Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

The watcher

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,842

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by The watcher

  1. The watcher
    At the minute I wouldn't like to call anything, a run up of the models today/morning would be cooler in the long run but very messy, any cold severe enough for snow is just a quick skurmish with Central and Eastern parts of the UK days 5-7. Thereafter on GFS, back to what we had most of December. On ECM however: A HP ridges in from the East at day 10, but the Atlantic looms again. Not very promising for us I'm afraid to say this morning. There's a reason why the MOD thread gets excited by an Easterly all the time. Most of them will get hit directly by it. Ireland however, rarely gets a severe Easterly spell that delivers. I don't think however that our chances are gone yet. The area of concern in regards to what happens with the HP to our immediate West/SW is at days 7-10, so this can still change quite a bit. Then we have beyond that, which as ever, is subject to any volume of change regarding the current circumstances.
  2. The watcher
    I tend not to read Murrs posts anymore, because quite simply if it doesn't show a very cold pool of air heading into SE England then it's a bad run. Regardless of what is being said of the Output at the moment, the potential is still there for either/or to happen and especially later on in the month rather than 5-7 days away. The mid latitude high in the Atlantic at +138 is what I'm keeping my eye on. That is OUR big chance to be in the spotlight in 10-15 days time.
  3. The watcher
    I haven't seen the SLP charts for that, but it looks like the battle ground between East and West has set up shop in the middle of Eire.
  4. The watcher
    I checked my attic, seems alright to me. On a serious note, how does it not have any effect on our weather? Surely all that cold has to drop out somewhere, even if it is not in our area, it still has an effect on what occurs here, and everywhere in the Northern hemisphere. Also, on the basis that the models are simply a prediction (NWP) and the cold is within touching distances, only subtle changes are required to get it here. Bearing in mind then that we are expecting variables in the output over the next few days or more, I cannot see how any cold spell has been scuppered, should it be about to occur or not. Too many conflicts of ideas and such a small margin for error to say exactly what will happen in 10-15 days time. Potential still available for both causes and pretty much our weather could still come from anywhere under the sun. ECM and BOM providing another solution to that matter....to be expected though at this time range. Now, with the details at hand (SSW, MJO, etc), what would you favor?
  5. The watcher
    Best way to be IMO. You have to be optimistic in this game, otherwise your losses will exceed your gains. The glass is half full, but if you take another swig, it'll be closer to empty. It has been dry here in Bangor last 2 days (except for a little drizzle last night) but dull. Feels cooler today than the last 2 days have been., but not by much.
  6. The watcher
    Some excellent posts today in the MOD (as well as the filler crap in between lol), but I think we can now assert that we are at least looking at returning to a cooler spell with temps dropping back to normal or just below over the course of the next week. Question now on mine and many lips is "How will things shape up after?" What has really got my attention is the MJO forecasts and their composites. Phases 7-8 over the course of January from mid month, plus 2 SSW events, maybe 3. Will these hold water and create one long spell of HLB and Split PV? It looks very, very good to do so. Still concerned with how close the WAA is to Ireland though, but because the models have not got a handle yet, the SSW event may help to back the pattern West a bit due to the lax/reversal in mean winds. It's been over a month since we had excitement like this in the weather, looks like it is back to watching again full tilt.
  7. The watcher
    Shaping up indeed, and the warming hasn't even occurred yet. Hopefully it shifts West so that Ireland is not in the area of WAA with only Eastern areas of the UK seeing the cold air. Also, good to see the MJO forecast start to favor the colder scenario aswell. Some interesting few days coming up.
  8. The watcher
    We have the least members in our region for the forum, Scotland a close second, that's why it is not usually that busy. However, there should be alot more than just 10 of us (Baltic, Sundog, Stormforce, Mountain Shadow, Gingercat, Ronan, jamesd, BIG Lad, etc). Downburst is usually in, haven't seen him much at all this winter.
  9. The watcher
