benb

Friday's still open to a lot of variables- block a bit stronger/weaker than expected, low pressure arriving a bit stronger/weaker, actual angle of attack and the direction this pulls the winds from - all can affect what's going to actually happen on Friday and where, when and how much snow will fall. None of them are 100% certain, yet.

18z Gfs looks like sending more shortwaves down the same route... repeat performance for the start of next week, perhaps? Ok, let's get the first one out of the way, but potentially a very snowy pattern...

Gfs 18z still keen on widespread, prolonged snowfall for Wales on Friday. By the evening the cold air looks to be digging back westwards, possibly extending the snow risk back into the far South West... http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png Another great run, so far, imo! 60hrs and counting...

Well the mountain area forecasts for Friday and the weekend have upgraded for snow, from cold and dry to this- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecast/#?tab=mountainDetailed&map=Mountains&zoom=5&lon=-4.00&lat=55.09&fcTime=1358317133 Would agree with previous posters that any snow over Pembrokeshire perhaps looks more transient than previously predicted as slightly higher uppers seem to move in quite quickly when the precipitation arrives- still looks great for further east though. Could do with everything shifting 75 miles further west, for here, and that front sliding SSE rather than crashing directly W to E, I guess. But, who knows! Temp 2.7c

Still snowing across much of Wales on Sat morning, 24hrs later... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130114/18/108/prectypeuktopo.png If that comes off, there's going to be chaos... and it's possibly only 80hrs away! (Still time for it all to go wrong though!)

18z Gfs- Snow still on for Friday- http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130114/18/90/prectypeuktopo.png That's a fair few runs now... stall, stall...

I've been watching that one, too (Wednesday). GFS had it making in-roads in to SW Wales for a couple of runs over the weekend, but it seems to have backed off that idea today, holding it just off-shore. Still time for a change though and one to watch for this part of the world!

Latest NAE for midnight, bit of snow for Swansea, Carmarthenshire before it fizzles out- http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/14/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011500_1418.gif Dew points and 850s ok too?- http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/14/basis18/ukuk/t850/13011500_1418.gif http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/14/basis18/ukuk/taup/13011500_1418.gif Not very far from me, but 4.7c here, so not a chance.

2nd Gfs run on trot showing snow for SW Wales, Weds am... maybe one to watch. http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130113/18/63/prectypeuktopo.png Dry and 4.6c, here currently.

Afternoon All! At last a bit of winter weather action! Looks like quite a few snow ops over the next few days- always more marginal in the west... Perhaps a bit of snow Weds morning for us south westerners, with the latest GFS- http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130113/12/66/prectypeuktopo.png Good luck, wherever you are!

The forecasts this morning show a very cold week next week, probable minus double figure frosts at night followed by possibility of widespread frontal snow event from Friday onwards... although much of that is speculative at this stage.

Loving that picture! 4.5c here atm, persistent heavy rain and a strong/gusty easterly wind: I'm lighting the stove.

Blizzards and heavy snow above 300m in Snowdonia and the Brecons, according to this- http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/mountain-forecast/ It'll be a nasty day, regardless.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/04/28/basis12/ukuk/prty/12042912_2812.gif Bit of late April snow action?

Hey Clyde- what a great read- thanks! Brings back loads of memories- Llandrindod Wells, mid-afternoon, -9c and the place buried under snow and looking like a ski-resort. Brynamman/Glanaman under well over a level foot of snow.

It's gone very black... The hill across the way has disappeared behind a veil of..... hail!

That beefy shower is just arriving here... 5.5c, currently. Still hoping for my first falling snowflake of 2012!

That northerly has been quite consistently forecast for a couple of days now, so you'd think something along those lines would occur now- think Wales'd do a bit better if the whole pattern shifted 200 miles further west just to budge that high pressure a bit further away. But this- -shows what might happen for the west, if it pans out like currently forecast.

Hmm- tell me about it..

It's a good day for the NetWeather radar! If you put in on the animation; everything is moving quite steadily west to east and you can see the 'pre-front' snow around the eastern end of the Brecons. Good luck! Currently looks like SE Wales may do best today.

Steady light rain here, 2.5c

NAE for 6pm Sat- bit better on the 18z.... Shame the next frame's not such a pretty picture...

1c in Tenby- sky's already 95% covered with thinnish high cloud moving quite quickly across the sky from the WNW. Not expecting anything other than rain here, obviously. Was planning a trip to Snowdonia but, looking at the mountain forecast, it's going to be a pretty mucky day... http://www.mwis.org....hp?fdate=120204 High ground in East Wales may not be a total write-off for a bit of snow...

I think I'm correct in saying, ideally, for widespread, low-level snow, we'd want that shortwave feature to develop further- to be come 'closed'- a complete circulation. This would result in colder uppers (and lowers!) being pulled back west after it- thus possibly turning any rain back to snow. It would also increase the chance of snow to start with, as the front wouldn't be 'challenging' the cold air head on, more likely to be sliding off to the S/SE, thus not displacing so much of the cold air. That chart doesn't quite show that- but it hints at what may (or may not!) happen! It's all speculation at this stage, anyhow!

60hr Fax chart, Sunday, projects the front just east of the border, but, as I alluded to earlier, it now looks like it may start buckling back westwards, as the shortwave heads southwards across the channel.