Cold Winter

Have briefly crossed the 30c threshold already here, currently at 29.8c.

We managed a dusting here last night. Hoping we might get more showers this evening feeding in off the sea as we’ve missed out on the main event further west (as we usually do here). Currently 0.5c and falling.

6z op is looking the coldest of all its members at the end of next weekend with a big spread from 6th onwards.

I can see reasons to be excited but we must remember that the GFS/UKMO output relies on a small extension of heights which pushes the low next weekend south. This could easily be weaker and lead us to a more ECM style solution. I feel like the GFS tends to over-do potential cold synoptics (from a UK perspective) ever since its upgrade. Let’s see how it sits within the ensembles, but it is good news that the UKMO is also on board at the moment as GFS+UKMO vs ECM is an unusual split (normally we see ECM/UKMO together). I’ve got everything crossed that the ECM comes on board and stays onboard (and that the others don’t then flip). If we can manage that, it’s beers all round! ️

Hands up who broke the GFS…?

It’s been a gorgeous late summer/early autumn day out there today. Fresh start, then warm afternoon sun. Perfect.

Landfall expected late afternoon/early evening BST, early afternoon ET (US). At the moment, track favours the hurricane making landfall just west of New Orleans. A big test for the city’s upgraded flood defence system, but all the other smaller communities nearby along the Gulf Coast are sadly almost certain to be inundated. Storm surge is already being reported as far away as Alabama.

From what I’ve heard from mates back in East Yorkshire quite a few low lying places have done well. We have 7cm in Malton. That’s on the level in an area that hasn’t been exposed to the sun or any drifting. We’ve had no other settling snow this winter except for a dusting so I’m very pleased with that!!

Haven’t had chance to post but we’ve had a great couple of days. Frequent snow showers both yesterday and today and woke up to a good top-up this morning. Some of the showers have been really beefy with huge flakes. And to think some people were suggesting a couple of days ago that North Yorkshire could miss out! Doesn’t look like the amber warning further south was justified based on what I’ve seen on the radar. These events are so fickle when modelled it really does come down to radar watching.

Batch of showers heading inland just clipping me to the north and steadily moving northwards too - grrr! Hoping it picks up later this evening but tomorrow looks great.

I'd be more than happy with these sort of totals after what we've had so far this year (ie - slush).

One episode of heavy snow, big flakes, here just after 8.30. Lasted about 30 seconds. Apart from that just on and off light snow and graupel. Enough to just wet the ground... So don’t be jealous of how the radar looks for the east

Still rain here...

Rain with some sleetiness mixed in here. If Hull can get snow I think Malton really is cursed

Really?! Brilliant! Must be because you're under a heavier bit at the moment. Keep us posted.

The colder air is filtering N to S (well, NE to SW) so the snow line will gradually reduce in that kind of pattern I assume. Low lying inland areas will be a bit quicker than coastal areas of course. While your air is transitioning from milder to colder you'll have to rely on the heavier bursts for some evaporative cooling to bring the snow line down - but by tomorrow we'll all be in snow-conducive air.

I think I'm going to have some fun drives over the North York Moors to work and back next week

Liking the look of that! NMM generally laying more down in the snow depth charts.

The Met Office video forecast on their website looks pretty good for showers from tomorrow morning onwards.

Can the suggested Humber streamer migrate a tad further north please if it does occur!!

2.6c with dewpoint 1.3c... steadily dropping...

Wow, so many nerves here this morning! Rain today was never meant to start turning to snow until later today over higher levels and then low levels by tonight, becoming showery. The MetO text forecast mentions accumulations through tonight and tomorrow to Tuesday. Radar and lamp post watching will be key from tonight onwards.

The text forecast is a lot better than the computer generated app symbols for the general picture of what’s going to happen when. This is tomorrow for Yorkshire & Humber: ”Morning showers will more widely turn to snow in the afternoon, becoming less frequent by evening, but some will persist overnight. Feeling increasingly cold in strong easterly winds.”

Yep, pleased with what the GFS is showing. It handles convection reasonably well in my opinion. Usually in these scenarios it shows showers across the sea and up to the coast = showers along the coast. The fact that it’s showing snow over most of Yorkshire suggests they should push inland reasonably well. My only concern is how long it’ll take us further east especially to see settling snow. I’d love to see some lying snow on Sunday but wonder if I might have to wait until Sunday night for some heavier showers to come along to give us our first proper covering of the winter.

Used to live in Pock and generally did pretty well there. My main profile pic is of the beck in Pocklington.