benb

What a stonker 2010 was! Great comparison- thanks for putting that up.

For sure- the Preseli MOUNTAINS (top station 536m asl!!!) could well be the place to be come Sunday afternoon.

I agree. Personally, I think there'll be showers crossing Ireland and then pepping up over the Irish Sea before reaching us, but it I've been wrong before!! Yes- it reminds me of then. I seem to remember GFS had the initial front arriving from the NW nailed to the minute! Yes- it may have been more unstable- I seem to remember streamers setting up all over the place in the 24hrs following that.

Do you think we're in Ireland's precipitation 'shadow'? Or is there another reason precipitation seems to be limited over Wales at that time? (I still think there'll be more for Wales than it shows there).

I think the general set-up Weds/Thurs is favourable for streamers running in from windward coasts right across Wales, but that's not borne out on the precipitation charts, as of yet. NWerly wind is great for that. Wintry mix right on windward coasts, snow a couple of miles inland, I'd speculate. Over the weekend, as the wind turns more Nerly, the showers are more likely to affect north facing coasts, with the usual areas (Pembrokeshire, Cardigan Bay) getting most of the action, hence the Dangler possibly setting up with possibility of snow from it later in the weekend. (Though I wouldn't expect any snow away from mountain areas Fri/Sat).

I'm still pretty confident about there being quite a bit of snow around early hours of Thursday, even in SW Wales- all the usual indicators point that way and it's such a ripe synoptic set-up. The precipitation charts are perhaps the biggest concern- http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/01/27/basis06/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2706.gif But I think in the event there'll be frequent showers and more organised bands of precipitation heading in off the Irish Sea with that NWerly wind pushing them well inland in the first part of Thursday. Anyway, proof of the pudding and all that. Possible Pembroke Dangler set-up Sun/Mon, too... http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/h850t850eu.png http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150127/12/135/uksnowrisk.png

Loads of snow shots for SW Wales during coming days, if it goes as predicted; starting early Thursday: http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150126/12/66/h850t850eu.png http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150126/12/66/prectypeuktopo.png I know people don't rate those 'precipitation type' charts too highly, but rarely (and rightly so) does it predict snow right around the coastal fringes of Pembrokeshire like it's doing for Thurdsay first thing. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/26/basis12/ukuk/taup/15012906_2612.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/26/basis12/ukuk/t850/15012906_2612.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/26/basis12/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2612.gif Dew points, 850s all good. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2015/01/26/basis12/ukuk/pr06/15012906_2612.gif Plenty of precipitation around, too, all driven well inland on strong NWerly winds. Anywhere with any elevation and not immediately next to a windward coast has got to be odds on for a few cms of settling snow. I think the synoptics are even better this time around than they were for the wintry evening we had a couple of weeks ago (lower 850s) I'm fully expecting Tenby's second snowfall of the winter! (ok, maybe a few flakes in a wintry shower isn't what you'd call a snowfall, but we've got to set the bar pretty low round here...) Early next week looks interesting, too... http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20150126/12/177/h850t850eu.png Is that a polar low slipping down the Irish Sea??

Well, end of a great week of weather in Pembs: thunder snow, a tile-ratling gale and even a mini-tornado! And tonight, here, we've winter's alter-ego: the stars are burning-out sharp across the firmament and, following a week of clattering boughs, there's now a total stillness in the woods at the top of the estate; a natural clamping down, a hiding away, a readiness for the frost tonight and for those to come in the nights to come. And next week? While we log-on and reload; refresh for the 12z, the 850s, the dew point; and bicker over a slider, or a Dangler: the animals in the fields, the woods and the hedgerows, they sniff the air and snug down just a little bit deeper.

Boom! Lightning! About 6/7 miles away... (if my old ma's counting the seconds between the flash and the thunder is to be believed- is that for real?!)

Heavy everything in Tenby, right now. Wintry mix. Some snow in it. Hail settling on cars.

Those charts and the Met Office app on my phone suggest the development of something a bit more widespread/organised moving across SW England and hitting SE Wales in the early hours. Possibly something to keep an eye on... Though anything could happen anywhere in these conditions. Good luck all.

