Evening thunder

Just updated again and is better! -3/-4C, strong winds, and heavy snow.. have I moved to New England?

Well that was nice, had a brief snow shower that looked lovely falling. Not much but a slight dusting left behind (a touch more in Sidmouth where I was). Not as much as some have had though Not nearly as cold here as many, -2.2C now. It's possible the wind manages to drop out for a while tonight, but maybe not which would be a shame as it's our only chance to get the notable mins that I'd get if it did. In other news, yes please!!

Brr, -4.5C this morning, not exceptional on inversion nights quite notable with a breeze and no inversion. For parts of South Devon/Cornwall, that missed out on much of the snow in events in 2010 etc, it looks like Tomorrow could be your day for something with that line of showers likely to come ashore (will probably just miss me). Then it could be a watch for some interestingly low dew points for some later tomorrow. Thursday-Friday looks 'interesting', slight adjustments in the right direction could be a right mess for some too with snow/freezing rain/cold rain etc.

I agree with your recent posts and others about how frustrating this would be if the low behaves all wrong and we miss this 'golden ticket' for a major non-marginal event in the S/SW. Although the models have trended slightly in the right direction, we may see snow on Friday too or a right mess of snow/sleet/rain/freezing rain. I can probably be content with that (Well I'll probably have to be lol) at least if we get a sub zero, windy, hopefully at least a bit snowy Thursday. Nice to see all of the SW getting a good 'freeze' at night to, not just the prone lower areas leaving some hills struggling to get much below zero. I suppose it's a bit strange in a way. The only weather that exists is what actually happens but if we hadn't seen what 'could have been' from some computes, we would probably be happier with what is happening. This area seems to do ok for frost at least in more prone areas, but snow is the hard bit. How did you do in 2010 and 2009? Here December 2010 had nearly a foot of snow on the 20th which lay around until the 26th (lying snow from the 17-26th in total), January gave 6cm lasting for several days though there was a bit more towards your area I thought (before that, it was several dustings with 2cm max for my house over 10 years!) February 2009 was a disappointment at my low level house but nearby hills had 6 inches and I saw over a foot in Mid Devon. Jan 2013 also a disappointment on low lying windward coasts, more inland I think but I was in Surrey and only saw 1 day before being whisked away on a university field trip to South Spain. I've still yet to seen a proper windy snowy front or 'blizzard' like we used to get occasionally. Had a couple 'infamous' misses. Funnily enough, for the South Devon and Cornwall coasts that missed out on most of the above, Tomorrow could be your day for something.

I have been watching that, if anything it seems things have trended away from that to me. Met warning gone and also gone from their forecast now. ECM for instance gets little into us although I feel South Devon/Cornwall is likely to see it, and we could see a brief something. Also there's a trend that the low behaves all wrong for us IMO, with the main precip shield going towards Ireland Thursday. ECM and especially GFS only show light stuff for us before it turns too marginal (both uppers and surface temps) when a front arrives into Friday. ECM temp maps (weather.us) now have it above freezing and marginal by 9pm Thursday, and by midnight, only Exmoor is clinging to below zero surface temps. Midday Friday and it's +8C. Met Office forecast is worse this morning too. Thought I might feel a bit more optimistic this morning but I don't really. I can see the signs of us missing this rare opportunity for a major/non marginal event in the far south & SW with such a cold airmass.

Hmm.. I'm not feeling too optimistic this evening. ECM is still not good for my location.. marginal by 9pm Thursday (so no ice days from this spell on that) and precipitation quite light before that time. GFS gives a few hours of snow overnight before it turns to rain too. Better further N/E in the region. UKMO probably better though maybe still tuning to rain/freezing rain due to 850's of 0 to +2C. Also, models now push sub -15C 850's north of here on Weds night.. with temps/night minima forecasts not quite as cold as a result (previously ECM showed -6C with wind..), so not quite as remarkable now. Ah well, should see something and it will be interesting to watch things this week. Temp/dew point dropping away here. +1.4C but the DP a pretty low -7.5C.

