radiohead

The new 96 hour FAX is out. The low looks to be 964mb there.

For what it's worth, a poster on UKWW (Dave W) suggested that very strong winds higher up could travel down to the surface in convective gusts :

http://uk.weather.com/story/news/severe-weather-outlook-st-jude-day-storm-28th-october-2013-20131023

ECMWF 968mb. GFS 972mb. Isobars look tigher over the UK on the ECMWF compared to the GFS. GFS above, ECMWF below :

Actually...Isobars look quite a bit tighter on the ECMWF over the UK compared to the GFS!

12Z ECMWF at 96 hours. 968mb. Looks a bit further north and slightly more intense than GFS at first glance, more like UKMO?

Thankfully the models aren't showing anything quite as severe as that. 1987 was a 953mb storm with gusts of 100 knots.

12Z UKMO shows a 965mb low off the northeast UK coast at 96 hours. Looks like a slightly more northerly track than the GFS, and around 5mb more intense.

12Z GFS 972mb over the UK at T90. T93, a few mb lower as it crosses the coast.

Yes, the gridded data for boundary parameters would be supplied by the GFS for the NMM in this part of the world. Page 7 on here. Sorry for taking things a little off topic.

I think the NMM gets its boundary values from the GFS though, since it's not a global model.

That would have been based on the output of the 06Z GFS, which took a more southerly route. Like you say, it'll probably change again soon enough anyway! 12Z models will be rolling out shortly.

Met Office have released a video on Monday's potential : http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ne3rDk1XM5M http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2013/Severe-storm-risk

BBC Weather video on Monday's potential. http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/24655853

Look how tight the isobars are in the Bristol channel. Very strong winds in the southwest there.

I agree, the track and intensity will probably change from run to run until the weekend when it gets into NAE and the other hi res models territory.

06Z GFS has the track further south and about 15-20mb weaker than the 0Z run. Going to be a while before this one is nailed down...

06Z GFS has Monday's low about 20mb weaker and further south.

Yep, its possible it goes further south..or north. Yesterday the ECMWF (and GFS for a while) were showing the worst of the winds ending up in France, but this morning its changed to a more intense and more northerly track similar to the current GFS. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see more changes on the models in the days ahead!

GFS ensemble has the centre of the low at 970mb north of Scotland As does the ECM ensemble The Met office give Darlo a max gust speed of 37mph for Monday hopefully that's the worst it will get ____________________________________________________________________________________________________ The low on those ensemble charts is a low tracking eastward from the southern tip of Greenland, it is not the same low which the operational GFS and ECMWF shows developing in the southwest and heading over southern UK. It's not clearly seen on ensemble mean charts because of members that don't develop it cancel out the signal from those that do.

The 0Z FAX at T84 and the and 0Z GFS at T84 look pretty similar with regards to strength and position of the low.

0Z ECMWF at 105 hours. 972mb and showing sustained winds of 50 knots reaching southwest coasts.

The 0Z GFS operational is 966 at T99 on this chart.

That's yesterday's 12Z. The 0Z ECMWF has shifted to a track futher north like the GFS. It's actually a little more intense than the GFS as it approaches the UK :