Even snowing in Pembroke, atm!!! That bodes well for anything arriving later...

Extreme wind conditions in S. Pembs. Sent home from school after trees down on site, windows cracking and whole roof structures flapping in the wind! Going out to look at the sea now- 37ft swell south of Ireland heading this way could beat the record of 31ft on the Pembroke Bouy later this evening... http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~Lundy Hurricane force winds in the Bristol Channel- serious s**t.

Follow the incoming swell- http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/United_Kingdom.shtml 14ft on Pembroke Bouy, atm. 39ft(!) on K2, SW of Ireland. I think these're average heights over an hour so there'll probably be bigger swell within those figures. As a marker, the Pembroke Bouy maxed-out at 28ft in the storm at the end of last week and 30ft during the storm at the end of October. As a rule of thumb, actual waves heights on the beaches in S.Pembs are generally: Freshwest 2/3rds of bouy height, Manobier 1/2 bouy height and Tenby Southbeach 1/5th bouy height (although there are exceptions to these). Webcams: http://www.gowerlive.co.uk/ Blowy here overnight, but not exceptional.

There's an article about this here you might find interesting- http://magicseaweed.com/news/Atlantic-Code-Red-Incoming/5954/ -(My feeling is that MagicSeaweed like to hype things up a bit at times, but that's another discussion). I guess it was a very specific combination of spring tide, wind (strength and direction), swell (strength and direction) and rain water run-off that contributed to the problems Thurs/Friday and some of these will be missing as the next system and its swell arrive, that's not to say there won't be some issues re flooding etc.

There's a poor quality webcam for Aber here: http://www.ceredigion.gov.uk/index.cfm?articleid=994 Seems to be a lot of people watching something... Anybody got a better cam link for Aber?

Wave bouys around SW Wales back up again after dropping off mid-afternoon: to 28ft on Pembroke Bouy and 21ft on the Aberporth bouy. Both are the highest they've been all day and the Aberporth bouy reading is the highest I've ever seen it. Bad news for those on the Aberystwyth/Borth coastlines. 82mph gust at Mumbles recently...

Talked to a mate who lives on the hill in Pendine earlier: road and seafront pub flooded, debris on road, but no lasting damage, as far as he was aware.

Wow! The beach has moved!

Been a pretty rough night at Wiseman's Bridge by the looks of it- Amroth, nearly two hours after high tide- Pembroke wave bouy up to 25ft. Intermittent violent squalls, currently. Anybody seen the Newgale road this morning? That could be quite a sight, I'd imagine.

Some over-topping in Tenby harbour this morning, couple of workshops filled with water etc but nothing too bad, it would seem to me. Hope it's no worse around the rest of the coast. Big swell on Southbeach, though hidden somewhat, atm, by the shear depth of the water sloshing around. Usual places with some exciting spray- (maybe you had to be there...) Dennis cafe still standing. Similar situation again this evening, perhapsh bigger swell and stronger local winds? Off to Amroth...

Cheers mate- well explained!

Very stormy over-night; althougth I've felt higher max gusts, the intensity and length of them atm seems more prolonged and it seems you can hear them arriving from half a mile away! Pembroke wave bouy is at 15ft currently, but I'd expect that to shoot up in the next couple of hours with the approaching high tide. 29ft at bouy 62023 and some of that'll be hitting the Welsh coast later... I'm off down the harbour for the 7.20am high tide.

The current Environment Agency severe flood warning for Barmouth says: "At Barmouth the tide level is expected to reach 3.92 metres above Ordnance Datum." (http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/34681.aspx?area=101FWTWN510&page=1&type=Region&term=Wales) Does this means the max hight of tomorrow's am tide is going to be nearly 4 metres higher than normal? Is that right, or does it mean something else? Thanks...

Shipping forecast for Fastnet, Lundy and Irish Sea not looking good either- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/marine/shipping_forecast.html#All~IrishSea Regarding the Barmouth warning, does: "At Barmouth the tide level is expected to reach 3.92 metres above Ordnance Datum", mean they expect it to reach nearly 4 metres higher than the normal max for this tide, or something else? If so, that's really, really worrying.