To be fair ECM gives freezing rain up to Bristol before turning back to snow for most of the south - north of a line from roughly Bournemouth to Barnstaple. (well covered by others in the actual model thread). Problem is, it's marginal at best by 9pm Thursday for me! (and so that's zero ice days from this spell).. and precipitation before that is pretty light. Also I'm not interested in another chilly week afterwards if it removes my snow before that. I could hope the depth of the small low is overdone, and hence the northward push.. but it looks closer to the GFS before that anyway so will it be?

ECM looks closer to GFS at t+96.. Don't need to see any more, know where this is going. Edit: Yep, southerly flow in quickly here. Don't care if uppers are a bit below zero, that's due to a wrap around of modified air not the continental air mass. Good for the midlands north.

Well, the UKMO is an improvement (though still gets positive 850's over my location). GFS = worse. Only some night-time snow before it's washed away by daylight. Hopefully the UKMO is closer (though I suspect it would turn milder after T+144 anyway). A couple ECM runs showed 5+ ice days with lying snow continuing into next week for Exeter, with very low minima. That's worth the ramping and historic labels. Shame that looks to be almost off the table now. With this frigid airmass mixed out, anything afterwards is unlikely to be 'worth it' down here. Ok so there could be a major event in the SW, but that could still be after dark and melt by dawn. One possible ice day Thursday, but not really a historic 'spell' here even with very cold uppers (though any brief flirtation with -15C 850s may pass north of me anyway). A bit like a brief flirtation with 20C uppers in summer doesn't necessarily mean a historic heatwave. This easterly is it for me. After mid March I'm not really looking for cold synoptics, they have to be more exceptional for the time of year to be worth it down here (other than the normal frost/wintry showers). We're having one chance with exceptional charts now, and it's very unlikely to be bettered. Don't get me wrong, I will be looking forward to what I can experience this notable week (outside work) and whatever Thursday-Friday brings! I'm still relatively happy about that (apart from GFS suggesting I might struggle to even get an ice day on Thursday now..) Just a little disappointing compared to what 'could have been'. Yes this is an IMBY post. Looks better the further north you go (like this winter in general).

Tbh I can't see any of those double figure temps temps or the temps in France/the near continent the latest observations (one site I use is xcweather.co.uk). Today has been a cracker here, 100% sunshine and reached 6.9C. A min of -1.1C here and no inversion so colder higher up (lanes had ice one where water has seeped out fields). Colder air arrives tomorrow, at your altitude you should see ice days Monday-Thursday. Might get one here too on Thursday, and hopefully some snow (with strong winds too). Though this may turn to rain with less cold air Friday and into the weekend, which I'm a bit disappointed about, but we still could get a major event before that happens.

Bit of a side track, but I've wondered how accurate the uppers are on these charts for a long time ago? I assume they are a reconstruction/calculation as I doubt they had actual data for them especially in 1891. I've have noticed significant differences in the 850's between the 'NOAA 20th Cen' and 'CFSR' archives on Wetterzentrale for some dates. That's not to take away from your point in any way and I agree with it, just something I've wondered about. With regards to the models this morning, ECM is still too far north for me in the far south/SW if I want to enjoy anything this weekend (as are all the main models). Better away from the south though and great for the north. Good old maritime Ireland will probably quite well again. It still gives a good snow event, even a blizzard down here before it starts thawing before dawn for me though.

Problem is, we are seeing the latest model updates come out and the trend is clear. The BBC forecasts are often a touch behind, as might be the Met Office's written forecasts, as good as they are they are not infallible (and do they have a better model than the ECM?). Of course the BBC don't use the Met Office now anyway. Having said that, that is correct up to at least Thursday (and probably Friday away from the south).

Well because there might be 0 ice days and no notable minima here, and uncertain if/how much snow will filter through to my area. Ok yes a notable few days, but I'll have to work in a cold minimally heated building next week (proper cold starts Monday), miss much of the interest and have it all washed away by the weekend when I could get out and enjoy it. So I'm also jaffa cakesed off with the timing. I understand your point but it has annoyed me a bit in part due to my location. But then if I was too annoyed I'd have broken my own rule that FI is FI no matter how the models appear to agree. Oh well, guess I can't help getting sucked in a bit too. It could backtrack, but I'm not expecting it to correct south enough for me. When the high res operationals all latch on to something at day 5/6 it rarely seems to get undone.

