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butler_son

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Posts posted by butler_son

    Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaand relax.

    The rain's 15 minutes of fun didn't do anything to the snow cover, and all precipitation has now stopped. Even better, the temperature has stabilised and even dropped 0.1 of a degree since the rain stopped (now a balmy 0.6C). Might take a walk up to the supermarket in a bit, I'll be sure to take the old camera with me, see if I can't find some interesting pictures to take... whistling.gif

    Central Southern England - Cold Spell Discussion Part 7

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There's no question that if there was no snow cover already, what's falling now would not be settling. But, with 5 inches on the ground (must be now), it's only serving to top it up. May *just* be starting to look a little wetter in nature, but it's still snow. The temp is 0.7, humidity 93%, right on the limit.

    In fact, looks more like sleet in this burst, but I could be wrong... unsure.gif

    Some photos:

    In Ringwood, Hampshire this morning:

    165693_477509721836_591331836_6311078_2216530_n.jpg

    163022_477509991836_591331836_6311085_3034269_n.jpg

    Back home:

    65874_477510086836_591331836_6311088_8376337_n.jpg

    163775_477510166836_591331836_6311090_7656501_n.jpg

    65801_477510571836_591331836_6311101_3478724_n.jpg

    163608_477510791836_591331836_6311108_545734_n.jpg

    164713_477510946836_591331836_6311114_928258_n.jpg

    And as I've posted that, it's turned to rain. Not sure it makes that much of a difference right now to be honest, the damage has been well and truly done.

    Winter 2010/2011 Part 3

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Manchester Winter Index kicked of yesterday

    Current value after 1st, infinity :whistling: :lol:

    Its because I'm dividing by zero as the maximum was zero yesterday

    MWI: 10 x [(number of days of falling snow)+(number of days of lying snow at 9am)+(number of minima at or below 0C)] divided by the mean winter maximum temperature

    Last winter it was 197, this winter it will be flying out of the blocks.

    Mr D - I take it, should a new ice age beckon, that a negative MWI would indicate an even colder winter than a highly positive one? Naturally, it probably won't occur, but if your winter mean does drop below zero, could lead to some interesting sums! ph34r.gifhelp.gif

    Lake Effect Like Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    is it not the case the due to the extreme heat in summer around the great lakes area of north america that those waters would be generally warmer by the time early winter comes on than the sea's around britain at the same time ,considering our comparitively temperate summers,i really have no idea but i thought this may have been the case

    I would have thought that the Lakes would warm and cool quicker - yes, it may be hot in winter, but it gets cool quickly as well, being in the middle of a continent. The night-time minima are much lower there than here. Also, the Lakes don't have the warming effect of the Thermohaline Conveyor (or Gulf Stream, whatever it's called these days), which moderates our sea temps a bit in winter (I would imagine).

    Naturally, I could be talking piffle and am half expecting to be shot down in flames! unsure.gif

    Lake Effect Like Snow

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well, I would have thought the temperature differential is the main thing. It's more the warm sea temps modifying the cold air mass that's the issue. Wikipedia does cite the North Sea effect as a Lake Effect like condition, but we're never gonna get 120" of snow in one storm off of the North Sea like you can off of Lake Ontario in Oswego County (Upstate NY)!

    Last Year's Winter Forecasts.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So you can! Tut-tut butler_son, tut-tut :acute:

    At least Ian never voted for himself - Tsk Tsk Butler!

    Yes yes, I know...what can I say really? unsure.gif I was just hoping to get some sort of discount or signed copy for that book of his, I'm sure it would be a gripping and interesting read. Is it out yet? ph34r.gif

    You beat me to it! Was it the same jokers who vote for Wagner on the Xfactor. Just read his forecast ....Oh dear!

    I can give you my absolute assurances that it wasn't. I don't watch X Factor. Though I do sympathise with the cause of those voting for Wagner, if he wins I might not have to buy the song to sabotage the X Factor Christmas number one.

    Hee hee hee!

    Curse you! diablo.gif

    On a more serious point, the official forecast was probably best in my opinion, though Paul Sherman's would have been my thoughts at the start of the winter! Maybe I'm just pessimistic... crazy.gif

    Last Year's Winter Forecasts.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by butler_son

    Lol

    I only just Voted Oz - So come on who voted for me as mine was probably the worst Forecast up there :lol: :lol:

    I reckon it was Mondy :D:shok::bomb:

    You can actually see who voted for who, by the names on the poll it says "view". pardon.gif

    Which is something I didn't realise when casting my vote... unsure.gif

    Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by butler_son

    Expressions of 'great' in terms of content and liking what is said are not inextricably linked in terms of 'great' in terms of whether it actually verifies or not:) .

    What words might people use as reaction if they read the recipe to a luscious chocolate cake for eg? No different to conjuring up pictures of snowfields like this LRF might. Regardless of whether one ate the cake or whether the snowfields actually materialise.

    Normal human reactions and behaviour as far as I can see:) .

