Cold Winter

Northern Scotland going to get frequent snow showers (not unusual) Coastal areas likely to get showers turning increasingly wintry ICON 6z modelling this for Thursday

Yeah it’s always about day 5+ over there, and often much further ahead. No one seems to be talking about the potential snow risks over the next couple of days… probably because it doesn’t look likely to affect London and the Midlands

I’d rather it stayed south and we pulled in a convective easterly as it cleared. Lows like that tend to stall just south of me (around the Humber) from previous experience.

Over the next few days it looks as though the wind direction will keep any shower activity at the coast. Thursday morning could see a spell of snow moving down from the north, but still very uncertain as to how heavy this will be - possibly just light or may not occur at all. The latest ICON highlights this and the GFS has been modelling it too. With frozen ground after a frost on Wednesday night anything that falls onto the right surface should settle, at least for a time. What we do know is that temperatures after today will struggle to get above 2-3c and there’ll be some harsh frosts away from the coast.

We’ve been in too many similar situations before and got burnt but it’s interesting all the same. If it’s still there in the morning and other models are joining in then I’ll start taking it more seriously!

18z op and control pulling in an easterly over the weekend into next week. A pub run special or is it onto something? I’d definitely take it!

Hi everyone, been a little while since I’ve posted in here (the July heatwave I think). Excited for the what the end of the week has in store. Looks like very cold conditions, especially by night. I’ll be interested to know what falls out of the sky from any showers at lower levels near the coast come Thursday/Friday. I think there will be showers - models often under-estimate this although the wind direction means it looks like they will be mostly coastal. However T850s have moderated a bit over the last couple of days and I’m not sure will be good enough for lower levels along the coast. As usual - the Moors and Wolds will probably be best, plus anyone further inland if the feature running north to south verifies on Thursday. Freezing rain would seem a distinct possibility to me, particularly along the coast. Whatever happens, it’s a good start to winter and nice for it to feel very seasonal in the run-up to Christmas!

Yes I mentioned this earlier today after the 6z. For my area 850hpa temps down from an average of -6c yesterday to -8c today for the same point on Wednesday.

I think it’s safe to say none of the models are sure what’s going to happen after T120-144, so no point getting excited/disappointed at this stage.

UKMO decent this afternoon keeping the trough out to our east at that point rather than over us, pulling in a northerly

Forgetting about the medium/longer range, some good news is that for Northern England the trend in T850s has been downwards over the last 24h. Take 8th Dec for example - yesterday’s 12z average was -6c for my location, now just below -8c. Good news for possible snow chances Wed-Fri next week like with the feature the 6z comes up with for next Thursday (this won’t actually happen as modelled today but gives us an idea of the possibilities).

It’s just the model throwing up another possible solution as it’s supposed to do. The 12z will be different again. This type of pattern is creating a lot of uncertainty and only trends within ensemble guidance and time will tell what the eventual outcome will be.

Yep, subtle adjustments to the Iberian low and location of Greenland high have a knock-on effect to the dropping trough. All variations on a theme but with different outcomes for parts of the UK.

This tends to happen for my neck of the woods, being close to the east coast. Convective easterlies or northeasterlies are best if the T850s are right. The onshore breeze can mean cold rain for me but heavy snow for West Yorkshire in a scenario where we have small secondary lows spinning around. I think the key at the moment is still the alignment of the Greenland high and therefore where the trough drops and how far south it goes. We probably will still see some further changes over the next 24-48 hours.

It is. The wind that’s going with the heat is the most strange thing for us to experience in the UK.

Got to 37.9c so far here in Malton which is quite astonishing this far north, especially being so close to the old UK record. It’s the hot wind outside which is also rather bizarre!

As you can see, MetO predicting 40c for me but only worthy of an amber apparently! Currently at 36.8c for context.

A lot of stations on Wundermap are reporting 38-39c now in the area most expected to get the highest temperatures today (M1 corridor).

Reached 36.2c before midday on my station. Wow. Hadn’t been over 34c at all until yesterday.

Steadied off at 35c here after really rocketing up this morning between 9 and 10.30am. Remarkable temperatures for the time of day.

My station has already recorded 35.0c

20.9c here after a max of 35.6c. Quite the drop, didn’t think it’d be as fast but I’m not complaining!

Still 35.5c here

Got to 35c here in North Yorkshire which is about 2c over my temperature record. Went out to do a (brief!) bit of gardening and although it was sweltering, the breeze made it bearable. Staying indoors now at a cool 26.7c.

Maximum so far of 32.1c here. I’d guess 50% of houses nearby have at least one window wide open, letting the hot air in.