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radiohead

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Everything posted by radiohead

  1. radiohead
    18Z GFS has it at 967mb over Wales at 63 hours, which is the same at the 12Z ECM at 72 hours.
  2. radiohead
    18Z GFS is rolling, only out to 42 hours, but it's 5mb deeper than the 12Z so far. 977mb at 48 hours.
  3. radiohead
    12Z GFS showing convective gusts up to 80 knots (92 mph) possible in the far souheast.
  4. radiohead
    12Z ECM simulated cloudcover at 63 hours, showing the classic structure of an intense windstorm. You usually see the likes of this off the west coast of Scotland, rather than heading up into the Celtic Sea. 'Oratia' (2000) for comparison :
  5. radiohead
    Yes, the track is a little further north. It was issued at 17:54:41 UTC so it's quite recent. http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_48hrbw.gif
  6. radiohead
    This is from the National Weather Serivce Ocean Prediction Center 48 hour chart (midday Sunday) Note the "Developing hurricane force" and the track indicated by the arrow over the UK.
  7. radiohead
    12Z ECM is 967mb over Wales at 72 hours :
  8. radiohead
    And yet the Burns Day storm is literally what the Met Office compared this to today.
  9. radiohead
    980mb on the 60 hour Fax. So like the 12Z UKMO, a little weaker than previous?
  10. radiohead
    12Z UKMO is about 5mb weaker than the 0Z. No northward shift in track. 12Z GEM looks slightly weaker than the 0Z run.
  11. radiohead
    I think it's very unlikely it will be that severe, I would guess something more like October 2000, though maybe not as strong. But it's too early to know anyway.
  12. radiohead
    12Z GFS, 970mb, stronger and a little further north than the 06Z.
  13. radiohead
    This is going to be an interesting 12Z GFS....
  14. radiohead
    12Z NAE at 48 hours shows the low approaching from the southwest at 994mb with 50mph sustained winds.
  15. radiohead
    I'd be surprised if it was that severe. Hopefully not.
  16. radiohead
    It looks like it will be named Christian. It's the next name on the list. http://www.met.fu-berlin.de/adopt-a-vortex/tief/
  17. radiohead
    A larger Amber area now. And this from the Chief Forecaster's assessment :
  18. radiohead
    06Z GFS shows a more intense low than the 0Z. About 10mb deeper, thus an upgrade for winds along the south coast and in the channel. Still weaker and more southerly than the ECM, UKMO solutions. Comparing the 06Z GFS and 06Z NAE at 48 hours. NAE has a 1000mb low. GFS, more elongated and a little weaker
  19. radiohead
    Yes, good point. Back in the 90's here we had gusts of 90+ mph from a rapidly developing low with pressure "only" in the mid 970mb range. Sometimes you can get very strong convective gusts from winds higher up that get carried down to the surface level. It doesn't always happen but worth remembering when looking at models gust predictions that are based on pressure difference that doesn't take convective gusts into account.
  20. radiohead
    It's probably due to a number of things, but the latest ECMWF does show a more intense storm this morning.
  21. radiohead
    0Z ECMWF looks to be the most intense of this mornings models. And you wouldn't usually bet against the EC at 72 hours. Shows the low down to 964mb in the Irish Sea : The simulated cloudcover shows the unmistakable structure of an intense windstorm :
  22. radiohead
    The majority, including the control run, show a more intense low than the operational.
  23. radiohead
    Looks as far north on the Fax as it does on the UKMO to me?
  24. radiohead
    In terms of changes to the track and intensity, the 06Z "downgraded", the 12Z "upgraded" and now the 18Z "downgraded". I don't think there is anything special about this latest run of the GFS which makes it the definitive version of what will happen on Monday, it's just as likely to be as wrong in the morning when the 0Z comes out, as the previous runs were. It's also a bit at odds with the EC/UKMO/FAX. I think we'll continue to see changes up until Saturday, maybe even Sunday morning.
  25. radiohead
    18Z GFS shows a weaker low, 980mb.
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