    Hence why I believe people should be more explicit. When reading through many posts, people were treating this as if it was going to happen (at least to my eyes). Normal human reaction indeed, I just feel that should be tempered a little, otherwise it could be a long winter for many! shok.gif As a forecast (in terms of results), this is no better currently than me saying "we'll get 90 days of rain and wind this winter" (we won't), though its methods are doubtless better (as that statement took me 2 seconds to think up and has no methodology), whereas this forecast took no doubt weeks of work and expresses their methodology unambiguously.

    I just believe we should be praising their work thus far (which is no doubt sterling) rather than the forecast (in terms of its delivery)! pardon.gif

    Rjs And Bftp Winter 2010/11 Lrf

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by butler_son

    I shall add my voice with the many others expressing gratitude for the time and effort that has gone into this forecast from RJS and BFTP and appreciate their continuing efforts with shorter range forecasts throughout the winter (spesh BFTP on the Model thread).

    But as for calling it great...I'll hold off on that. Yes, it shows a scenario desirable to many and is very detailed in the methodology, but there's really no way of telling if it's a great forecast until the winter is over, no? After all, Ian Brown's forecast could have been a great forecast for last winter if it had come to pass (fortunately for many of us it didn't), but I'm sure many people didn't call it "great" when it was released. I wonder if, in the case that it had proved successful, would people have regarded it as a great forecast post winter? If this forecast proves to be accurate come 1st March, I'll be back extolling its virtues and saying how great it is. But for now, I'll echo the sentiments of gratitude and say it's an insightful and interesting read.

    All forecasts should be regarded equally now - only in March can we debate their "greatness".

    Convective Weather UK

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted · Edited by butler_son

    Some decent hail with thunder perhaps across Dorset atm, judging by the radar returns. Central-S and perhaps parts of SE England looking interesting early this afternoon.

    post-1052-033026200 1287832424_thumb.png

    Some decent looking towering Cu shooting past gleaming white in the sunshine here now in S London.

    Got a feeling I was just under that red patch - good shout! For the record, was very thundery, small sized hail that fluctuated with rain. But the thunder rumbles were impressive. Lasted about 10-15mins.

    Major Hurricane Earl

    in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide

    Posted

    All this hurricane hunting is really put into sharp perspective when you're out here. I stayed with my friend's cousin in Long Beach NY just over a week ago. It's difficult to think that they have a tropical storm warning out, and their basement apartment that they put us up in could easily be flooded as they are less than 100 yards from the coast. Currently I'm with that person's aunt and she's been phoning down to them. Suddenly it all seems different. Suddenly, this picture I took when there doesn't seem so cool to have taken a picture of anymore: http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?pid=5465505&l=a38f6e8467&id=591331836

    On Monday, I was in Boston MA. It seems weird to me that it could be battered by this storm. Much as I have always loved following hurricanes, it just seems a little different now. Fortunately it'll only be the really outer bands of rain that I feel tomorrow in Montreal QC, if at all. I just hope everyone can have their thoughts with the friendly folks who I met in Long Beach last week in the hope that this system does not affect them. :)

    North American Weather (U.S.A & Canada)

    in Weather Around The World

    Posted

    This has been the hottest summer ever or second hottest in a lot of the eastern US, the mean max at places like DC and NYC has been closer to 32 C than the usual 29 C. It's still hot there on Friday with Hurricane Earl rushing past offshore, on its way to a landfall Saturday mid-day (local time) in Nova Scotia. The centre of what will then be either weak cat-1 or strong TS Earl will head across western NS into southeast NB pretty close to where Deb lives (wonder if she will look in on this thread?) ... anyway, centre should cross Fundy National Park and Moncton NB then western PEI late Saturday.

    I'm expecting winds of about 50 knots gusting to 70-80 in exposed locations and more generally 40-60 knots for a few hours, from a southerly direction veering to WSW as the hurricane/TS rushes past. Rainfalls will not be excessive, about 50-75 mms (2-3 in) with 100 mm in localized maxes around Saint John NB.

    The weather on the west coast here has been dry and warm all summer, until the last day of August, then we got an absolute soaker with 2-3 inches of rain that changed all the monthly and even seasonal anomalies from below to above normal. It shows you that climate records aren't the whole story of what people experience because despite that big additional rain the grass here is still parched, it did turn from straw coloured to a kind of greenish yellow but it's going to take another rain to revive the dormant grass (this is normal around here in summer).

    Earl currently on course to hit the island of Nantucket off Cape Cod, will report later on what happens there.

    Hey guys, I'm in the NE of the USA at the moment and it has been boiling here. Got up to 94F supposedly in Boston when we were there on Tuesday, the thermometer in Burlington VT today said 93F (think that was a little unbeliveable), but the weather has been very hot. Ever since the 26th August, when we were in Long Beach NY it hasn't dropped below 90F as a daytime maximum wherever we've been, including Albany NY and here in Plattsburgh NY. So yeah, just adding a little bit from the ground here. Apparently temperature records here have been broken here in the past week, breaking heat records that have stood since the 50s.

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