Evening thunder

I did see a few extremely rare snow grains on Tuesday and Tuesday evening! Anyway, its been a nice seasonal feeling cold snap however the last 3 nights have not been as cold as they could have been. Monday night had stubborn cloud at times so it only dropped to -3.5C when it looked like the coldest night of the winter. Tuesday night stayed above freezing due to wind until 4am, then fell to -3.0C. The cloud was forecast by most models (though it did manage -1.7C and I just had a bit of rain at -0.2C lol), however it's still kind of annoying to have 24-30 hours of cloud before the front, when places like Hurn and Southampton eastwards got to -6C. As a result we didn't get the coldest minimum of the winter from this spell. (I see -13C locally over the snow cover in North France and the front looks to turn to snow there easily! lol)

I feel similar to many others on here about this. The 14 day website forecast, well that's ridiculous as has been covered by others. However I think the observations (radar) page is ok. I do like that you can zoom out and see the whole world though lol (although the key for rainfall is wrong at higher intensities). The the place names are a bit too big IMO (and also too sparse until you zoom right in, e.g. Birmingham doesn't exist..), and the temp get displaced from their actual location. Also, It's not clear that you have to go full screen to zoom in/out and access some options. On the TV maps, Birmingham does exist but obscures central Wales. My location is just about covered by the 'Plymouth' label, which also obscures the Isle of Weight, and a considerable area south of me, so it's pretty annoying if the weather's coming from that direction. On the key, it looks like it will be pretty hard for some to tell the difference between snow, cloud and fog. Also, Scotland is shown better than before but it looks like it uses the Mercator projection, so Scotland is skewed bigger and the south smaller, relative to each other. In reality Devon etc is not far off the width of the far north of Scotland (Sutherland etc), but on the BBC's map it looks a lot smaller (At least what you can see of it between 'Cardiff' and 'Plymouth'). Finally, on TV forecasts why do they use the less detailed (global model?) charts for the national view even on the current day? I guess at least it would reduce the threat of some taking the exact placing and timing of every shower too literally.. I think part of the issue is it feels too zoomed out, though that could be a difficult one because otherwise Shetland and the Channel Islands might complain. It was the same on the SW regional forecast with it all squashed up on the top half of the screen to include the Channel Islands (but they then show them separately so that's not really needed). Despite this, it could grow on me with some tweaking to reduce these issues.

Night before last night stubbern cloud stopped what looked like the coldest night of the winter being so. Last night, wind kept it above freezing until 4am. There hasn't really been anything of note at all from this cold snap here (though Cornwall had snow yesterday), which is a shame, because there isn't necessarily anything of note coming. Models show it being a while away even if it does arrive (2 weeks plus). By then the sun's getting stronger (though that won't do too much to stop snow falling events yet), will there be deep cold to tap into etc. Whatever data Meteogroup use shows W-SW winds and minima/maxima of + 5/9C for me out to 20th Feb. These are the same model runs that produce the Stratosphere and MJO forecasts so not sure why I should dis-believe them (at least, any more than usual!), unless it's scientifically known that they aren't good at integrating the effects of the MJO and SSW's within the same model runs? Though some runs do show a favourable response, and of course and it may come later on.

The temp reached 5.1C in the sunny spells here today. Currently +2.1C and barely falling due to a total overcast since about 5:30pm.. which better bugger off! The forecast mins from the Met Office etc have seemed a bit high anyway, only going for -1/-2C despite showing it being clear and calm all night. I'd expect -5 or -6C here if that was the case in this airmass. The models can be quite poor with overnight minima (even taking account of me being a valley/cold spot). As for snow tomorrow here, well to that idea.. so the possible lowest min of the winter is what interests me more.

Seem to be a cold spot this morning. -4.0C here currently Very hard to find other stations as cold around here, seem to be generally +1C to -2C. Bits of stratocumulus around and clear spells Tonight should be the coldest night of the winter so far here (-4.7C in December to beat).

