Snowmad79
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Posts posted by Snowmad79
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Oh lord I cant believe the turn around on the ECM with it looking almost certainly like the HP will get undercut rather than sunk. Unbelievable model veiwing this evening I really hope the rest of this run will rise up to our expectations.
Looking good at 168 hrs !
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Not sure im liking the ECM @ 168 hrs with the 2 shortwaves potentially hindering the northward retrogression of the HP and it also appears the HP is moving westward slightly rather than north... where does it go from here ?
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Well well well , was half expecting to log on and find either no posts from say 2am onwards and some sort of miner back track but having a quick glimps of the GFS and the ukmo @ 144hrs and then seeing the early risers in the forums this morning I actually got goose bumps .. I can honestly say in the past few years of watching the models the weather has never had that effect on me lol. Great stuff this morning, the GFS shows more positive signs of the HP being undercut which is tops for snow potential and the ensembles are showing far closer agreement for the cold uppers with a few more touching the -10 for my area of lancashire.
The GFS does show the HP fragmenting later in run then the block just dissolves but I dont buy that even though eventually it will be inevitable. All in all im pretty damn pleased but lets see what the ECM says about it this morning
Ps. Are we going to get those regional threads up soon by any chance ?
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At 144hrs the ECM and UKMO are still pretty much identicle by the looks of things
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Ecm is out to 96hrs on the Wetterzentale site
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The UKMO is less progressive than the GFS and looks to me like it could go either way: sink or fully retrogress to GL. It is, as Nick said, fraught with danger. The GFS does seem quite bullish about this one and is has been consistent for a few consecutive runs. However, we can't read too much into this we've seen this pattern with the GFS before, only for it to back away completely. The ECM will be interesting.
Ive just reviewed that UKmo run on the Wetter site and im still slightly nervous as to what that LP is going to do. It makes me laugh my bum off becuase no matter where the PV is it still has a nasty habit of wanting to spank us with its Shortwave energy
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As that Short wave moves SE it would likely aid in bringing the Colder air here very quickly , As Nick says it is a very nervous period if we can get just a couple more days run's in and everything is still ok we will be looking at 80% chance of something very cold.
Yeah I understand what you are saying its just the way that LP positions itself that threw me off there a little or It could be my perception of things were swayed by switching from the Netweather models to meteociel models which im particulary fond of.
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Does NOT look good on the 12z ukmo ... thats for sure
It looks asthough LP wants to squash the HP back down towards a SWerly direction. It also shows a 1030 mb HP cell NW of Iceland so it might just be that the retrogression senerio will be dragged out for longer. If it does happen at all ... bit of a reality check here -
The 00z charts this morning showed what a struggle it was going to be to get that retrogression north but the 06Z and 12Z have followed on to show an improvement from 00z in the respect of WWA north and the vital link up and it appears the charts still arnt sure whether the HP core retrogresses north or stays over or just above us and so that easterly tap still looks a little bit of a struggle. Never the less some good runs again today even though the cold is still in FI but as ever these type of senarios take ages to gather momentum.
Be interesting to see what the other two models show on the 12Z's.
Ps. Gratz on the 348 thread member count
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So uhm, the example of last years epic failure HP retrogression was nothing to do with the fact that PV was stuck on or near to greenland with too much shortwave energy coming off it ? where as this years it appears to be split and away from that greenlandish position of last year so in theory shouldnt shortwaves or LP systems be less of a problem this time around ?
I guess what I'm really saying is I think this time there will be less in the way of spolier activity for this possible upcoming event
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yes but as usual you're picking the charts to suite you NOT the charts that are most likely to come of. I'm almost certain now inversion high will be the outcome, IF we're lucky.
Yeah I may end up shooting myself in the face if people don't listen for once.
00z GFS is not a bad run for cold lovers. I think most people kind of agree that an Inversion High was always going to be the first step anyway. We still need more runs before we can tell if and how far that High will progress northwards.
Its good to see Iceland emsembles still showing the trend for HP there too.
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Even though Im not a regular poster Id like to see 2 threads , the first being the orginal we have now which could be called Model Output Discussion ( Reliable ) or (General) and the other named Model Output Discussion - (Fantasy Island) or ( Long range), then we might just not see the threads decend into chaos for reasons such as why people are straw clutching as people call it and what not.
If you take for example the current forum of late has people Stating what they know is probable to happen within the reliable and then causing anarchy because other members see something later in the runs which points to a difference of senario and thus causes dodos to fly all over the place
At least then .. people making summaries on the longerterm no longer have to answer as to why they are actually looking into deep FI and vise versa,I hope you understand what I mean.
Then again it shouldnt really have to come to this.
cheers.
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if anyone is having trouble opening the pfd document-either pm me, or if a visitor to the site without that availability please post a request in the thread.
My reason for posting is that the figures suggest 342 have looked at the link but only 79 have actually opened it?
Even with my mistake in posting initially with no link the disparity seems very large to me?
I didnt have a problem opening the file at all, but some pdf's from other sites do have a strange problem and in some cases they wont open.
