameter for a few minutes. The noise on the skylight was deafening. Meanwhile the garden was getting flooded to depths I had never seen before and I was still recording all this. The second picture shows the hail during the most intense stage, probably around 5:05 pm.

Returning to the rear of the house, after about 5:05 pm the hail became smaller and dissappeared, but the torrential rain continued. A make shift raingauge put outside recorded 24 mm after the hail had knocked it over. The flooding in the garden was impressive, as seen in the next two pictures.

After 5:10 pm, the rain became lighter and then had died out by 5:15 pm. There were rumbles of thunder to the N.E. until about 5:30 pm. Little thunder was heard during the torrential rain and hail which was thought to be the storm 'spending' itself but a better explanation was that the intensity of the precipitation was masking it!

I ventured out and measured 35 mm rainfall on my basic gardeners raingauge as seen in the next picture.

The flooding subsided and the paths were coated in silt and mud which had washed down from flower beds and the slight slope from N.W. to S.E. in the garden. My mother, finally walking home from work reported her offices had flooded, many cars in the neighbouring road had broken down and that the small 50 cm wide stream at the bottom of the road, which is normally no deeper than 3 cm was an overflowing torrent. A few hailstones remained on ground that had not flooded and were dutifully collected and stored in the freezer.

My 35 mm compared well with the official wettest of 43 m at Beaufort Park in Berkshire. However, I have always wondered if my total would have been much higher as some of the hail could have bounced out of the gauge and my mini-raingauge measured 24 mm after the hail. Winds were light during the storm but I remember a few lines of lashing rain racing N.E. along the patio towards the end of the storm. The wind was not sufficent to disturb the trees during the event and all tree debris downed was due to the large hail.

I was a temporary celebrity at school the next day, proving that interesting weather events generate conversation with people who don't normally want to chat, and I found out form a friend in Hartley Wintney (about 7 km to the N.W.) that it remained sunny with no rain and just distant thunder. Apparently, the edge of the storm was here as there were reports of 10 mm diameter hail on the outskirts of this village. The school playground and roads looked like a building site with mud, sand and silt washed everywhere. I was also told that the main River Hart feeder stream which runs through the Calthorpe Park Estate burst its banks. The water level increased from 5 cm to just under a metre in less than half an hour - a true flash flood.

The 23rd July 1984 will be long remembered but since then there have been similarly good thunderstorms but none quite as intense or prolonged. Interestingly, the next occasion that I saw large hail was on the 23rd July 1996 when at Guildford, but that's a different story.

I hope readers enjoy this report and can add any memories of their own regarding this event, the summer of 1984 and other home grown convectional rainfall events.

[The 'no Storms Club 2009' Continued......]

As promised about a month ago, I would do research into the amount of thunder experienced in the FLEET, HANTS and GUILDFORD, SURREY areas, to see how much of a decline there has been. The data is the number of days of thunder heard over a defined period and is not an indication of the number of individual thunder events in a day.

Data for Fleet goes back to 1983, which was an impressive year for thunderstorms whereas Guildford data is from 1997. I have used a 25 year mean for the Fleet data and 10 year mean for the shorter sampling period at Guildford.

Days of thunder per month at GUILDFORD, 1997 to present.

Days of thunder per month at FLEET, 1983 to present.

This is not a representation of all locations but there does not seem to be an overall decrease in thunder as conditions have varied throughout the period. At Fleet, 1983 was a very thundery year followed by a disappointing period in 1990 and 1991 then 1997 and 1998 followed by increased activity in 2006. Current conditions are weakening again as seen in the last year.

There have only been 7 days with thunder from 21st July 2008 to 21st July 2009. This is not the worst period as there were only 6 days between 1st August 2003 and late July 2004.

The difference of data at Guildford shows how a few miles can make such a difference. Although the sampling period is much smaller than that for Fleet, there seems to be more days of thunder per annum at Guildford than Fleet. The biggest differences were in 1998 (Fleet, 8 days and Guildford, 15 days) and 1999 (Fleet, 13 days and Guildford, 23 days) whereas other years showed less difference such as 2006 (Fleet, 21 days and Guildford, 23 days). Overall the 10 year (1998~2007 mean) was 11.5 days / year at Fleet and 16.3 days / year at Guildford.

Overall, the best thundery years were 1983, 1999 and 2006. 2000 and 2001 were pretty good too. At Fleet, in the earlier years, 1984 and 1987 were also quite good.

The worst years were 1990 and 1996 with a paltry 7 days and the 1996~1998 period (especially at Fleet) of being of protracted low activity.

Like any process in nature, there seems to be a 'boom and bust' pattern where low activity periods are followed by months or even years with increased days of thunder observations. A recent example was the poor end to 2005 and late start in 2006 to be followed by a bumper year.