Well the GFS has been nice to look at, in how it held back the fronts on Thursday and the weekend for longer, bringing colder nights (the coldest of this spell Wednesday night) and then a lot more frosts with high pressure over us (followed by an easterly on one run..) However with how the ECM and UKMO didn't even move towards it, it couldn't be believed. It's kind of odd how the GFS did that and shows why it's 3rd place in the verification stats. UKMO Wednesday night: Met Office forecast now has cloud coming in on Wednesday, and +9C with rain on Thursday for me. Even more of a 'standard winter cold snap' than some were castrated for suggesting in the other thread then lol. Still, -4C here now and a couple nice frosts coming

Actually the GFS is also predicting temps of 4-5C in the SE on Monday so that's not very far fetched.. (although the BBC's 7C for London on Monday that I saw looked a bit high) ECM a bit more like 4C for most GFS/ECM shows 3C maxima quite common in the S/SE on Tuesday The Met Office forecasts look about right with 4C on Monday and and 3C on Tuesday for London.

Now that's kinda bad compared to what was shown before.. ECM and UKMO downgraded to bring in milder air on Wednesday night, Still in the mild sector Thurs night too.That just leaves a few cold days and only Monday night to get any interesting lows here but cloud from Tuesdays system could stop that.. and yep, just looked and the ECM does exactly that (no snow though), temps down temps down to -2C which rise again by dawn. really exciting! https://www.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Exeter/long.html At any rate, milder air will be in by the weekend probably giving yet another grotty Saturday. Who knows, If tomorrow fails to give decent sun, next weekend could be the 5th weekend in a row with barely any sun here! and I'll only have the slither of light before/after work to enjoy any of the cold spell. Does look like a 'standard winter cold snap', i.e a few sharp frosts for some and a bit of sleet/snow around for a few days. That was always possible (though you weren't allowed to say that in the MOD thread recently, or that it might be mostly dry). Although it's definitely better than nothing, I'll look forward to a few frosts if we manage any decent ones here and seasonal days. ECM etc wants to set up the PV over Greenland-Iceland so how long will it take to get to something from there? Beyond that who knows, we might from the MJO and strat influence, but one thing I've learnt over the years is that FI is FI, no excuses.

Ok so I'm looking forward to a few days of cold weather and some nice frosts ECM is nicer than that though as it gets the cold uppers further west, and will be cold all of next week with some good snow chances.. However, there's no guarantee it will be more than a few days, e.g. the UKMO would probably bring milder air in on Wednesday, the day after this chart Even so, there might be some pretty chilly incursions from the NW afterwards, and some nice eye candy in FI but that's FI.. Though in the MOD thread apparently if you say you aren't overwhelmed by the awesomeness of it all, you're a troll, wind up etc.. February could be interesting though, We will see...

That fooled me briefly before but but bear in mind that's 'Central Standard Time' which is 6 hours behind us, so those images are for 21:00 and 18:00 GMT

Well it was the 3rd almost completely dull sunless weekend in a row Reached 13.4C yesterday after an overnight low of 10.5C, and last night it dropped to 9.9C. January is now 1.2C above average and has a mean maxima so far of 10.0C. I'd like an easterly but also a crisp sunny/frosty high will do nicely too, along with the lengthening days at last.

Of course they don't always get it right like everyone but what thing are you referring to that they've got wrong? They never went for a cold winter and their seasonal maps/contingency planners forecasts seem to have done quite well really. Though there's lots of shorter term modelling that's important to forecasts/warnings, even if they don't show the charts that many want

Why is it a waste of money?

Reached 12C down here yesterday lol, got quite windy for a bit with gusts to 37mph on my station (valley site). Currently dull and drizzly with a temp of 8.9C, up from a low of 3.8C overnight. The drizzle is settling well. Met Office forecast had 'heavy rain' symbols from about 3am until late afternoon, but unsurprisingly the GFS seems to be closer with it's rainfall distribution. If the day's a write off like this I'd rather it was raining properly in some ways

Well once again it's the model showing the worst outcome which turns out correct.. even if it's the GEM. One might want to bet on the slightly nicer looking (briefly) ECM as it's the most accurate model on average, but you can bet your bottom dollar it won't be this time. I see little point in looking forward to winter in this part of the world. Roll on the spring blossom and longer days. Even if it's only a few degrees warmer with not much interesting weather around, it will feel better and I'll get to see/be in the outside world other than just at the weekend!

