SLEETY
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Posts posted by SLEETY
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yes but when springs arrives the cold weather patterns suddenly appear,so dont expect March to feel any warmer than the pathetic attempt of winter that jan and feb have now become.
Incredible contrast between usa and europe temperature wise at the moment,how pathetic we can never get a cold anamoly like they can.
Its colder in LAS vegas for example,how pathetic is that.
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4 hours ago, mb018538 said:
First half of February is a write off. Only leaves us 2 weeks of winter 'proper' and then whatever meteorological spring can throw at us.
We have seen more snow in march here since 2010 then any of the so-called winter months,how pathetic is that.
Looking like could be the same this year.
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no surprise feb not looking like any cold weather arriving.
really poor outlook for cold again.
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6.9c 68 mm.
Another write-off for February regarding cold and snow.The endless crud of Jan and Feb as winter months continues just regard them as spring month in temperature!
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This High pressure needs to either back further West to allow a Northerly to develop or just clear off all together, all its going to do is bring mild Atlantic gunk over the top of the high and into the uk with its current orientation.
Really frustrating and eating up precious Wintertime.
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Don't take the Met long range forecasts as gospel they never forecasted the severity of the cold spell in Dec
That caught them out , and hopefully the bitterly cold weather when it arrives, after January of course, will catch them out again.
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1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
I’m afraid we’ve lost January as a ‘winter’ month. RIP
It's been a lost winter month for 35 years!!
, doesn't mean we can't get a severe spell this winter, and even March has delivered the last couple of decades.
Watch out for changes in the model output in a couple of weeks as another pitiful January nears it's end.
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21 minutes ago, booferking said:
Terrible outlook everything that's remotely of interest always in la la land the euro high wreaking havoc every year and seems to be getting worse every year, sky world cup in doubt also mi oh my.
Snow shortage threatens Alps with wet winter season
WWW.BBC.CO.UKWorld Cup skiers will race on artificial snow this Saturday as the Alps see record high temperatures.A common theme in the winter for most of Europe, with these persistent High pressure belts over Europe dominating the scene for decades, hence the lack of snow in the Alps.
And January looking like a write off for snow and cold.
If these high pressure belts could shift North of the UK then we would be talking how cold Europe was in the winter instead.
Not going to happen is it!!
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13 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
The EWP looks to be headed in a near average to perhaps slightly wetter trajectory for the first seventeen days according to GFS. We've had about 5 mm so far and the grid average by 17th is around 60 mm so that would be 65 mm, January normals are close to 100 mm, so that's a bit above the pace but with the trend slowing down after a fairly steady accumulation this coming week.
The CET will lose a bit today but rest of this week looks very mild, running CET seems likely to get back above 8 for a while. The second week looks somewhat colder and around mid-month it's almost ice day material (on the GFS at least). So if all that verified, could see the running CET sliding down towards 5 C by about 17th. From there it could end up pretty much anywhere in our range of forecasts (our coldest forecast is 2.0 which is fairly high by most January contest standards, probably due to the obvious warmth of the first third making anything under 2 fairly hard to reach under any circumstances. There are a few cases where January did a mid-month reversal and ended up quite cold from a warm start, I think 1855, 1950, 2012 come to mind. If I went back through the 2012 or 2013 contest threads, bet there's a table of months where January turned cold, or if it starts to look relevant, I could produce one.
The table I just posted has the extremes of running CET so after that 2022 anomaly fades out (it used to be 1851), 1916 and 2007 take over and record high running means are usually in the low to mid 8s after about the 7th. They start to sag down into the high 7's in the last third but there's no climate-based reason why we couldn't see an 8C January, there are month-long periods overlapping parts of January that run that warm (e.g. mid-Jan to mid-Feb of 2002), and Feb 1779 was 7.9. Sooner or later there no doubt will be an 8.0+ Jan but with this change in pattern being signalled, I don't think it will be this one.
Whatever you make of climate change and the warming of late 1980s onward, it is quite striking how many of the particularly warm January values come from a long way back in the records. Of the 22 warmest that are 6.0 or higher, 14 were from 1932 or earlier (at random in a steady-state climate there should be 17) so the distribution is not particularly different from that random expectation, however of the top six all but 2007 are from 1921 or before, so that's where it least conforms to even random distribution, let alone the skewed results we see in some other months (like March where the top eight are all 1938 to 2017).
Difference is Roger,although their were mild January's going back to the 1700s and 1800s their were also bitterly cold January's at the same time,or at least bitterly cold spells in them.
Since the late 80s its been nothing but warm January's bar a tiny few in 35 years being below the CET.
Utterly pathetic how January is now, and this month is going to be above average too!!
