Evening thunder

There's no guarantee of course, but some places should see some thundery activity at least should be some intense downpours and chance of hail in places too. Probably not as strong as the storms in the channel that effected parts of S/E Devon at the end of September or the one that moved through Dorset/Somerset area early in October though. (though who knows..) It's encouraging to see quite a bit of Tstorm activity in what's coming our way though: http://www.sat24.com/ is also a good link to watch for general CB activity and lightning (if you have the lightning option checked) I haven't seen CAPE of over 1000 j/kg and LI below -4 into the channel before from this type of maritime air mass showery flow, at least not often and not in October. (1400 j/kg and sub -5 LI near Brest on the previous frame too) This along with decent activity out there now is why I think there might be a good chance for this time of year and for this set up of thundery activity especially around South and West coasts. Perhaps less inland admittedly though that's normal this time of year. As I'm home this weekend 3 miles from the coast of east Devon I'll be keeping an eye out tonight and have the camera battery charged just in case.

Already some activity to the SW: (I think this image will self update through the morning) Oh and yes please! Although oddly a town nearer to me that's 3 miles away from Honiton and my location, shows much less thunder Though I think the more important thing is on the Met Office forecast maps there are a reasonable number of thunder symbols and lots of heavy shower symbols from the early hours and through tomorrow, even if the text forecast for the SW only says isolated showers? Edit: to avoid any confusion I'm at home in east Devon this weekend, not up in Surrey, hopefully this increases my chances of seeing something.

It must have been, if it reversed the rotation of the earth!

I remember for summer those monthly charts were showing widespread anomalies of +5C over the sea to the north of the UK and around the Shetland Isles, which seemed a bit impossible to me considering we haven't recorded such summer anomalies on land in the UK before. So there was something wrong with them or the average used to calculate anomalies then, not sure if there still is, but having these warm/cold anomaly pools in the same places each month seems slightly suspicious

What have I just woken up in December? or has the world just cooled by 5 degrees Surely this time of year that would still just be rain/sleety showers away from northern hills with uppers of 0 to -5c by the time it spreads across most of the country? Similar to now perhaps. Kind of interesting meteorologically, and I would find it interesting along with any southern tracking lows following, but they wouldn't be giving a winter wonderland or such that many people want.. just dumpings of the wet stuff for most.

For where I live during uni holidays, in the Otter valley, east Devon: In terms of air frost, probably late October or early November on average, though in 2010 I had air frost on the 26th September.. min temp -0.1c. 2007: 12th November (evening) 2008: 22nd October 2009: 30th November (evening) 2010: 26th September 2011: 7th November 2012: 27th October (evening) quite varied though as you can see.. one time late September and the previous year we had to wait until the night which took us into December. For ground frosts it's earlier of course, September often gets within a few degrees of freezing, though I have no official way of recording ground frost.. however we had 3.0c on the 30th August 2010 and I saw a touch of frost in places! This year we got 4.2c in September at home so are probably still waiting. On average probably late September, or perhaps early October. Here near Egham it will be later in the year, as unlike home I'm not in any kind of valley or frost hollow. Not sure exactly when on average though.

It's not unusual for me to record October air frost at home in east Devon. Lowest temps each October were: 2007: 0.6c2008: -2.9c (oddly less than 24 hours later this happenend and my school recorded 187mm of rain..)2009: 0.9c 2010: -2.8c (and another -2.7c) 2011: 0.8c 2012: -1.4c So air frost seemingly happening every year since getting my station. In 2010 I had air frost on the 26th September, low -0.1c. Also ground frost and 3.0c on the 30th August. Quite a notable year for low minima that was. I am in a valley so more prone than surrounding higher ground, though some other nearby areas like Exeter airport get similar or even slightly lower mins. Not sure how the Egham area fairs, probably not that common here as most things seems more mundane here (apart from warmth/heat though I'm not here in Summer)

It's not that it should be like number 3, the jet stream is a naturally varied/wavy and changing thing. I believe all locations at this latitude can be and often are on the warm side of the jet stream, as is shown happening on the other side of the Atlantic (and looping right over Greenland!) on virtualsphere's image. The jet stream can tend to get stuck in general patterns within it's variability though. At the moment we just seem to be getting warm patterns more, some time down the line we will probably get cool/cold patterns dominate more again (like later last winter and spring, or many recent summers) Anyway things would be more boring if the jet stream was just a straight line :-)

Sometimes think the ATD lightning detection doesn't work that well, Blitzortung and that webcam showed far more flashes/strikes than the ATD has picked up.