For those who couldnt, this is easily solved by right clicking the link and selecting "Save target As" and point it to your desktop or folder of choice, then click the file you just saved and it will then open as normal with the Pdf viewer.
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Thanks John and a great read that was. I have a sneaky feeling that the weather around christmas time or just after will be that similar of last year with HP dominance. Global Atmospheric Angular momentum charts have shown a similar but slower emergance to what was seen pre christmas last year allowing HP to build northwards over the UK. Unfortunately for us the Hp's progression north was hindered by the stubborn PV and if im not mistaken, that aspect may not be a problem this year. Overall I dont expect to see anything remembling this in the charts until atleast mid December onwards. Uhm appoligies for raiding your thread like this lol.
Cheers
Snowmad79
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Hi, should there be a link to issue number 41 or is 40 the latest ?
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ECM at 144hrs looking good.
Well I was going to say that the 12z GFS ensembles RE moscow, Oslo and icland from my perspective show
Highish pressure remaining over oslo, the operational was the lowest of the bunch with the mean on or above 1020 indicating the low pressure to move south rather than north, even the ensembles for iceland with the operational being the lowest pressure member with most indicating a slow rise in trend of pressure, again to me says the low will head more south.
Lastely for moscow and again the GFS 12Z operational is the lowest pressure member with the magority in favour of High-ish (1020+) pressure which I personally think still gives the chance of pressure rises over Scandi but more importantly the possibillity of HP over svalbard and the low near iceland to sink south rather than edge north or NE across Iceland and stop HP from droping down over Svalbard.
Looks like the 12z ECM could also be showing this. Can I just say that alot of models since last friday have hinted at Pressure rises to our far north and east and could still very much be likely.
Im not sure how it will pan out on the rest of ECM and equally unsure of what implications would arise for the Low moving more south than progged on the 12Z gfs but i do not buy LP moving north easterly regardless off what is shown in the 12z models nor do I buy Hp over Moscow or russia for that matter being blasted out the way
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3.6 c and has just started snowing very lightly here in oldham east.
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For those with no subscription. On that radar precip for the manchester, rochdale and oldham area doesnt arrive until about 18:00 , it could also fizzle has it heads towards us.
Temp here as gone from 1.3c to 3c in the past half hour.
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In answer to snowmad 79's question on the other thread, the models have fresh input every day, the only automated thing that we sometimes discuss in here are the 6-10 and 8-14 day NOAA maps which are done at the weekend, during the week these have input by a forecaster. Regarding the models it probably is better to view the 00Hrs and 12hrs gfs ones when trying to view possibilities as at least we can compare these with the other main global models which run just twice a day at the same time. The gfs 06hrs is okay though in that at least NOAA sometimes weight this into their forecasts, the gfs 18hrs is far too volatile and often is the one run that will go completely AWOL so this is certainly one to always be dubious of. Hope that helps.
Thanks for that Nick, I guess I'll take a more opened view of the weekend model runs from now on. As far as the 18Z is concerned I dont think I've ever bothered to look at that run since I first found my way to netweather and that was a couple of years ago.
cheers again for the info mate
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This is one of the key factors in the christmas pudding.
Here is one, actually not from the last decent winter (95/96) but from the December of that year. This brought continual snow showers across my area, and I assume many other areas, on New Years Eve.
http://www.wzkarten....00119961231.gif
This will be a challenge for Mr Data and others who may claim that the christmas pudding is nothing new/special !
Damn ya beat me. Was about to say theres quite a few from winter 2005/2006. This one looks similar to that posted by Steve :
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The current SOI this September is fairly positive. There's never been a moderate El Nino when the SOI has been so high. But that's not to say it won't happen!
Ok Im with ya there I cant find the data to proove otherwise hehe, The interesting thing ive come across by looking into this further is that the SOI was decently positive from August 2008 until march/april this year. On one hand it didnt stop the current El Nino "conditions" developing on the other it did tie along with Nerutal Enso conditions of last winter which is something new and exiting to me lol.
But is there anything to show this wont swing back the otherway leading to Enso strengthing again in the coming months ?.
These are the sites im reading the info from atm :
Noaa SOI info ( scroll down page)
Along with various others.
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Hi SM79,
Working out how a negative PDO phase may affect a developing El Nino is complex, and I don't think that you can state that a negative PDO base state doesn't have an effect when El Nino conditions have set in. My take on it is that a negative PDO state will be bound to affect an El Nino because they are both antagonistic to each other.
I would suggest that if an El Nino is akin to boiling a pan of water, then, in a negative PDO state, one could suggest that this is akin to continuously adding cold water to that pan. The constant adding of cold water will prevent the pan heating to the same temperature that it would were it not added.
Having said that, the Pacific Ocean profile looks neither like a classic positive nor a classic negative PDO presently.
http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest
http://weather.unisy...e/sst_anom.html
As has also been pointed out before, the global SST's are also vastly different to 2006 presently (especially the Atlantic profile) so I don't think we can use that as a good analogue to compare to.
http://weather.unisy...anom-060924.gif
I would also be very cautious about reading too much into any forecast suggesting that El Nino is going to strengthen anywhere beyond the lower end of moderate. These forecasts have an extremely poor verification rate. The recent KW downwelling doesn't seem to have increased the anomaly at the 3.4 region with it remaining at +0.9 today however the full effects of this may not be felt yet.
