SLEETY
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Posts posted by SLEETY
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57 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:
When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA.
56 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:When Ian Fergusson posted here, he suggested the Met Office actually quite like the JMA.
JMA was only model that didn't sink the high like all the other models did they only reverted back a day or so ago, so we now get a decent Easterly with uppers approaching minus 10
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44 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:
My word,...look at those uppers on the control to our E/NE at day 11
Start of February 1963 redux there. Check the archives
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JMA the best performing model in the run-up to the cold spell.Only model that didnt sink the high like especially the ukmo and ecm have past couple of days,before they reverted back to a northwards shift this afternoon.,So poor performance from those two models.Would like to seee the verification stats.Jma must be near the top at least
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ok its gone to garbage and wont verify but the depth of cold is staggering up north.If we tap-in to it sometime this winter then it be one big frezze up
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Yes 18z Ecm further north with the high at 90 hours compared to six hours earlier at 96 hours. Might be fine margins but at least it didn't go further South.
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5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
ECM op was at the top end..mean quite a bit colder!
Isn't it always, waiting for the extended ensembles. Should be some crackers in there!
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6 minutes ago, MJB said:
Sleety yet again you have had a bag of nails to eat, Awful come of it, silly comment
Compared to what it was showing a couple of days ago it's awful.
We had minus 8 to minus 10 upper air over the UK now at best its half that at around minus. 5
Doubt it's crrect though, probably one of the mildest runs from the pack after day 5-6 like it is nearly is every run!
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Awful Ecm hopefully it's wrong again.miles away from what it was showing 48 hours ago Not much cold around then looking like a topper at the end Uselesd
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10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
Even if we had minus 20 upper air over UK. I'm sure the BBC would have max temps of around 7 c over UK like they have before with cold weather
The Met will be accurate but they won't commit yet. Too far out to be certain of anything.
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ensembles should be interesting later bet the minus 15 c line is breached
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2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
The high moved south.
you would think the low over italy would have stopped the sinking ?
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4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
That seems to be the way forward this morning..heights rebuilding out west day 10 onwards..the gefs mean was showing this!
but it cant do both have you ever seen an archive chart where high pressure sinks over uk then two days later retrogresses NW ?
More runs needed again !! At least we have a chance of a decent cold snap in January for a change.Its been a while..............
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so THE HIGH is sinking sw then retrogressing again at day 10 on ecm thats the pattern nailed thenWhat a brillant model .NOT
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how can the high sink SE then move SW on ecm rubbish,wont verify.More runs needed.
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be interesting watching the ecm extended ensembles later,some really bitterly cold ones in there that dont sink the high I would think and is the op back to mild outliers after 144 which it normally does for days on end.
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ecm proving its useless after 144 so different from last night.Knowing our luck it has the correct solution,ever have that sinking feeling
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4 minutes ago, Howie said:
I hate this chopping and changing
Are you talking about the posts in here or the models
at least it proves the models dont have a clue yet.
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too far out to know the final outcome,models can never get to grips with these set-ups.
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ukmo was the best for bringing in the cold a couple of days ago now so far today its the worst looking model and wants to sink the high.Give up.What is it with computer models and blocking highs over Scandi,they never can get to grips with it until 72 hours out.So dont presume any model has the correct soulution yet.
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3 hours ago, TillyS said:ECM at T240 isn’t particularly enthralling to be honest. High meandering but generally sinking with mild north-westerlies up the western flank and the coldest 850 hPa temps heading into southern Europe.
I don’t think it’s very wise to diss the GFS at the moment merely because it doesn’t show what we want it to. It may be wrong but it’s one of the big three and it makes me uncomfortable that it’s not on board. It’s a particular concern that the ensembles aren’t massively supportive for the UKMO evolution.
Mind you, it’s equally risky to bet against our own UKMO model. The ECM, which had a bitterly severe cold easterly set up 48 hours ago, has backed away from that which also makes me nervous about this.
Interesting times for sure. But I’ll stick my neck out and predict the GFS IS correct. The high potters around before sinking into Europe and we’re left in an essentially MILD flow.
That aged well
Stop using the gfs as your no1 model, it's finally smelling the coffee about 3 days after the other models, the constant mild outliers were the clue it was wrong and has failed again.
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permutation 48 or 21 on ecm please
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1 hour ago, Atleastitwillbemild said:
This. A thousand times. It seems what ever happens we just end up with a raw deal. I've given up on chasing the cold and now just want to see some sun. Unfortunately seeing clear blue, sunny skies in winter feels like a receding memory from childhood. I'll just have to wait for the summer when we can expect the relentless northern blocking and southerly tracking lows we were desperate for all winter. I think I've got to the point where I have to make a conscious effort to focus on anything and everything but the weather and leave this as a hobby for good. We have a truly exceptionally awful climate.
UK climate has always been pretty poor for snow and cold but it's gone from that the past 36 years to hardly any point looking for snow and cold on the computer models as it hardly ever happens.
Yes the hobby for looking for cold in the winter has ended for me as well. Happens so rarely as I said that you won't be missing much by not looking for it.
We have an awful. Climate for snow and cold, that much is true.
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Gfs just Woeful, still one of the mildest runs the op was.Their is a 20c spread in 850s,on gfs probably best to ignore the model with its fantasy storms and snow it has been showing.
Just bin it into the Atlantic to sink without trace
Wasting people's time showing outlandish charts that never materialise!
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What's happened looking dire for cold a few days ago now the Highlands at least are going to get buried and lower levels in places should see some snow
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Should have waited for Ecm instead of just using gfs to make that statement
. Not that ECM is correct though been down this path before with this model and perfect charts at the end of the run that never materialise.