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The watcher

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  1. The watcher
    I calculate that as around 35,000km away. Roughly you could fit 3 earths between us and its nearest point.
  2. The watcher
    Does anyone get the "Oh you are a weather man, like on the tv" question? They don't seem to know either that there is a whole team involved in the background to come up with the forecasts and different levels of knowledge at hand. TV Forecasters are sometimes just a pretty friendly face to share with the public.
  3. The watcher
    When I tell people my hobby is weather watching and forecasting they think I'm a complete weirdo. They seem to think I stand looking at the clouds or with a thermometer to get the temperature. They seem to forget the maths crunching and physics involved. This is why I found Netweather to be my second home from home. I can be with like minded people who share the same interest and know the hard work and stress involved with our chaotic weather.
  4. The watcher
    Definitely CS, a lot of people get sucked into the whole "Easterlies are epic" thing when they do crop up and then get very disappointed when everything (precipitation wise) is in Eastern parts of the UK. The difference with 2010 was we had a HP that batted back and forth between Scandi and Greenland and this helped deliver for most if not all parts of the UK due to the differing angles of attack. I also much prefer a NW/N/NE attack. If we had a NE attack to deliver cold then seen a movement to West of North, it would be one of the better scenarios for most of us. Only thing better is a battleground scenario over Ireland with the cold winning outright.
  5. The watcher
    A Northerly down the line is a VERY good possibility, PV moving to Siberia will help height potential in Greenland area. We still have a relatively cold 4 days coming and the prospects beyond do not change in possibilities.
  6. The watcher
    For next weeks colder spell it is becoming quite tedious looking at the charts and seeing HP or slack flow around Ireland with the bulk of cold uppers remaining to the Eastern Side of the UK. As an aside though, being the furthest West and an Island prone to the Atlantic influence, the waiting game is longer than for any other part of the UK for us. So don't get hung up on specifics just yet would be my advice, to everyone and myself. We have some chances within the reliable to look forward to first. I'm however, liking the more Northerly orientated flow rather than East.
  7. The watcher
    They do, 18z run doesn't tell the true story as it is on the milder side of the ensemble mean (not by much though and mainly in FI). Mean at -5c 850 throughout. Cold Seekers FI currently at the 7/8 day period with detailed FI in around 36 hours.
  8. The watcher
    What's your view on the risk of snowfall given the likely setup for next week MS? I'm thinking showers to East coast, some pushing inland. Possibly some frontal snow for Southern Ireland (nearest any Lows/Shortwaves to the South). I know it is still early days, but nice to speculate a little.
  9. The watcher
    The models could be talking crap aswell for all we know. Good consistency, but consistency is no good if something changes early on in a few hours. Can be the difference between an Easterly and a Southwesterly. However, with all the signals pointing to something of this nature (beyond the synoptic models) then I would put what is being shown now at a fairly high 65% rate of happening. Widespread Ireland snowfall in 8/9 days is what I would consider.
  10. The watcher
    I usually set the ball park at -10c 850's for snowfall across Ireland in an Easterly. Two reasons for this: 1. To help kick off convection from the Irish Sea 2. To allow the convection to be deep enough for reaching well inland. Although, with retrogression to Greenland looking favourable after the initial Easterly we could see a win win situation anyway, embedded cold followed by precipitation and frontal activity.
  11. The watcher
    Welcome CS to our little corner of the forums, also Adalton, Welcome. Just in from work and about to give the days runs a look over. Sound promising from what you all say. In an Easterly it is difficult for us to get snowfall 70% of the time, but once the cold is established, the snow will come eventually.
  12. The watcher
    Hi there Crimson, head on over to the Ireland thread in the regional section and have a look in, we have a few "Corkies" on here, we look forward to your input and updates. The Watcher
  13. The watcher
    Could you put your location on your profile please so we can see where abouts (roughly) you are. Helps indicate what weather is where. Radar confirms that some places seen snow just before midnight. Says sleet here around 12:30am, but forgot to look out as that band came through so cannot confirm myself.
