SLEETY
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Posts posted by SLEETY
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Ridiculous difference in ECM from 144 hours onwards compared to 12 hours ago.
Might as well bin the run after 144 hours as it flip-flops so much
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4 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
Why don’t you wait? Lots of frames to come yet.
Because if it's wrong at 144 then no point looking at later frames is it?
Low pressure track looks miles out, they normally slide under these huge cold blocks not through them, bet its an outlier at t 144 onwards
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Another flop from ECM?, looks way too progressive at 144 hours, more runs needed.
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Severe blizzards for many if this ECM verified
Milder in the far south for a time but the rain would quickly revert to snow and big drifts being whipped up by gale-force Easterly winds.
Places like Salisbury Plain and Dartmoor would get buried.
Finally winter weather in actual Winter
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Don't like the icon run it's messy and cold spell looking like ending. NEXT
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Lost the plot now and it's a complete mess,but cold looks locked for the next 7 days, afterwards who knows what's going to happen after that the gfs 06 obviously doesn't know,just throwing rubbish out.
Amazing turnaround for UK normally looking in fl for signs of cold weather, now looking in fl for any signs of less cold weather
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3 minutes ago, Vikos said:
Correct me, but aren’t those day and nighttime temps?
I'm talking the upper air 850 hpa temperature, such a big difference from 12 hours ago,best to ignore the later stages of the model whatever it shows.
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Hard to trust Ecm after 144 hours the constant flipping it does every 12 hours, a 16 c difference in upper air temps at the end compared to 12 hours ago!!
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Early spring arriving on ECM in just over a week.Another outlier or I am retiring from model watching,starting another hobby
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Don't envy the Met this week, could be surprise snowfalls later on for many, and mavbe even a polar low development to make things very interesting for some!
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9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
My thoughts are that this low will end the cold spell but may give some transient snow to favoured places. Of course its all speculation this far out, it may not even make it that far North. Either way heights have vanished to our North so I think the cold will evaporate anyway and weaken its hold into week 2. In my opinion the trend this morning is a poor one if sustained cold is what you want.
Of course there's nothing to stop another reload again in time for Christmas
I think this low may bring heavy snow to some parts or not even make it as far North for any snow, who knows exactly, but to say this low will end the cold spell, you can't make any decision like that based on this one gfs run,it's way too far away for that!! Bet you ANYTHING you like reality is totally different, save this run where the low is expected to hit at around 200 hours then compare it to actual reality!!
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11 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Yes, maybe expectations a bit high with some people , just reading the mets forecast and they go along those lines even to the point of mentioning showers more likely of rain or sleet in the south with snow accumulations for Scottish mountains. I can't see amything in the models to draw me away from this forecast. Unfortunately some think they are wiser than the met with theories that they dont want to scare us
Met havent ruled it out though have they if you read it.Way too much uncertainty in the models to be able to predict who will see snow away from the usual places like the Scottish Mountains,not hard to predict they will have lying snow at upto 4406 feet above sea level!
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13 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
the issue is pumping the WAA into the Azores high
so we need it as weak as possible so it can leave room for itself to disrupt east
A 2010 style easterly misses us by 200 miles throughout the ecm
Not as if things are going to play out exactly like what ECM is showing is it,have you not forgotten how poor the ECM has been recently in this crazy outliers on pressure for example and that crud run a couple of days ago!
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4 minutes ago, Chesil View said:
Wouldn't get too hung up on things post day 7 in the current situation whatever a model shows
Whatever any model shows at that stage is just a possibility as opposed to a probability.
Going to be lots of twists and turns yet.That track of the low on ECM too far out to be anywhere near correct,somewhere could get battered by blizzards from it,or it could end up going too far South.We could even end up in a bitter Easterly looking at ECM by this time nest week!
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Scottish ski industry will be doing backflips looking at this afternoon model runs.
Is that a polar low developing earlier on. North of Orkney and Shetland. Something that needs to be watched,could be some big snow totals up there next week.
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h#
3 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:Despite a fairly decent start to winter, I can still see December ending up the same way as every other month in 2022 - an above average CET. I have a feeling there will be a big change early in the new year though.
will have to be a dramatic change in the weather pattern 2nd half of Dec then if its going to finish above average.
First half looking welll below average CET wise.
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Back to where we were a week ago with Mild Southerlies aned low pressure.Pass the bucket.
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this run is so different to 6 hours agao,its got Azores high moving in now,of all things.FGS
looks like ECM from yesterday,
Beginning to tire of all the models,all over the place !
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Dreadful performance by the ECM to be so different yesterday to the other models, then to revert to what they were already showing is an utter joke and a complete load of bull
You could see the run yesterday was wrong from 120 hours onwards.
The programmers of the Ecm need to keep their heads down for a few days and hope they don't receive their p45s
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Low further North now, like the Met mentioned could well happen with milder air getting into the mix with much colder weather further North, where the two air masses meet is where persistent snow could fall. Midlands probably best place, no good further South for the time being typical.
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28 minutes ago, E17boy said:Hmm I am excited but just raead the weatheronlines week ahead outlook the end has distressed be a bit. Atlantic breaking through after next weekend????? unless they have got it wrong
Must be using the ECM op from earlier which was a massive outlier, so just ignore what they have said basically.
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Ridiculous pressure outlier from the Ecm, might as well bin the end off the run.
Also a mild outlier for temps at the end.
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Model Output Discussion. 3/12/2022. How cold will it get?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Well actual track of the low won't be anywhere like this ECM runs when we reach reality, looks wrong, it's been chucking out these rouge runs every 2 days
Cold air is hard to shift but ECM just blasts it all away from UK in 2 days.