Nick L

For those who are completely new to model watching, the best thing to do is watch the run as it comes out and keep an eye on the model thread as people make comments. When they make an observation about it, look at the time period they are talking about. After a while it will probably stick! I am still a complete amateur compared to most on here, but everybody starts somewhere!

Another pleasing run from the GFS, shall we start arranging the funeral for the modern era now or tomorrow?

On second thoughts, that is cold enough I think! Especially with a biting easterly breeze. White Christmas a possibility...?

It's not particularly cold though I have to say, we just about scrape -10 850s for a brief period. But they are still sub -5c for most of the time so it's cold enough. This is the closest we get to "proper" cold on the 06z: http://charts.netwea.../h850t850eu.png But the important thing is that the general pattern is still coming up! Also, the bitterly cold air is only a stone's throw away.

Certainly wasn't an outlier. It still had support from other members. However, it was definitely one of the warmer solutions and the majority of the runs went for much colder. I think the form horse here has to be for a cold, frosty high pressure - which after the deluges of recent weeks I would welcome!

Agreed. Same on the GFS as well, synoptically it looks wonderful, but the uppers look nothing more than cool to quite cold.

All hail the new modern era! Sorry, couldn't resist...

The +216 chart on ECM is an absolute corker (I am running out of positive superlatives here!). http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.gif

How can a model run possibly be an outlier at +0?!

Should start trickling out at about 6ish. Here is one for your bookmarks, the daily model timetable: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/25253-daily-chart-timetable/

I did mean downhill! There is no way it can get any better than this. The pub run (18z) will have to get so drunk it passes out just to equal that!

Don't mean to put a downer on things, but there is only one way all this can go!

Doesn't show precipitation type, just all precipitation. The red dots indicate where convection is likely to occur - ie. showers.

It's a good job the GFS is being replaced soon!

Thanks Sammie! Not yet, I have a pretty good idea though of who I am putting as firm and insurance. I have been invited to a visit day to Reading on January 15th, so that will probably cement it as my firm choice. East Anglia will probably be my insurance, the only thing that puts me off about it though is that it takes about 4 days to get to Norwich, ridiculously far away!

Although it only lasts for 2 days, the good thing is that the easterly is still there!

I think it is a bad idea to close this thread. It should be open all winter. It filters some of the crap out of the model thread after all! Even though there isn't currently a cold spell, it is still a good place to discuss the prospects in the near future instead of clogging up the model thread.

Thanks Paul =]

Well I have received my final offer today, so here is the full list:[b]University of Reading[/b][i]Meteorology & Climate with a year in Oklahoma - AB in Maths and Physics plus 100 points from elsewhere[/i][b]University of East Anglia[/b][i]Meteorology & Oceanography - BBB[/i][b]University of Birmingham[/b][i]Mathematics - ABB[/i][b]University of Leeds[/b][i]Meteorology & Atmospheric Science - BBB[/i]As Reading have given me an offer, they will undoubtedly be my first choice. If I fail to meet those requirements for the 4 year Oklahoma course, they will put me on the normal Meteorology course which is BBB. East Anglia will probably be my backup. Just the small matter of getting those grades now [img]http://forum.netweather.tv/public/style_emoticons/default/rolleyes.gif[/img]

Now before we dismiss the pub run's latest drunken antics, this easterly is at the same time as was suggested the other day. We are always told to pick trends from FI after all...

And this adds positive input does it? :lol:

It wasn't stolen off another forum I swear :lol:

That was terrible Pete :unsure:

Yeah think we had the same. When it started raining there was tapping against my window, like hail but not as violent. Wasn't worth staring at the lamp post for anyway, still awaiting the first snowflakes of the season!

Well I am in goal and on astroturf, which is pretty painful to dive on at the best of times, let alone when it is frozen as hard as concrete! Still, nothing beats playing football in the snow. It won't come off though, we have been let down so many times...but it is impossible not to dream about what might be!