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SLEETY
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Posts posted by SLEETY
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After looking promising that the Siberian high might take control with much colder weather coming back,we are now miles away from any sort of cold spell with the Atlantic in control again.
Bitter out in the NE of Europe though,as long as that remains then always a chance we can tap-in to it later on.
But nothing of interest regarding cold weather for at least two weeks,so no point looking at the models until mid-month
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Going be ages before we see decent sypnotics again IMO
Once the Atlantic wins it's normally game over for weeks for any cold spell.
The talking about the coldest winter since 63 from some posters this week
Stop the wind-ups.
UK winters have been crud since 87 bar the very rare occasion
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17 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:
Forget the cold/snow hunting for now, nothing is going to stop this current Atlantic onslaught.
Exactly seen it countless times the past 30 years once the Atlantic takes control it can be weeks before things change again.
Heard it all before about background signals look good for bitter cold to hit uk later on,but 90% the time it never happens.
Met got it spot on for once from last Wed about Atlantic winning out.
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15 minutes ago, Freeze said:
'The cold is hard to shift', is all you read in the mod thread, yet it pushed the cold air aside with ease last night in about an hour a 8c temp rise, that's the cold snap over.
Always does on the coast when the wind switches onshore, enjoyed the cold spell here, even ice on the beach, that doesn't happen often.
Let's hope this isn't the end of the cold weather can't stand another winter of wind and rain and mild.
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Models are utterly clueless at moment, can't work out how the low pressure is going to interact with the building High pressure over Scandi, fl about 96 hours ahead
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1 hour ago, Snowman. said:
While I believe we will suffer a period of Atlantic influence, my main focus is the block NE I can’t escape the possibility of around the 20th we will see high pressure develop NE which will likely calm our weather and cold and frosty conditions, the last 3rd of December will be have us glued to this forum. Let us hope for we don’t repeat a Dec 2021.
Yes the odds are shortening that the final outcome is all roads lead to Siberia after the Atlantic fails to take control.
Be about 24 hours before it happens until the Met or BBC come aboard though with their constsnt mild bias in their forecasts!
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00z runs always poor for some reason, hopefully the 12, runs show similar to yesterday's.
Can't bare the thought of milder weather and relentless rain again
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4 minutes ago, Shaunado said:
Cracking synoptics today. I have to say I don't envy the pro weather forecasters jobs in such a marginally juicy set up. Rain? Sleet? Snow? How much? How cold? How long will the colder set up last? How do I convey the risks without the tabloids blowing it out of all proportions and context?
Nightmare for forecasters later next week, blame the warm sea surrounding the UK otherwise it be snow for all , of course if uppers were below minus 10c no problem won't be long for that to happen if this pattern persists.
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20 minutes ago, MattStoke said:
They're not an entertainment business.
Doesn't explain the fact why they nearly always go for the least cold option like yesterday even though it wasn't looking likely even then!
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Forecast wrong from yesterday from Met then. They backed yesterdays Ecm on their 10 day trend forecast, and the least cold option to happen next week.
Always seem to go for the least cold option, even when it's look not likely.
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56 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
In my twenty odd model watching experience, if the UKMO model is not on board, then be afraid, very afraid.
It is the best model for handling of Atlantic energy.
It's always the last model to come aboard regarding Easterlies, it didn't want to know at all yesterday so it's already moved towards an Easterly.
Did this some years ago with the other models showing an Easterly but the UKMO had the high too far South until the last minute, it was miles out.
Almost feel like the model has been programmed with a mild bias built into it, nearly always seems to show the less cold option until it catches up.
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43 minutes ago, Daydream Boy said:
I think the amber warnings will be dropped tomorrow and the yellow warnings will be scrapping the south coast. Maybe keep a yellow warning for the rain but that's it. I'm secretly disappointed here in Cornwall as was getting excited about it all. CI and Northern France now in the firing line. Signing off until the next storm that disappoints
Hasn't happened yet, too many people writing off the storm already. Happens all the time in here.
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Decent snow-fall on the Cairngorms from the storm, which Met-Office failed to forecast, forecasting warm air moving in Saturday evening, which didn't happen, still below freezing at the summit.
Another fail from the Met again
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Poor performance from the models again, why do they struggle with these set-ups, the Easterly looks on track again this morning after all of them were against it,especially the UKMO, it's been miles our the last few days regarding the Easterly
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1 hour ago, sundog said:
Warmest september on record for a number of countries in Europe, record heat in Spain for oct, likely for France today. I see little to rejoice about. People need to be very careful what they are wishing for.......who knows what's in store much further down the road.
Ah stop with the dramatics, parts of Scandenavia be getting snow end of the week and Iceland, oh no might be another ice-age coming
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Rained for about 20 mins couple flashes of lightening and nothing else, went West, like snow does in winter now
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Really hope the c e t comes in below average, just to shut the METO up for once, constantly going on and on about global-warming, as if we don't know!!
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This relentless wind from the NE, for days and days, and now Ecm wants to retrogress the high further up towards Greenland and bring in a notable cold spell of weather later on.
Amazing how in winter we barely get any days of winds from the E or NE now it's almost relentless, so unusual here on South Coast to have winds constantly off-shore from the NE.
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impossible tp get a below average month anymore,even if winds blow from the North Pole for days on end.
12.9c 63mm Thanks
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how did April end up another above average month again.Felt really cold at times and we even had some frosts here.Give up in seeing below average month ever again!
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Gfs going for the charts we were waiting all winter to appear.
Watch them verify too., just to add salt to the wounds.
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8.1c
50mm
Thanks
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Model Output Discussion - Into Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed.
Remember people posting twitter posts about how cold its was going to get in December later on and 62/63 comparisons
And what is the actial outcome, back to high pressure over Southern Europe controlling the weather over much of Europe with mild weather the main player like most winters the past 30 years..
What a surprise said no one ever!!