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last chance saloon redgarding deep cold air affecting uk,next 24 hours will have the answer
Mild air normally wins out in UK so I predicting Arctic high not winning out.
What an utter crud climate the UK has in the winter months,complete rubbish .Hate it.
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18 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Frustratingly close to something very interesting at 120 to 144 range, at one point it looked harder to fail, but we managed it!
Trouble we have now, if wemare to get a sudden switch, it needs to happen today, cant believe the models will all be wrong inside 120 hours.
hopefully the models have underesimated the strength of the block,and it can build further west.
going to have to happen next 24 hours though or its probably game over.
the position of the uk on the worlds map,means we are normally fighting a (losing) battle in getting Arctic highs to build back west enough to effect uk.
same problem all the time.So frustrating.!!!!!!
Might as well sign out of model watching for at least two weeks,you just know the milder air will win out.
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Not sure why anyone is surprised by January anymore.
It's a repeatable pattern in January over many decades now, with low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South.
With high pressure to the South moving further North at times to turn it very mild over most of Europe.
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my sub -zero estimate had a chance at one stage until the lows pushed through and back to zonal crud,at least the jet-stream is far enough South to give snow for the Highland1s and the ski resorts.
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How about January shifting into something cold for a change,at least ECM was hinting at something colder with it trying to develop a Scandi high.Long way off but at least we have a straw to cling too for now.
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3 hours ago, PiscesStar said:
What a dung forecast from the BBC. No less than 3 major low pressure systems bringing boring rain and wind and mild temperatures. A borefest of the highest kind.
Hate januray now either its zonal dross or mild and cloudy with winds from the South,never from the East or North for snow and cold is it.Rubbish month
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need to vist buffalo just before they get lake effect snow.Amazing snow depth.Thir climate is perfect if your into snow,they get loads,but it doesnt last for weeks to be too much inconvience just several days to enjoy it before the rapid melting starts tomorrow
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2 minutes ago, mbrothers said:
A gentle reminder that it’s only December 26th. Just saying.
Trouble is with January rarely being a winter month for 30 plus years, you need to some evidence that is going to show the UK turning very much colder later in this winter. Really hoping the signs of the strong warming higher up is the evidence we need.
If it is correct then don't rule out another big Easterly like in 20 13 and 2018 but hopefully earlier in the actual winter, and not Spring!!
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9 minutes ago, KTtom said:
God you can tell the models are crap when there is virtually a whole page discussing the spelling of a word!
Exactly, just shows you again as we head into January, that as far as the UK is concerned it should not be classed as a winter month as the temperatures are more spring like year after year.
Nothing in the model output indicates any change for at least two weeks.
We have to hope the warming high up will effect Europe hopefully tail end of January, otherwise just mild weather will be dominating throughout the month.
So utterly predictable!!!
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14 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
Yes 1987/88 was a changing point in snowfall especially for London and southern regions of England. But, there were a number of snowless winters in the 1970s.
87/88 at the time was a shock, because almost every year since 1977, there were frequent snowfalls even in the south.
if i had known after the big freeze up of 87 we would rarely get much snow after,then I would have moved to Tomintoul!
Growing up as a kid in the late 70s to late 80s I thought how great that it snows so much every year.What did I know!
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12 hours ago, Ice Ice Baby said:
£500! Mine is £300 every 3 months non direct debit 3 bed house, family of 3.
we currently pay 200 a month for both in a 2 bed bungalow and thats before we increased the usage when the cold weather hit.
Your talking rubbish if your only paying 100 a month for both gas and electric then both must be off most the time.
Why dont you actually explain how you get that figure,because its bull....
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Amazing how the UK misses out on the cold again in this afternoons gfs run. Most of Europe will be going into the Freezer with severe cold, but UK stays mild.
Yes it won't verify but the trend of UK never going cold is tiresome.
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16 hours ago, RJBingham said:
I see the MetO have changed their wording for the second half of January, the S word has gone, and it's brief cold spells from the north possible, good time to make the change unnoticed
Typical, just read it, looking like another snowless, crud of a January.
Not surprising the warm up in January and February since 1987 has been ridiculous, over the whole of Europe.
The French met office for example mention how crazy the warmth in their country has been since the late 80s.
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Another mild January is coming
6.3
85mm
Like to see how much January and February have warmed since the late 80s,must be an incredible difference since then for UK and Europe.
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Surely not another mild January looming.
Miles away again from any cold weather as January starts soon. Incredible consistency in January being mild, year after year. I'll give it that
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by SLEETY
People seem to have forget that. The ECM showed a big Scandi High right out to the end of its run a couple of days ago, now the complete opposite, its all over the place, ukmo also looked promising now its switched to mild junk.
At least the gfs has been consistent, let's hope not consistently wrong!