The ECM is predicting 850hpa temps for parts of the NE USA and SE Canada will go from -25/-30C to +10C in 5 days! 6th and 7th are frigid But by the 12th, what would be decent summer 850's for the UK: and then it goes very cold again by the 15th

Not that it's likely to happen like this at day 9!, but from an IMBY perspective the GFS's unusually cold westerly is quite interesting.. The freezing level and experience tells me that would be snow showers to sea level even in the SW (and there'd be big and heavy showers...). It would even stay at/below freezing in between them on the moors, not bad.. and better than any of the the (often exaggerated) easterly charts I saw posted.

Had that here recently (as Barbel/Ciderwithrosie posted), Infrequent thunder and lightning with driving hail/rain gave my station a gust of 54mph at 02:29. That's the joint 3rd highest in the last 10 years. Looks like it got from here to Poole in 45 mins, not bad going..

Just a note that as identified by posters in the SW regional thread, the 111mph reading in my previous post appears to be a mis-conversion of a 97km/h gust (They thought it was knots), which is actually 60mph. A rather more believable reading even if it could have been a bit stronger in exposure to flip boats like that. and today we've a couple showers, and there have been some sefrics around including a number just east of the Scilly Isles and the southern edge of Dartmoor this morning, and now Dorset so brief thunderstorms there.

Certainly raised my suspicions.. I thought with the flipped boats etc/tree damage it might have been stronger than 97 km/h, but that reading makes far more sense especially if the boats are particularly exposed or the anemometer slightly sheltered/not at 10m etc Anyway it reached 14.3C at 11:56 though it has now dropped back to 13.4C.

Feeling very mild this morning. Currently 13.4C and it reached 14.1C overnight, the mildest of the month. Saw on the local news about local flooding and several trees down in a park in Plymouth from yesterday morning's thunderstorm. Also, interesting reports of damage from the New forest area and apparently Mudeford had a gust of 111mph! with some pictures of quite a lot of damage to boats etc http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/15798698.PICTURES__Boats_overturn_at_Mudeford_Quay_after_97mph_gust_of_wind_is_recorded/ I went to a viewpoint at Sidmouth as the distant storm cells were moving east, and got this capture of lightning Lightning 29th December.mp4

A bit late, but I saw a fair bit of distant lightning from here yesterday, with 2 closer flashes/rumbles and some heavy showery rain Also the showers later in the morning had very strong winds with them, a gust of 47mph was the highest of the year on my station (53mph just up the road). Just a light breeze between the showers though. I went to the coast at Sidmouth and saw some distant lightning as it moved east. Lightning 29th December.mp4 News coverage and reports showed local flooding from the storm around Plymouth and south Cornwall/Devon with several trees down in a park in Plymouth. Also reports of damage to trees and buildings in the New Forest area, some interesting pictures of damage to boats etc at Mudeford Quay which apparently recorded a gust of 111mph! http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/15798698.PICTURES__Boats_overturn_at_Mudeford_Quay_after_97mph_gust_of_wind_is_recorded/

Rather interesting morning, some heavy showery rain and distant lightning became visible to the south around 6:30, then a couple closer flashes/rumbles and a good view as the rain cleared, saw a few distant forks and anvil crawler type bolts. Still flashing away as it drifted esst in the channel at 8-8:30am. At 7:15 a heavy shower with some pretty strong gusts temporarily hindered the view (39mph on my station, 49mph just up the road). and around 10am a large heavy shower with briefly very strong winds arrived! 47mph on my station which is the strongest of the year, and 53mph up the road. Felt properly stormy with the heavy rain and wind. Sun has come out now with only a light breeze gusting to 11mph.. but the next line is visible. Would have been interesting to get the thunderstorm and intense rain overhead like south Devon got, our ~5mm left a surprising amount of water on the roads earlier.

Ok the temp has only just risen crept up to 0.1C, still frosty and light rain has started with a bit of heavy precip about to arrive according to radar. Likely will be rain with the air too warm above the valley, but the ground is a bit frozen.

Well it looks like an elusive 'not all frost melts' day! Currently 1.2C with frost in the shade still, it did rise up to 4.1C briefly but patches of high cloud drifting across the sun allowed it to drop again. Feels very nice and seasonal, strange to think that by tomorrow morning it will all be gone, replaced by windy weather with an active front and possible convective interest/squall line etc http://www.estofex.org/