[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Vikos said:

A lot of moaining going on here. Why? Just because this mild interlude? Some will rub their eyes… no confidence in cold spells but mild is rock solid carved in stone? 

In UK yes when mild takes control it can last for weeks and cold rarely survives more than a week. 

Just the way it is but the northwards shift of the Azores high in winter has made cold even harder to achieve 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Remember spring a couple of years ago when the Greenland high dominated for the whole month, think May? I know the vortex is weaker in Spring  then Winter but still struggling to see how this Greenland high just seems to vanish in 24 hours. 

Can't withstand the onslaught of the low and it's game over. 

Struggling to see any way back to cold from here. 

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Hey guys just wait for spring and your get the perfect northern blocking appear that won't just melt away like this week. 

Winter in this country is just Woeful now, mainly just constant wind and rain crud off the Atlantic. 

The warming trend since the late 80s in NW Europe is just ridiculous

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Are people really going on the chase again. Best bet wait till spring, that's when we normally see perfect northern blocking and Southerly tracking lows that don't miss the UK! 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Woeful outlook if your interested in cold and snow after this week, and the chance of snow in the far South mid-week, has gone, virtually every model has the low too far South.

Why is anyone surprised any more. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Models normally have the low too far north at this stage and eventual outcome it goes south, maybe they have it too far South and it goes north instead!! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

There is really no strength to the block unfortunately.

Imo we are doing well with what is on offer to get a scenario that is on offer this week given the limitations of this set up.

The fact ice days are likely for some, a snow chase is on for some and it will feel like winter proper is reason to be cheeful.

Somthing more 'classic' in terms of blocking looks the form horse to show its hand toward months end, there has always been the threat of milder spells this winter in the long rangers

Setting the bar at 62/63 etc each winter is never helpful.

Cold spell in December, an ongoing two week spell in January and perhaps the best to come in a couple of weeks?

Certainly a better winter than many in my lifetime already.

The country wide snowfall where all are happy is a rare beast indeed.

 

 

 

You worry for the rest of the season though if the cold can just get pushed away so quickly. I thought cold was was hard to push away because it's dense etc and from what I have read,

Amazing to think even here on the coast we actually  have had 3 days of lying snow even on beach from the heavy snow showers from last Monday, stayed on the ground till Thursday 

This low has all the hallmarks of 2023 in March where the South Coast got a little bit of snow  but channel Isles got hammered. 

Need a big northwards movement in next 24 hours  it's rare the models are wrong with the tracks of low pressure systems 48 hours away anymore! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

How the heck do we go from this 

 

to this 3 days later

 

The blocking just melts away like magic,and back to atlantic wind and rain crud

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

sOME MODELS GOING FOR IT

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

There’s a cold spell, 3c daytime temps is undoubtably cold but the reality is comparable to the charts we saw this time last week it’s a disappointing outcome, it’s as rare as hens teeth to see this kind of chart in January and to not even see lying snow in 80%+ of the country from this is extremely disappointing, I think what’s more disheartening is the way the Canadian vortex is returning with merciless aggression, looking at it at day 8-10 range it’s running rampant, which we all know it’s deep trouble if you want cold.

8-10 day range is way too far out to be making any assumptions. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the back-track starts with the models. 

Been here before at the weekend for the end of the following week and the reality is sometimes totally different. Keep the faith 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

There’s a cold spell, 3c daytime temps is undoubtably cold but the reality is comparable to the charts we saw this time last week it’s a disappointing outcome, it’s as rare as hens teeth to see this kind of chart in January and to not even see lying snow in 80%+ of the country from this is extremely disappointing, I think what’s more disheartening is the way the Canadian vortex is returning with merciless aggression, looking at it at day 8-10 range it’s running rampant, which we all know it’s deep trouble if you want cold.

8-10 day range is way too far out to be making any assumptions. 

Wouldn't be surprised if the back-track starts with the models later today regarding end of next week. 

Been here before at the weekend for the end of the following week and the reality is sometimes totally different. Keep the faith! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

People are talking like there is no cold spell incoming lol, there is, it's just the end looks a lot quicker than it was, however the end of next week is a long time away in the weather world,so don't think it's a done deal yet. Anyway  I expect a few surprise  snow chances will appear over the next few days. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

5 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Let’s be fair. Not what he said. He said into February possibly back end. No mention of winter done from him.

