benb

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/17/basis12/ukuk/prty/13011806_1712.gif Latest NAE... good for SW- something for everyone!

Yep- there's a bit of rain here atm, bits and pieces before the main band- air/dew points not cold enough for snow yet... The main band is struggling through the SW approaches, where, to my eye the heavier precipitation seems to have slowed its approach now. Satellite images also suggest there's a lot of precipitation behind it that has yet to arrive in the local radar zone. Temps here hovering around 5c.

Rain here- gusty SSE wind and 5.3c...

Not sure, but I think the blue is the precipitation- http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/neatl/ir2-l.jpg If so, looks pretty hefty to me...

Depending on the reliability of the NAE model, you could expect to see several hours heavy snowfall from the early hours onwards (perhaps preceeded by a bit of rain)... wouldn't fancy driving some of those hills round there tomorrow morning if it does snow!

If you have a look at Wundermap- http://www.wundergro...undermap/?sat=1 -you can see surface temps are already well below freezing already across northern France. I guess this is the air that we'll be dragging into the precipitation, assuming the winds stay SE, and turning it to snow?

Milford 7c at 4.00pm, according to XC Weather! But, as you say, temps should start dropping off as the front approaches... hopefully!

Maybe stronger winds this time round will lead to more drifting and, I maybe wrong about this, but I seem to remember several smaller falls of snow rather than a particularly massive fall in one go. Also, apart from the final front (similar set up to this?) that eventually led to the breakdown of the cold spell, much of the previous snow events were streamers and therefore not entirely countrywide? I remember driving through the hills above Brynammen after one of those streamers and there was well over a foot of level snow that day.

Strengthening, gusty SE wind here now. I'm up to 6c! Certainly doesn't feel it!

Groundhog day on Monday? Similar set up... http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130117/12/96/h850t850eu.png http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130117/12/96/prectypeuktopo.png I've a feeling there will be a few sick of the white stuff by the start of next week.

Good point, well made! Is that band of precipitation entering the radar zone a couple of hundred mile SW of Cornwall what we're waiting for?

Looks like a good decision for your part of the world! Can't see many schools open tomorrow. Hope mine sees sense and stays shut...

It's a good plan- I might even go to bed now and get up at midnight... will that work? Good luck to everybody; enjoy what could well be a historic event! Stay safe, too. EDIT: I'm too excited to go to sleep now!

00z NAE suggests further initial westerly correction compared even to the 18z.... ... 6.00) ... 12.00) Heavy snow across all of Pembs at 6am and still snowy 6hrs later. Support from 00z Gfs as it also shows the colder 850s holding, initally, further west. BBC graphics this morning reflect this, too! Wonder if the MetO warning will be updated to reflect this shortly? Pembrokeshire could be coming to the snow party! (At least for a few hours, anyway!) (Charts don't seem to load very well from Weather Online, but honest: they're further west!)

You're probably right, but seeing falling snow down here is rare enough let alone perhaps some of it sticking for any time at all! And with it coming in the early hours, there's the added possibility of a snow-day off work... ;-)

NAE by Friday 18.00hrs has the snow falling line running pretty much Swansea to Aber- still plenty of snow east of this; dew points, temps, 850s too high by then to the west. As Brady says, looking for the overnight runs to at worst firm-up on this, at best shift things a little further west again... for down here, anyway.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/01/16/basis18/ukuk/prty/13011806_1618.gif Looking much, much better for Pembs...

Sorry- hope these are those charts- you need a magnifying glass though! http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png 18z ... 12z image won't seem to load, but it's in the charts area, anyway.

Deffo a slight westwards correction on 18z, at 45hrs, compared to 12z at same time- the -5 850 line isn't pushed as far east as quickly- talking maybe 50 miles here, max. ... 18z ... 12z -and I'm not sure what consequence it has...

I guess that suggests the warmer air may not encroach as far into the SW either?

Same here :-( Still, down to 4.1c... least the temp's heading in the right direction!

Mums, eh? What she like! Hasn't she seen the latest NAE!

Good stuff for us in the west hoping for snow and for the longevity of the cold spell. Perhaps more changes to come... Going to be a nail-biting 36hrs!

If it's going to snow anywhere in Pembrokeshire-- it's Login!

Yep- wouldn't take much to get Pembrokeshire properly in the mix and slight westward corrections today (NAE) have been encouraging... there's still so many variables, it's not out of the question. As it stands, I think that even in Pembs the higher ground N and E of the A40 (Whitland-Haverfordwest-Fishguard) will see a few centimetres. Fingers crossed for positive developments from the runs this evening... 4.4c currently and a few spits and spots of rain.