    At the minute we have subtle signs that something might turn in favor of some colder weather, but we are still in the very early stages of this. I was glad to see the increase in ensemble members pointing colder than earlier yesterdays. What does concern me though is the large spread, which to me says it is another spell with the same risks as the late November/Early December Russian High spell (although with a HP to our North this time). I wish those pesky PV areas around Greenland would disperse. This is the area I would like our cold spell to be controlled from.
  10. The watcher
    It will be interesting to see what the ECM32 dayer has to say tomorrow and next week. Could be some tentative signs amongst its ensembles. If you are taking 10+ day charts at face value, then yes, they are poor......for now.
  11. The watcher
    You're late, bar is closed. hehe
  12. The watcher
    Happy new year for later folks. Getting ready to P.A.R.T.Y. at 7:30pm, especially since there's a free bar for an hour or so. 2013 wants: Snow BBQ Summer Girlfriend Money Peace
  13. The watcher
    around 5c first half, dropping off with a colder spell 2nd half. Final Figure: 3.8c
  14. The watcher
    Finally got my internet topped up after having the xmas empty wallet syndrome. Good to see somewhere has finally got some snow, if of the marginal kind (to low levels). I was just walking along the seafront earlier today and the wind had that chill about it. I see our hopes of prolonged cold are set for mid January onwards with an SSW event quite probable early January?
  15. The watcher
    Merry chrimbo Ireland regional goers. I give you all the gift of promise, promise that we will soon see our snow.
  16. The watcher
    My thoughts are for a couple of transient North or Northwest spells in the next 10 days and feeling cool/cold. Some wintry showers around. Still this weekend and start of next week will be mild though. Beyond new year I have not a clue at this stage. We are due a relatively strong cold spell, I would punt at this being from the North as the Russian HP (pain in the hole) fades away.
  17. The watcher
    Thread now being locked and new one being created. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75351-ireland-regional-discussion-211212-and-beyond/
  18. The watcher
    Here ye go scallywags, so Christmas just round the corner with a possible N/NW incursion soon. Discuss.
  19. The watcher
    Will get a new thread sorted for ye lot now. We'll call it the luck of the irish snow thread. Maybe not, but anyway.
  20. The watcher
    I know all this Meto Talk is off topic, so apologies as this will be deleted at some point. I recall just a few weeks ago when it looked like the BFTE was about to establish itself over the UK, that the Met had said in their 15-30 day outlook for December we were heading for a below average period of temperatures with widespread frost, some snow et all. When the models changed their outlook, so did the Metoffice. So in any case, when the models change, so will they. Right now there is some uncertainty in the model outlook, but the in favor synoptic is for an average to above average setup with mostly unsettled conditions, so no change is needed to their outlook until they deem fit to do so in regards to what Model Output is saying is the most likely outcome.
  21. The watcher
    The models do cope better with Greenland height rises, definitely more so than they do with HP on the continent. Seeing a hint of this is most of the time a good sign which is why the ensembles show much less scatter than they did when the Easterly was showing. You are right to keep a level head though, with such pace in the Atlantic and so much energy being thrown around, it needs to be a strong build to remain in situ. Could very well only be a 48 hour spell of Northerlies.
  22. The watcher
    Interesting output for around Christmas day. We may see some snowfall this side of Winter afterall, and the ensembles show that it is not an outlier at all, it is supported for a cool down around Christmas day. How cool/cold, still debatable. Greenland may actually go green for a change (in 850temps), while we go white at ground level.
  23. The watcher
    Yes, but if we look 2 days beyond that warm up, a cool down ALSO seems likely with every single member dropping by 5-10c or more at 850hpa. There is not a huge scatter until around day10. However, with uncertainty regarding the track of SW in regards to Atlantic/Block battle at day 5-7, I would have expected alot more scatter at this timescale.
  24. The watcher
    I'm looking for the safer route to cold, especially for us. That is an Atlantic/Greenland block. Looks like some ridges from the Azores are now showing in the models, this will help slow down the Atlantic train a bit, it may look mild and unsettled, but things can change very quickly.
  25. The watcher
    Frost lasted all day here in shaded spots, that is some going considering I'm around 400metres from the Sea. Would put today's maximum temperature at around 3c.
×
×
  • Create New...