More or less he said that,don't try and twist it in his favour  let's see but won't be long before the cold comes back, if it even goes away, a week is a long time in the weather world. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

11 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Looking more likely now that an active trough will push into Northern England on Monday night to produce snow showers on it's front into low level parts of NW England / NW Midlands before an active core with heavier and more persistent precipitation moves into central areas of northern England. On the lead a complete below freezing sounding means locally significant accumulations to lower levels are possible. As the heavier core makes progress there is the potential for a mild sector to raise the snow line to the west of the Pennines in particular, with orographically lead adiabatic low level cooling reducing this risk to the east of the Pennines. There is uncertainty with regards to the extent of this mild sector therefore the extent accumulations to low levels to the west of the Pennines within the trough core is uncertain. A stronger concensus should be reached by tomorrow evening. 

The longevity of the system is also uncertain. On some model output a slow moving front could produce 20cm+ >250m over the central Pennine region. Other output keeps such core significantly weaker which would limit snowfall. Uppers of -3/-4C in the mild sector support snowfall down to 250/350m with potential for lower in evaporative cooling. More certainty on the main core tomorrow evening.

So some places are going to see snow? You said a couple of days ago it would be "dry as the Sahara" for the majority of the UK 

Make your mind up

[Moans, ramps and banter]

59 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

We’re looking into February, possibly even back end.

I’m personally looking forward to spring now. Only so much rain and gloom one can take.

Writing off the entire winter because the op runs bring in the Atlantic mid january 

 

I'm also quoting this post in a few weeks, not as if the set-up after this week would take much for it to go back to cold again. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

I've tried to be positive with my postings the last few days as I truly thought this spell would last for a week and we could then possibly get cold zonality and a southerly tracking jet to keep us on the cold side. How wrong I was . I was suckered in again I suppose. 

Not your. Fault, it was looking like a locked in cold-spell for next two weeks at least, with repeated southerly tracking lows and chance of snow for many 

What's happened last few days that by Friday the Atlantic back in control and back to wind and rain crud

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

If it can go wrong for cold in UK it nearly always does. 

Always just can fly to USA to see the proper cold the game is up for UK after next week

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Yes shocking how this northerly airstream and blocking over Greenland gets pushed away by Friday. 

I have viewed archived charts of blocking and arctic northerlies Feb 69 for example and they  have gone on to form Scandi highs and even colder weather,many times, not anymore it seems, always now the Atlantic just barrels through and the game is up. 

Let's hope this low is modelled further north  mid-week so at least some get some snow. By next weekend it's back to mild Atlantic crud and rain and a million miles away from any cold weather and snow  bar the Highlands. 

 

What a surprise said no one ever

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Most people will have seen some snow by the end of next week is the best way to sum up things at the moment. 

Don't take the op runs on their own the Met dont. They use all the ensemble runs to make their FORECAST,they even said that on the 10 day trend forecast, not just the op run! 

 

Lot of posters on here just seem to live or die by the op runs. Wrong! 

 

You can tell them to your blue in the face, makes no difference! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Gfs OP has lost the plot lol. What sort of run was that, another  run for the shredder  interesting that the ensembles seem to be have some more colder run in there though. Some really frigid runs actually, don't write anything off

[Model discussion highlights]

ens number 16 on the money 

Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4996959

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The problem is its supported by GEFS - which are strong on relocating the PV back to Cananda / Greenland again.

time-scale your talking about means nothing.Another one that hangs off every model and ensemble run,like its gospel.Hilarous or irritating.

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

4 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

A lot of people commenting on the ECM at T+192, which corresponds to 12z next Saturday (13th January). Thought it might be worth looking at how that fixed time has changed on the mean since this morning:

Today's 12z mean:

This morning's 00z mean:

 

Definite downgrade, albeit a fairly slight one.

Same is true on the ensembles as well. Post 15th, we now have about a 70-30 cold vs. mild split, compared to around 90-10 this morning and yesterday evening.

what makes you think its correct.Ecm at that time ahead being struggling all week with the positioning of the high just a few days away,even now the op was at the top end of its run for how cold next week will be,

Even the met says the models struggle with greenland high pressure,nothing for next weekend.is sorted yetSave the charts now and then post them for next saturday  see how they compare.Good luck if you think they will match

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

ens number 16 on the money 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Don't just rely on the op run people are told, but they still do it,time after time, then call downgrade at chartt over 10 days away and ignore the excellent earlier part of the gfs in this case 

SAME every winter.