That's a Kent clipper if I ever saw one. Hopefully some of the intense cells producing much of the lightning can move more north like some of the Anvil rains are, or new cells can develop further west (there are a few but not sure if they will become thundery)

Lightning every 2 seconds or so on that webcam now!

Don't think we even had heavy-ish rain here lol

Well only enough rain to wet the ground here, despite charts like the Met Office rainfall maps looking good yesterday or earlier, and showing more heavy/torrential cells/storms around here later, which of course also look like they won't happen now or will be further east! This is unlike home that gets more torrential rain and thunderstorms, with the weather coming out of the boring mode it was in for over 3 month where I didn't have a total over 8mm all summer, just after I go back to uni again. Of course more interesting stuff forecast for home later tonight but not here now. In my second year of uni now and still haven't even seen rain over 'heavyish' here like what would show about 4-8mm/hr on the radar, even briefly.. This place really does seem to be a s***hole for weather.. Sorry needed a slight rant.. lol

This does look promising too.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/egham#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&fcTime=1380693600&zoom=8&lon=-0.55&lat=51.43 Edit: just realised you will probably have to select the rainfall option and play through the timeslots to see what I mean

Yes but I chose Cambridge because that's your location, and the poster you originally quoted about this 19c figure is in Bedfordshire.. (to which you started this debate by telling them they should expect 14c instead)

The Met Office would beg to differ.. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/cambridge#?tab=climateTables&region=uk some parts of the SE/London have average daytime highs more like 20C. 19c isn't the normal average of the max+min temps (i.e what the CET uses), but recently they haven't been 19c, and people were saying the day temps were 19c.Reading some previous posts in this thread it seems the problem is the house temps for some reason, rather than it being 'hot' outside.

According to Netweather Radar some serious 6 hour rain accumulations in the channel, up to 200-250mm locally! Imagine if that had happened over land!

On satellite imagery those cells look just like the big ones we usually look at with envy over the continent in summer. What do people think the chances are this evening and tonight in the east Devon area? the BBC shows at least as many 'heavy showers' as it ever mentioned for this morning lol, and I could pop home albeit for less than 2 days.

Knew this would happen considering I've just gone back to uni in N Surrey aka no weather land..

Try to avoid coming onto this forum especially the model thread lol. Would probably be a bit annoyed frustrated but hey ho the weather will do what it wants I guess. I'd hope for some active Atlantic weather to add some interest, if it was repeated weeks on end of a Bartlett feeding mild mostly cloudy weather with a bit of drizzle/patchy rain then I'd get frustrated/bored with it.

Wind really picked up with the showers yesterday, had a gust of 40mph with and gusts of 35mph in other showers.That is actually the joint strongest gust recorded by my station this year. The synoptic chart didn't look very windy down here though.

Not much rain from the last shower but it really squalled things up about 10 minutes ago, had a gust of 40mph on my weather station which is actually the joint highest of the year. Actually some large drops and the main part of the shower came afterwards and lasted a few mins dampening the ground. Had a heavier one earlier though.

Lol so my brain is better than the entirety of scientific knowledge/thinking, therefore it's all clobbers. Sounds familiar..

Yeah it could be, many seem ok, but some young ones or recently planted ones and even some older ones I've seen showing signs.. for example the other day I saw some beech trees with orange/brown leaves, shouldn't be like that already!

Radar accumulation says I'm not far off other places, yet I've had 6mm lol