I hope this is of interest.

Although not a member of the No Storms Club anymore - I promised some time ago I would post an article on the incidence of thunder. I put this in the "What's happened to our storms?" post inadvertantly.

[What Has Happend To Our Storms?]

As promised about a month ago, I would do research into the amount of thunder experienced in the FLEET, HANTS and GUILDFORD, SURREY areas, to see how much of a decline there has been. The data is the number of days of thunder heard over a defined period and is not an indication of the number of individual thunder events in a day.

Data for Fleet goes back to 1983, which was an impressive year for thunderstorms whereas Guildford data is from 1997. I have used a 25 year mean for the Fleet data and 10 year mean for the shorter sampling period at Guildford.

Days of thunder per month at GUILDFORD, 1997 to present.

Days of thunder per month at FLEET, 1983 to present.

This is not a representation of all locations but there does not seem to be an overall decrease in thunder as conditions have varied throughout the period. At Fleet, 1983 was a very thundery year followed by a disappointing period in 1990 and 1991 then 1997 and 1998 followed by increased activity in 2006. Current conditions are weakening again as seen in the last year.

There have only been 7 days with thunder from 21st July 2008 to 21st July 2009. This is not the worst period as there were only 6 days between 1st August 2003 and late July 2004.

The difference of data at Guildford shows how a few miles can make such a difference. Although the sampling period is much smaller than that for Fleet, there seems to be more days of thunder per annum at Guildford than Fleet. The biggest differences were in 1998 (Fleet, 8 days and Guildford, 15 days) and 1999 (Fleet, 13 days and Guildford, 23 days) whereas other years showed less difference such as 2006 (Fleet, 21 days and Guildford, 23 days). Overall the 10 year (1998~2007 mean) was 11.5 days / year at Fleet and 16.3 days / year at Guildford.

Overall, the best thundery years were 1983, 1999 and 2006. 2000 and 2001 were pretty good too. At Fleet, in the earlier years, 1984 and 1987 were also quite good.

The worst years were 1990 and 1996 with a paltry 7 days and the 1996~1998 period (especially at Fleet) of being of protracted low activity.

Like any process in nature, there seems to be a 'boom and bust' pattern where low activity periods are followed by months or even years with increased days of thunder observations. A recent example was the poor end to 2005 and late start in 2006 to be followed by a bumper year.

I hope this is of interest.

[Thursday / Friday Storm Discussion]

Two storm systems in Guildford this evening (Thursday) and was lucky enough to be working outdoors in the first event and walking home in the second!

A pleasant surprise as I thought the activity wouldn't get started until after midnight.

Altostratus with increasingly threatening sky gradually thickens from the west although the ground wind direction was S.E.ly. There was still blue sky to the east at 8 pm. A sudden heavy shower at 8:05 pm moved away and the first thunder was at 8:14 pm. The main activity arrived at 8:24 pm with several good flashes of lightning and reasonably loud rumbles. The lightning was mostly yellow or orange in this storm and all the discharges seen were cloud to cloud and there were no cloud to ground discharges seen. Moderate rain from 8:20 pm became very heavy at 8:39 pm to 8:41 pm then 8:49 pm to 8:52 pm with much surface water. The last lightning from this storm was seen to the E.N.E. at 9:10 pm when there were clear blue patches in the altostratus and stratocumulus to the west.

Periods of light rain became heavy at 9:55 pm with more thunderstorm activity from 9:57 pm. Lightning was cloud to cloud with a blue colour this time and as in the first cell, some forked lightning was seen as well as the general sheet lightning reflections. Rain was continuous until about 11:30 pm but less heavy after 10:45pm. Thunderstorm actvity lasted until 10:46 pm.

Not bad - the second thunder event in 9 days - and I wasn't really expecting very much this time.

[Convective/storm Discussion]

Torrential rain and rumbles here, a weak storm but a storm nonetheless, but clearing from the SW, that makes at least 1 thunderstorms every week for the last 4 weeks, the last storm being this time last week.

And aparrently the SE is storm starved! T'is been a very thundery summer here.

I hear you JShaw - sadly the more intense precip just missed me to my E, however there is another cell which has rapidly intensified to my SSW and is en route for here.

Seeing as the cell you received was electrical, there is nothing to suggest this one wont be either. IF I do get some thunder in the next 20-30 minutes, it will be a shock to say the least as I was far from expecting anything

And I also agree the SE has not been storm starved so far this year, in fact far from it. What we do have to acknowledge though is most of the thunder days have been localised, exc this time last week which was far more widespread. Poor MW and TN9 and seen virtually nothing while us a bit further NW have seen a lot.

