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Potent Gust

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    The Midlands - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    Absolutely balmy out there, 5C and sunny. This is not a cold spell at all, we haven't even had an air frost since Tuesday last week. Showers passing west of here but they look to be of rain.

    6C here and sunny but to be fair these sorts of temperatures were predicted for today.

    Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Again I have to say I think the Met Office have been pretty spot on so far this winter. The updates that Ian gives us are invaluable. He stated well over a week ago that the Met were pretty sure that the NW/W flow would continue but it would slowly become milder with the winds veering more W/SW. From looking at the model output as it stands at the moment that certainly appears to be the case. At least we have some PM shots to look forward to. I know some people are downbeat but the winter so far has been much more interesting than last years already. I personally have experienced 7 frosts already! Virtually as many as the whole of last winter!

     

    Anyway I am hoping the MET are onto something with the potential pattern change later in the month. I will be watching the Met Office and Ian's updates with keen interest. Thanks once again Ian :)

    • Like 6

    Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Potent Gust

    The "models" are "utter tosh" and why we/us try to forecast the weather a week away by looking at them is beyond belief ..in my 5 years of watching them they are hardly ever right at that distance so why we get so excited at what "they show" really baffles me ..trends, that's all they are good for so sit back, have a a cup of coffee and Winter will arrive when you least expect it, not when the models say it it will !

    As stated in a previous post I pay most attention to the Met Office and Ian. It tempers expectations. The Met have done a fantastic job this year. I used to get dragged in by fantastic Fl charts, the media and some over the top posts on here but not anymore. Anyway back to the models and it still looks a cold chilly week with some wintry showers for the lucky some. It will feel colder than it has done for most of the Winter so far Posted Image

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion 25th Jan onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Potent Gust

    Hi all

     

    I don't often post in the Model Output section as I don't feel I have the knowledge of other posters in here.  I love cold and snowy weather and obviously this Winter has been poor for cold and snow so far. However my expectations have been kept under control this year due to the wonderful informative posts from Fergieweather. I feel the Met Office have been fantastic this winter and Ian's input is second to none.In previous years I would have got carried away if the charts were showing an easterly or northerly and then all too often I would be left feeling deflated when the charts did not verify. Ian has helped me keep very grounded and basically if the Met Office are not interested then I don't get too excited. At the end of the day they have access to much more data than we do. I am not saying everything they say is gospel just more realistic.

     

    Anyway this a great forum and made all the better by Fergieweather's input. Thank you Ian Posted Image

     

    Let's hope we get some late winter surprises Posted Image

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 4th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     Correct - degree of mixing is critical and gradients hardly look especially sporting. Some areas will indeed be milder in strict sense (e.g. western / NW coastal districts) but conversely chilly to SE, albeit amount of insolation day-to-day hard to gauge given tricky boundary layer f'cast issues (not least prevalence and longevity of any fog, plus nuance changes in the flow direction such as more backed at times).

    Hi Ian 

     

    Thanks for your input as ever. Where does the Midlands stand in the current output? Everyone is talking about a NW/SE divide but where do we fit in? I live just outside of Birmingham.

    • Like 1
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