radiohead

Estimated MSLP is incredible...

Watching Indian TV news online a short while ago, they had an Indian Met departmant guy on, asking if they were underestimating this since the JWTC are forecasting a much stronger storm (320+ km/h gusts). He said he didn't think the criticism was fair because this will be impacting a "very small area" for a short period of time...

After undergoing an eyewall replacement this morning, Phailin is strengthening again with more time over warm waters still to go before landfall. Latest ADT estimates : 919mb, 140 knots, cloud tops -83.6.

Most recent at the bottom, updates ever half hour. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/02B-list.txt

If the ADT estimate were to be correct, then Phailin would be the most intense cyclone ever recorded in the North Indian Basin. Odisha (1999) was 912mb and had winds of 260 km/h.

ADT estimates keep getting stronger. It's just an estimate based on imagery but now at 910mb and and 281 km/h. You'd imagine the storm surge will be a huge concern with something this intense and large....

The latest ADT estimates based on satellite interpretation are stunning : 917.5 (mb)146.0 (270 km/h)

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-11-2013.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-12-2013.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-1-2014.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-2-2014.png http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/2013100712/cfsnh-3-3-2014.png You can find all the CFS archives over the past 12 months here : http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/monthly/archives/

GFS moving towards the 850 temps shown by the ECM and GEM today? Warmer that the 12Z anyway....

The 12Z ECM actually has 24-26 uppers reaching up into the UK. With 26-28 touching the Channel.

Edit : Wrong forum. Posted in model thread.

12Z GFS has warmer uppers even earlier than the 06Z

Hello....

The numbers are the Lifted Index, the more negative the figure the better. The colours correspond to CAPE : the higher the better.

kph not mph