A few thoughts. ECM 00z was a massive BANK Would have been perfect, the low gives significant snow and backs off allowing it to stay very cold over snow fields. So probably a 'historic' cold spell. Problem is the move to get the low too far north on all models now. Even if we did stay in the cold air, it won't be that cold without snow cover. The wind also stops minima getting lower than -4C on the forecasts for me. Notable to get that low with wind, but we get that low nearly every winter, and had -14.0C in December 2010. Exeter Aiport had -16.5C. Wind makes a huge difference for low levels/valleys around here. In contrast, higher hills especially the Moors may experience their coldest temps for a while... However, another disappointing thing is -15C uppers look not to arrive so much (or be v brief/go north of me), Where are they on the ECM? Scotland also seems to get colder uppers despite getting a longer sea track, and they do best from northerlies and have done much better this winter. So a notable cold snap spell, but a historic spell it is unlikely to be (for here).

Now that's a rampable forecast from the ECM for me! https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Exeter/long.html(It actually shows about 16mm water equivalent Thursday night into Friday)5 ice days and Friday having a max of -3C with snow. Also -11C next Monday morning.That's the perfect solution of the low getting close enough to bring a proper snow event, and then backing off to leave a slackening cold air mass. What a nice thought. Wouldn't be surprise if it's a bit closer to GFS in reality though esp as the UKMO brings the low over us.

Now that's a rampable forecast from the ECM! https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Exeter/long.html (It actually shows about 16mm water equivalent Thursday night into Friday) 5 ice days and Friday having a max of -3C with snow. Also -11C next Monday morning. That's the perfect solution of the low getting close enough to bring a proper snow event, and then backing off to leave a slackening cold air mass. Not expecting it like that but a nice thought

Not posted for a while.. We actually had a slight dusting of snow on Monday the 12th. 0.1C right now due to a breeze (fell to -1.8C before midnight). Anyway very interesting next week, although snow isn't guaranteed everywhere, for instance last night's ECM looked dry for me https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Exeter/long.html (This will update to this morning's run soon but hasn't yet) Yesteray morning's in contrast showed about 20cm of snow on Friday. With the dry air, it's likely there won't be that much visible frost at night even though it's well below freezing with a breeze blowing (penetrating frost).. but then the ground could turn white via another mechanism

Lol, or because the +26C was a new February record temperature in New York and a big population centre so thought it was a point of interest to mention, whereas the cold in other areas is normal or not record breaking? The thought of 'propaganda' probably didn't even cross their mind. Actually the last time I remember them talking about USA weather (may have been occurrences since, I don't watch all forecasts), was them talking about severe cold/snow earlier this winter with -39C being a record for a certain location...

ECM back on the naughty step I see - talk of it having been dreadful and lagging behing all winter etc, when really there's no evidence for that. If anything it's seemed more consistent than most to me recently, though yes a bit of filp flopping at days 8-10 like all models. Someone posted charts showing that at the moment it is being more 'stable' at days 6/7. Never mind, the GFS at T+288 and GEFS at t+384 mean epic ramp time

I've always preferred living in the now and reliable timeframe (just a problem when it's boring). But the amount of ramping and garden paths in the MOD thread seems worse than ever this year, and seems to get worse every year. I've literally seen ramping charts at 2 weeks away that don't even show an easterly, because there's one for Denmark that could reach us if the output changes a little... Whatever boat allowed a favourable quick SSW response with high latitude blocking suddenly setting up, may well have sailed. I thought there were dangers in how bits of PV behave, and of the MJO stalling anyway.. maybe I should have highlighted these and not thought I was being overly pessimistic in the face of other far more knowledgeable members (and they are). Though I'm a a bit skeptical that the teleconnections are as dominant as is sometimes portrayed. Too often have forecasts based on them failed in recent years. Also, many examples of a low behaving slightly differently upstream completely changing things. Such as when it looked good last winter. It's not that they aren't a valuable tool, they are, as are posts about them. However they are prone to some of the same issues as other forecasting methods.. they don't always lead to the same result, and can be modelled incorrectly. Forecasts of MJO activity or whatever are produced by the very same global model runs that model our weather (so they can't be an entity that's separate to/above the models?). Only if using verified (or nearly verified) actual data to suggest what might happen based on analogue data can I see it as an approach separate to the models (although how bad are the models at integrating these lagged effects into their projections anyway, and why do ensembles always give widely varying outcomes at 1 week plus if they always start with the same/similar MJO data etc, if it's not due not other factors?) That's why I feel short-medium range forecasts using these tools on their own, are not always better than using model data. Seasonal forecasts may well be, although the Met Office seasonal model seems to have done well this winter. Basically this long post is leading to my point that FI is FI, and there's not really any getting around that no matter what method you use or what level of SSW and MJO wave are forecast. So I should go back to enjoying whatever weather arrives, and not get excited by forecasts further than 5-7 days away especially if not all models agree (and even if they do, they can change).