One way of judging where we feel the El Nino may be heading is by looking at the SOI index.
http://www.bom.gov.a...ssary/soi.shtml
The more negative the SOI, the stronger atmospheric El Nino conditions we are experiencing. Currently this is running at positive values with an average 2.93 for the last 30 days average.
http://www.longpaddo...30DaySOIValues/
This is hardly what is expected of an El Nino state!
If anything it looks like we are heading into an El Nina or perhaps a La Nino! El Nino sea conditions with a La Nina atmospheric state.
c
Ok mate fair point. If im honest I have had to do some trolling on the Southern Oscillation Index and you are totally right how the SOI and Enso are connected and that persistant negative SOI values represent developing El Nino episodes and conditions which was again true leading up the current conditions.
However isnt it also true that the SOI has shown possitive values during some previous El Nino episodes ? and that these would need to remain possitive for some time before we could say what the likely outcome is ?
Not sure if I worded my previous post properly but Im defonatly not saying El nino will strengthen towards strong or that it wont eventually abate and swing towards a La Nina, Im just pointing out that El nino wont simply be "cancelled out" and that it will most likely still reach a moderare level of atleast a 1.1. Similar to the 2006/2007 Moderate Episode. Also wether or not it acheives "Episode" status wont be known for a few months yet anyway.
Craig
Ps. Im no expert as you probably already know, Im just going off what Ive read and learnt from various sites, mainly Noaa.
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The cold pool in the north pacific is continuing to develop - this is going to encourage -PDO.
A -PDO is going to counter any el nino
Disagree with this post. Forgive me if im wrong but if you look at both the Oceanic Nino Index and the PDO index you'll see that since El nino conditions have returned this year the PDO has actually gone possitive. Also note that PDO was in a negative phase at some point during previous Enso years (possitve and negative enso year). So in my mind looking at both index's, -PDO only encourages La Nina Episodes but doesnt actually have an great effect when El nino conditions have already set in.
Just read Noaa's Enso update and the majority of models still going for a strengthening of El Nino conditions which are looking to peak around December but last through the winter. Remember that were already around the 1.0 moderate nino threshold and with recent kelvin wave downwelling in the pacific this is only going to add to the SST anomilies.
As for winter ahead, well I wouldnt at all be suprised if this turns out to be a late affair or something similar to 2006/2007 ( the last moderate El nino year), but i guess we'll have to wait and see what happens with regards to OA, NAO and the East QBO / solar minima thing that GP has been talking about.
Thats my quick take on things atm.
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"harsh winter". Would you say so.......really? Very average i would say.
Yeah thats magic isn't it. I love it up there. Always had a soft spot for Sholver marooned up on the moors; always gaze up at it when travelling to Milnrow on train from Victoria. Used to work at Delph mill for a bit then the Lilac too (which i suppose you can see from your window).
By the way, what is all that earth removal all about (last time i was there about 6 months ago). Houses? Golf course?
Nope cant quite see the lillac mill from here and as for the land removal not sure if I know where you mean. Sure you dont mean the area of land between Sholver and Derker ? thats actually a Land "fill" site lol and was supposed to have been an 18 hole golf course by now. wouldnt suprise me to see them building new houses there though to be honest.
It looks asthough LP wants to squash the HP back down towards a SWerly direction. It also shows a 1030 mb HP cell NW of Iceland so it might just be that the retrogression senerio will be dragged out for longer. If it does happen at all ... bit of a reality check here 
Model Output Discussion
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
I'm a bit nervous about asking this because as far as teleconnections are concerned im a total newbie but i'll fire off a question anway.
Friction Torque
Mountain Torque
If you look at the charts above, The global friction torques are showing a tendancy to go negative, if im not mistaken, negative moutain torques then usually follow suit as is shown in the Mountain Torque chart.
When this happens Atmospheric Angular Momentum apparently displays a negative tendancy which is also showing signs of doing just that on the AAM tendancy charts so when the sequences above fall into place westerly wind anomiles are removed from the atmosphere and thus Westerly momentum is removed.
Now if this supports a colapsing pacific jet stream and a trough into the united states that is more orientated to the west side of the stats like what has been recently shown on the models, then what do you think the chances are that this current block senerio will be locked in for longer than one might expect especially with a weakend jet coming across the atlantic and the AAM loosing westerly momentum so to speak ?
Or if the block does give way what do you think the chances of a rebuild later are on as the things descibed above take effect ?.
I know theres a lot more to it than what ive said above and its probably way to early to ask these things but I just had too. Oh and sorry if this has gone over your heads guys !
Ps. for the sake of this being the model thread I just wanna take my hat off to the GFS, its ensembles and the GFS hieght anomily charts that were hinting at the current possible block senario 2 weekends ago.