Cold Winter

Very difficult to judge when these flip flopping of patterns start showing up on the models. Normally I’d favour the ECM/UKMO over other models. However, the GFS was the first to highlight and stick with a potent easterly, and the ECM has been anything but consistent lately. I don’t think we can dismiss the GFS, but I do think it’s over-doing that low towards the end of the weekend/early next week.

Ish. Now we need to see consistency but good steps this morning

Hoping we might get something overnight into tomorrow here as I’m getting grumpy now with the endless sleet! Currently -1.2c with fog out there.

Got a reasonable covering here now after a few heavier bursts. The snow drought has finally ended!

Some heavy wet snow here in Malton. The first settling snow we’ve had but so far only giving a dusting. Temp 0.4c, dew 0.1c.

Yep, easily been the worst “cold spell” I can remember for a while. An easterly in January giving us cold rain/sleet... as @vizzy2004 said, no settling snow of any significance here since March 2018. I’m giving up on the snow hunt for a bit until we know what the effects of the SSW will be later in the month.

I still think the overnight periods today into tomorrow and Tuesday into Wednesday are the most promising times for any snow to lower levels. T850s are good for snow but dewpoints are too high. As they drop overnight with some added heavier bursts of precipitation we could see some snow to lower levels but I doubt there’ll be much settling or lasting long unfortunately.

3.9c here, showers so far have obviously been rain. Tonight I think will be the best chance for us to see some snow at lower levels. Latest NMM (6z) shows a a line of showers (?streamer) heading north in the early hours.

1.7c and 0.7c... excited for my sleet!

High res models are a bit mixed regarding rain/sleet/snow chances over the next few days. Some of them picking out potential streamers too - eg HARMONIE below. Others not doing so and showing rain showers for anywhere east of the A1. I think dewpoints are probably the limiting factor as uppers seem great - would appreciate someone more knowledgable letting me know if I’m right?!? PS - HARMONIE really does love forecasting graupel (the orange lines)

GFS 12z good in the short-term with uppers of -8c to -9c and even on occasion nudging -10c between Monday and Wednesday. Dewpoint forecast is marginal for tomorrow (ie around 0c) so for areas nearer the coast I’d say Monday night into Tuesday and again Tuesday into Wednesday probably the best time. GFS modelling a streamer for early Tuesday morning. Some of the charts below from that time... I’ll have a look at the high res models when I get a chance. And get well soon, @Scott Ingham

Rain here now (as usual!). Really has been a miserable cold spell so far here. Great to see all the snow pics and videos from you guys even if it does make me really jealous!

Scrap that, we’ve managed a sleety mix

2.1c with rain here in Malton. Honestly think this is one of the unluckiest spots in North Yorkshire for snow!

Temp 1.0c, dew point -0.9c here as the showers inch ever closer (very, very slowly!)

Yeah and ECM still showing a decent -7 to -9c range for 850s this morning. I’d say Monday night into Tuesday is the period when everyone should get a chance, if the North Sea snow shower machine plays along of course!

Latest runs are a bit better for us for Monday/Tuesday. T850 temps down to -8c on Tuesday, UKMO output is best in this regard. Should be enough to see some falling snow in any showers. Pressure fairly high though by this point so would imagine shower activity would be weakening a bit. Either way - I’m a bit more optimistic than I was this morning... think I woke up in a bad mood! Temp here now is -0.7c already. Had a nice walk down by the river earlier. Areas that had flooded were still frozen over with thick sheets of ice. Can’t complain at that. Great winter’s day.

I still think with the wind direction, air source and SSTs we’d need -8c uppers or below for anywhere near the coast, -7c probably won’t do it. Ok for areas well inland and over hills though, if any precip makes it that far. UKV highlights this for Monday evening:

Hoping we see some improvements in the T144+ range that we can actually bring closer to T0 without being watered down. The upcoming easterly initially promised some hope of snow showers to my area. Now it’s looking incredibly marginal with sleet more likely as the GFS has trended warmer rather than colder with T850s. Yet again we’re now looking at D7-10. Really pleased for all of you who’ve had some snow so far (I’ve had none and last winter was incredibly poor too) but is it too much to ask that an easterly in January brings some low level snow?! I’m probably just being too impatient and need to wait to see what the SSW brings us! Either way, wishing all of you the best for 2021.

18z about to give us a stonking northerly that’ll no doubt be gone by morning

-1.6c here now. Been a grand day really and now a harsh frost to top it off. However on the model side of things I have to have a little moan. We’re seeing great charts being churned out at the moment but so far always at D7-10. For example, the easterly early next week was trending colder but apart from the UKMO there have been some steps back away from that now too. Is some settling snow at low levels near(ish) to the coast too much to ask for?

Some newer members must be wondering what the heck is going on with one post saying snowfest and the next saying all rain. The reason we’re seeing this is the big differences from one model to another and often from one run to the next including upper air and dew points cycling between being snowy/marginal/rainy. No member is wrong or right, it’s just interpretations of different models at this stage.

Already down to -0.5c here under clear skies. UKV suggesting we could go as low as -5c or -6c tonight before temperatures pick up a little later on in the night. Big shame about the change in precipitation forecasts for tomorrow morning. Hoping for some snow showers from the east early next week instead.

Yeah there has been some promise at Day 5+ on several occasions and some nearer term possibilities but so far we’ve been the wrong side of marginal, except for Christmas Eve when there was a short-lived dusting.

And to illustrate what I said above, here is our 10/10 knee deep snow dump...