Very true

I used to have the 'Home and Dry' app for IOS with radar and forecast maps etc. It does cost £3 but was worth it for me as I really liked it https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/home-and-dry/id654608885?mt=8 I just wish they'd do an android version but they never have!

Hmm, I wonder what has caused the ECM to go from a firm yes to an emphatic no. Is it seeing something different in its modelling of the SSW or teleconnections (after all a few days ago we were highlighting how it should it model the effects of the SSW more accurately due to better resolution/layers etc). Or, does it suggest that upstream differences such as how a low behaves can actually play the winning card. (Edit, Bluearmy gives a clue, differences in the strat right up to 10hpa.) ECM vs GFS at T+192 Maybe we'd just be taking the longer route, but I don't like doing that. The sun is strengthening, and it gives us more time to get lost and run out of petrol. Something that seems to happen quite a lot for us. So in these circumstances I can't get excited. There would be a time that I can, e.g. when all models agree on a cold snowy easterly within T+120 Time to enjoy today's unusually chilly westerly with a risk of snow showers even here in the SW.

Tbh, for Northern Ireland, West Scotland, and some of the ROI, Sunday's charts are probably as good as they'd get from a late Feb easterly (unless a rare 'special' one). -9/-10C 850's and lots of snow showers, 0-2C temps between the showers, sub-zero in heaver showers. Wales/NW England might not do too bad at least on hills, and there will probably be some snow showers to low levels even here in the SW. Regarding the SSW, some runs have been pretty impressive, but then there's runs like the 00Z ECM and its ensembles which are poor. Also I hear the (admittedly ridiculous) BBC 14 day forecasts use a modified form of the EPS. Well I hope not, it's not moved from 8-9C maxima right to the end for me. I've also seen some strat animations where the small section vortex gets sucked out over N Europe towards Greenland (to join the Canadian vortex centred slightly west of Greenland).. possible fly in the ointment? I wonder how the 00z ECM models it. Then there's Tamera's post last night. If that realism proves to be wise, it seems the teleconnections are just as bad as the models in that they usually find something to go wrong. Anyway, how a low decides to behave upstream often seems to dictate how the pattern evolves (case in point the ECM) I'm trying not to get sucked in too much. Time to just follow the weather normally. If something does happen, then nice.

I've noticed the website and TV maps don't show the detailed maps today. I hope that's a temporary issue (though maybe some take that level of detail too literally?) I also agree, it needs zooming a bit more on the TV.. but then the UK is the wrong shape if we want to include Shetland and the Channel Islands on the same map? (I think the old forecasts got around that partly due to the tilt, with the disadvantage of Scotland appearing small). And I also agree that it seems to exaggerate snow on the graphics. I mean is that really likely? I think it may also exaggerate 'hail showers' on the website/app forecasts too. Also, every single day seems X weather and breezy' no matter how breezy it actually is? I prefer the Met Office video forecast graphics on the whole, much clearer distinction between cloud, clear sky and rain etc. They also seem to get around the zoom issue to an extent with a slight tilt. Just watched the latest forecasts - aha, they had a coloured temperature map. and showed the north/south separately tomorrow which looked a bit clearer. I do think with continued tweaks/additions it may end up not too bad though.