  14. The watcher
  15. The watcher
    Chance tonight and tomorrow for you also. Some showers about on the North coast which may turn wintry overnight and into tomorrow.
  16. The watcher
    Here here, I hope some take heed of this. We should all have learnt lessons from last week that not "one" run can be assumed right on the basis of it showing more cold than others. Over the years on Netweather I have seen the verification stats change quite often between UKMO, ECM and GFS leading the way at times, so it is a bit futile bringing these up. We should be looking at the top 3/4 models as a whole and seeing what agreements they lead to with eachother. No point having a team of models if we don't use them together to see what is nearer the mark.
  17. The watcher
    I haven't even seen a drop of rain yet. The band has pivoted and did all sorts of weird stunts lol.
  18. The watcher
    Thickening cloud and rain/sleet moving in now from the West. Will be interesting to see if there will be any snow reports from this as it bumps into the colder air.
  19. The watcher
    Models indicate a plunge from the North on Tuesday eve with the possibility of a front/shower band associated with it as -3 850's suddenly get swept aside to -6/-7s from the North. Certainly cold enough for snowfall and 500hgts, etc are also conducive. It is however looking likely to be just a brief affair, 36 hours or so. A chance however for places to see first low level snowfall and a start to some lamppost watching. Whole of Ireland included as -5/6s sweep down over us all, lets hope the precipitation upgrades more.
  20. The watcher
    I see the models are sugar coating those FI charts again....as usual though everyone seems to forget what happened last time. Some rain coming through Ireland tonight and tomorrow and could be some Sleet/Snow attached to it, mainly for hills though. Something to keep an eye on though for the time being and then we can look on to Tuesday. Once again, another quite chilly Winter day (the first one actually) with some good sunny spells and feeling relatively pleasant in the sun today. Has made my hangover recovery a lot swifter.
  21. The watcher
    Best outcome for Ireland as a whole: A strong Northerly flow introducing wishbone effect showers down North, West and East facing coasts, penetrating well inland on a strong breeze with a front moving down through the country as -5 and -10c uppers squeeze together against 0c's 150miles South of the South Ireland coastline.
  22. The watcher
    3.6c please. A month characterized with transient but potent Northerly spells with short milder periods, cold spell around Christmas towards new year (mainly settled) with severe frosts bringing the CET down from average to 3.6c
  23. The watcher
    6.9, provisional to the 29th. Just a tenth or two too high for my guess I think.
  24. The watcher
    We are still in a relatively cool/cold spell, just not enough for widespread snowfall. I was disappointed to see the real cold spell swiftly booted away, but had a brave idea that it may have been the case. The elongated high out in the Atlantic was shown to be very fragile and collapse, as it did so in the 06z late last week and although I touted this as a possibility in the MOD thread I was swiftly pounced upon by those who believe we should bin the respective 18z and 06z runs for missing data. It was simply a case of too much energy being thumped West/SW from the trough to the East of Canada. I think it hit alot of us for six, but it is only touching on the beginning of Winter and we will have plenty of chances throughout the season. November is looking like it may well be coming in just below average, another below month to add to an already quite high tally. I haven't been into the MOD thread in a bit, once you have seen and been here for a while, you will know once the Atlantic gets a look in it will remain in a similar vain for a week or so. Probably be a few ridges thrown up here and there and some transient back end Northerlies in passing Lows, but the pattern is a little tedious in longevity. I haven't had the chance to do out a LRF for the winter yet, I will do just that this weekend. Preliminary thoughts are for a just below average winter as a whole, will detail in the summary. Will be an interesting forecast from me as I have delved more into teleconnections over the last year, something that I never really understood before. The snow blower isn't bubble wrapped yet. Edit: Just had a look at the models and I'm surprised to see quite a few low level snowfall risks over the coming 10 days. Especially the Tuesday event (as MS mentioned)
  25. The watcher
    About to have a look in the MOD thread Ronan and I will give us a rundown in the morning.
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