Cold Winter

GFS determined for us to have a mild southwesterly Christmas

It’s playing with slightly different solutions so we’re bound to see some different output with each run, as we always do. But yes, to me, this particular run looks a bit better. Ultimately are we going to get a string of lows and northerly topplers, something which sets up a more sustained cold pattern, or something different entirely!? Only time and patience will tell.

High pressure over eastern Canada trying to link with Greenland high on this run... Brief northerly before the next low arrives or something more sustained?

Certainly an interesting time for model watching...

I have a feeling we might still be saying this with T72-96 to go!

6z looking interesting to me around the T204 mark... northeasterly imminent? In all seriousness, think we’re going to see a lot of model flip flopping over the next few days while they try to get to grips with the Arctic high.

Some cracking ensembles among the 18z suite. Most ending up cold - some taking a longer route than others. Trends going our way at the moment if you’re into proper winter weather. Overall - a good end to the day! ️

Scrap that, even the GFS couldn’t find us an eye candy 384 chart to drool over! Someone get it some mulled wine and a mince pie to get it into the festive spirit. Horrible run.

If you’re a fan of wind, rain and repeat then look no further than the GFS 6z ️ On a serious note, it’s one run. Let’s see what the ensembles say and the rest of the day’s output. Trends are what we’re looking for (and from my POV not ones that follow the 6z!!).

I have a feeling we’re going to be chasing the T384 chart again on this 6z

Still plenty of potential in the charts this morning. No reason to be really downbeat but equally no reason to get really excited either. Arctic & Greenland high with split PV is great. But for us to get cold we need to see heights over Russia/Europe move east, allow some of the lows appearing over us to move through to the east/SE and it’s game on. Not much of a change is needed to get this pattern and things probably will change as we’re talking D7-10. It might not happen for us, or it might... what’s definite right now is that no one knows for certain.

“Uppers marginal along the coast”. ”Does this mean it’ll snow in Great Yarmouth at 3pm on 20th December?”

Incoming!! (Only T282, what could possibly go wrong?!? )

Quick reminder on how different one run to the next can be once you get past T144...... particularly when you’re thinking about the micro-effects on our little slice of the world.

Bit of ridging towards Greenland and energy sinking further south over Europe at T160-170 on GFS 6z...

Another grey, damp day for our part of the world! Mist setting in now.

It’s definitely an interesting time for model watching, more so than for quite a while I think. Ultimately no one knows where we might end up in a couple of weeks - talk of a repeat of Dec 2010 are far too premature in my opinion and we’ll never get an exact repeat anyway. But the building blocks are there to get us an interesting pattern down the line... whether it ends up good for cold fans depends on the weather gods. All we can do for now is (try to) enjoy the ride!! [Also, advice from a long term forum member - if you don’t let your excitement run away with you, then you won’t be disappointed if it all goes t*** up!!]

Certainly looks to be an interesting start to winter this year. From what I can see in the models this morning, the thing we can guarantee is that the next 7-14 days won’t be dominated by low after low off the Atlantic, and that’s surely a welcome change after previous winters. A cooler than average period with increased risk of frost seems likely. The overall pattern looks exciting purely because it’s very unusual for the time of year. However, I’m not getting too excited about the prospects for widespread snow. The modelling remains quite volatile past Day 7 and the spread in the ENS T850 values reflects this. However, as we all know, things do and can change and ultimately I’m happier with this scenario than what we’ve seen over the last few years, and with luck we can get an even better synoptic pattern heading into mid-late December.

This is my view over to the northwest (Thirsk direction). Very dark and angry in the distance.

Think the southern end of it is just going to clip/miss me as it pulls away north!

We had a brief storm last night that developed out of nowhere and brought torrential rain and a few big rumbles. Then I got woken up about 1am by flashes from a storm which was way up off the coast of Teesside but I could see it lighting the clouds up from all the way over here, quite impressive. Here's hoping for more fun and games today!

Looks like plenty of lightning around Sheffield area now

Wouldn't be surprised if it sparks off more activity to the west of it as it moves northwards, you may get lucky

Yep, looking on the radar appears to be developing on the western side

Looks like you're in the firing line for the area developing to the west of the current cell that's heading north, Pit. Not so much of a bust now?