Nick L

Don't take any notice of the precipitation predictions this far out. The GFS will sort that out nearer the time. Get the cold first, then worry about precipitation. It will pop up out of nowhere nearer the time.

There is a fine line though between separating good and bad posts and isolating new members who genuinely want to learn and develop their knowledge. We have to be careful not to do the latter. However, I think we do need a new restricted thread where respected, knowledgeable members can post their thoughts. That way someone who is in a hurry can read a few of the latest comments on there rather than sift through some of the garbage we are seeing in the model thread in the last few days. There are certain members on this forum who post ultra negative/ultra positive comments in the model thread simply to get a reaction, something needs to be done about these as well, but that's for another discussion.

I think I just heard him explode with excitement

+96 isn't exactly FI, and that is where the tap starts to turn.

Well I would prefer to see posts from them getting it wrong but giving reasons with their prediction instead of the tripe we see in the normal model thread.

I would certainly vote for that. Those who know their stuff should have their own thread, that way the crap in the model thread would be cut out.

Met Office have jumped right off the fence with their outlook, going for wintry weather right through Christmas! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

I think I might join you there TEITS. Starting to get to me. God help us when we go back to classic mild muck (which will happen this winter, it wouldn't be a normal British winter without it). If people are moaning with charts like this just 96 hours away then they have absolutely no sense of perspective: http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091212/06/96/h500slp.png As you say, some people need to get a grip.

Absolutely. Fantastic run yet again, shame the whining WUMs are out in force this morning!

I am liking the 06z, cold from start to finish so far! Atlantic eventually comes crashing in at the end of FI, quite a trend now from the GFS so the cold spell will probably come to an end around Xmas.

As soon as the easterly clears off a belting northerly sets itself up by the looks of it: http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091212;time=06;ext=153;file=h850t850eu;sess=8f9c13e73c795cb0b5103476b58e78df;

christmas pudding to you too Neil Well done Netweather.

Very reminiscent of Feb this year, it was a very brief easterly - but the real fun and games lasted for days afterwards!

Much deeper cold making it's way in earlier compared to the 00z, great news: 00z: http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091212;time=00;ext=120;file=tmp850;sess=8f9c13e73c795cb0b5103476b58e78df; 06z: http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091212;time=06;ext=114;file=tmp850;sess=8f9c13e73c795cb0b5103476b58e78df;

Not before time either!

They do haha. On our Geography trip during "that week" in February, my school was shut for 3 days in one week! My teachers were just as depressed as we were, and at one point were contemplating going back home early!

There is nothing better in the world than waking up in the morning and then finding out school is shut because of the white gold :unsure:. I break up on Thursday as it is, let's make it a Wednesday please :unsure:

I think if anybody finds any negatives in the models at the moment (apart from those who hate the cold) is a wind up merchant. Hence why this thread is so deathly quiet!

I won't be watching it...my face will be glued to the TV screen! Well if we get a channel low popping up you could be well in the firing line. Precipitation won't be a problem for you, but being quite far south and west the milder air might be a problem. But one of the golden rules in cold spells is you never know what will happen snowfall-wise until the day itself!

Well the greater the temperature difference between the sea and the air, the better chance of some juicy convection going up!

I was told Dec 15th but don't quote me on that!

Ta very much, I see it is just as insane as the operational!

Can anybody provide me a link for the GFS parallel run please?

The only disappointment on this run is the fact that we go back to the dreaded mild mush southwesterlies, but seeing as this is in the low res part of the run it is subject to massive change!

The only moan I have is that why couldn't this have been a week later? The juicy stuff would be right in time for the big day itself. But hey, apart from that I am loving this