[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Obscene! 

 

A chart worth framing

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just now, nick sussex said:

The UK wants and deserves the deep purple incredible cold not the leftover -14 scraps ! Lol 

Lets aim high ! 

 

Set the alarm for the 0Z upgrades! 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

-14 uppers well inland.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Oh my goodness

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

This is the eastern limit of the mild air. Never gets further than the southwest tip of Ireland. Midday temps.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

What breakdown

 

I think the 0Z runs may even improve further.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Atlantic struggling to get east on the GFS now. Front slowing to a crawl over Ireland. Cold air hanging on.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Looks like slightly better ridging at 96 hours on the GFS.  Cold air is slightly further west at 96.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Big changes afoot on the 18Z GEFS. Strong signal for a ridge to develop and deep cold to pool into central Europe.

Could we see something like this on the 0Z in the morning....

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

At 210 the cold air is pushing back into the SE... Someone put on the Rocky theme music.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Look at that cold pool in Eastern Europe Wow.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, phil nw. said:

If GfS is starting to disrupt against the cold block then there must be hope of further improvements. 

Ensembles will be interesting! And the 0Z runs....

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

18Z GFS is a move in the right direction! If we could just get that ridge to develop a bit further west....

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

On the 12Z ICON, less cold air is pushing in from the southwest about 24 hours earlier than on the 0Z run. Hoping for better from the UKMO and GFS.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Increasing confidence with each run that milder air will push in from the southwest from Thursday. There is still time remaining for that to change, it's still 6 days away and we all know how much the 144 charts can change, but I do think it looks likely at the moment. There seems to be little in terms of blocking to prevent the Atlantic pushing in. Our best hope is for the low pressure to slide south and hopefully we will see hints of that cropping up on the models soon. But whatever happens, at least the cold spell from the weekend to Thursday does look 100% locked in at this change and some places will be seeing signifcant snow.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Thankfully this is 240 hours away and likely to change! 

 

 

It does look increasingly likely that less cold air will begin to move in after 144 hours, but that doesn't mean there won't be further changes on the models before we get there. 

 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

19 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

GFS snowfall accumulations initialized on 26th February for 28th Feb midday. Boy were they underestimations @Scott Ingham

Looking back at 2018, this was the GFS snow prediction just before Storm Emma, which  actually produced an offical snow depth on the level of up to 69cm in the east of Ireland and drifts of up to 7 meters in places there due to strong winds.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Any breakdown is still 144+ hours away and as such will almost certainly change from what we are seeing now at that timeframe, for better or worse.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

-10 uppers reaching the Atlantic, where they are -6 at the same time on the 12Z

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

-19 windchill? 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

06Z GEFS 850 mean at 186 hours looks about 4 degrees colder than than the 0Z for most places. More positive signs.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:

I only see -10s with -12 clipping south east or are my eyes deceiving me

A little later in the run,  -14 almost touches the coast.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just taking a moment to appreciate an amazing EC ensemble mean chart for 144 hours.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

06Z GEFS is out to 126 on Meteociel and the cold air is reaching slightly further west than the 0Z at that time.

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Notty said:

LP stopped in it's tracks

Yes, the low is weaker and further west than on the 0Z. It's a small secondary low that spins up and crashes in on Thursday, but that will probably be gone on the next run.