As Harry quoted, NW parts of London have hit the jackpot several times this summer while other areas have missed out.

Guildford has seen only ONE thunder outbreak this summer and there have been only two 'thunder days' in 2009 so far (Wednesday 15th April & Tuesday 7th July). I have never seen such a year (or summer) which has been so deficient in thunder in my locality, for so long, when there has been so many days of activity over the U.K. and even the S.E. in general.

This current situation is just another letdown - just like the endless S.W.ly's suffered last summer, which was also remarkably free of thunder.

I trust tomorrow will be another day mind blowing excitement in Central Southern / Western S.E. England or Guildford. :lol:

[For Everyone That Is Feeling The Pain]

Great stuff, absolutely hilarious.

The wording was brilliantly timed and certainly summed up the way I felt last Thursday afternoon and evening.

Describing the film to my colleagues at work had them in stitches too, as it sounded like the rantings from someone very familiar to them.

[Convective/storm Discussion]

Rainfall total at Guildford was 29.5 mm today. This actually fell in less than 12 hours. This is the highest total since 13th December 2008. Such an impressive total is unusual in this W.N.W.ly with embedded trough situation.

Incidentally, much of the decent thunder and heavy showers in the summer's of 1996 and 2001 came from repeated synoptics like those of today. Heat storms were disappointing in '96 and '01 but unstable cool weather brought the goods.

[Convective/storm Discussion]

The thunderstorms today were the first of any significance in Guildford since 24^th April 2008. Thunder was heard on 15^th April so this is the first storm with rainfall in 2009.

A few light showers before 11 am were superseded by increasing convective cloud. There was a single quite loud clap of thunder at 11:19 am, which was met by cheers from workmen outside the room where I was having a meeting. A heavy shower followed at 11:25 am to 11:45 am. The cloud clearance led to an impressive Cb moving away towards London. There was further Cb’s upwind so the potential was there for more fun.

The next shower arrived at 12:20 pm and was short lived.

I took a bike ride up to Pewley Downs to photograph this convective cloud and was treated to the next shower arriving. The shower was moderate to heavy at 1:11 pm to 1:24 pm with an especially heavy burst in the last minute or so.

Having got soaked, even though sheltering, the 4.5 mile ride home in sunny periods allowed me to almost totally dry out. The strength of the sun bode well for what would arrive next.

There was a threatening sky approaching at 2:15 pm and the next shower arrived at 2:25 pm and lasted to 2:40 pm. The rain was heavier than the previous shower. There was a loud crack of thunder as the shower moved away at 2:41 pm then further activity to 3 pm. A single CC fork was seen to the East at 2:46 pm. There was quite an active cell to the S.W. with quite loud thunder at 3:16 pm to 3:34 pm.

The sky became threatening again at 4:30 pm and the heavy rain arrived at 4:38 pm when there was also a loud clap. The rain became torrential with a brief period of hail during this most intense period at 4:45 pm to 4:49 pm. The thunder ended at 5:02 pm but there was a further shower to 5:10 pm.

A day of impressive weather with the rainfall being close to 25 mm – I will post the result when I do the morning observation tomorrow.

[The 'no Storms Club 2009' Continued......]

The day has arrived to leave the No Storms Club.

There was one loud clap of thunder at 11:19 am. I was in a meeting but luckily the window was fully open. The thunder was accompanied by cheers outside!

A heavy shower (preceded by a very dark sky) at 1:11 pm to 1:24 pm surprisingly did not produce thunder.

The main event was loud thunder on the back edge of a torrential shower at 2:41 pm. There were several good rumbles to follow lasting to 3:34 pm.

As I write, another shower has arrived with good rumbles starting from 4:38 pm and is continuing. This shower produced some hail at 4:45 pm. Despite some good thunder, lightning has been mostly absent up to now (except one CC fork at 2:46 pm), but due to the darkness associated with this current shower, some more CC lightning was seen this time.

I will post a detailed account of today's long awaited excitement later. This is probably the best thunderstorm since Thursday 24th April 2008.

Finally, I wish those who are still in the No Storms Club some fulfillment asap and that 2009 may end up not being too storm deficient after all.

My promised research account into statistics regarding the annual numbers of thunder days for the Guildford area will be posted up when I have found all the data and checked it.

[The 'no Storms Club 2009' Continued......]

Nothing here either - again.

Light shower around 10:20 am then just more passing clouds, sunny periods and an irritating gusty wind.

Met Office has weather warnings out for everyone except Wales currently, so it looks like the usual weather warning jinx is in operation.

Lets hope things might improve tomorrow when the wind becomes more N.W.ly and lighter, a situation which has been known to favour the Surrey area where convection gets a chance to develop.