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The watcher

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  1. The watcher
    Well, was going to respond to this after the ECM, but wow, spanner in the works doesn't cut it. That ECM evolution is a plausible one. I'm afraid it is eyes down again for another 24-48 hours before we know what next weekend has to offer.
  2. The watcher
    Another 24hours of runs like todays 12z and I'll be exceedingly excited, like a mr Kipling cake. IF the 12z does hold its water and other models remain similar (mainly beyond next weekend) it may be time to start topping up the heating and prepare for a 2 week spell of noteworthy cold. Preparation is key to keeping normal life running smoothly in adverse conditions.
  3. The watcher
    I can see the low cloud starting to drop to sea level here now. Has been a sunny day though but nippy.
  4. The watcher
    Wether they miss data or not, they could still be right. You don't need all the facts to solve a murder, sometimes extra evidence just leads to more suspects. Surely balloon data from the previous release is still fed into the 18 and 06z? Would make sense to do so. If that is the case, I don't think any infliction to output is noteworthy enough to dismiss a run. With the short term ensembles seeing spread as they did today (on all models) it is clear that we are still awaiting agreement on other near term factors before we can get a handle on the beyond. I'm sticking to the anomalys until I see agreement on all the models in the short term. Still too big a risk to place any trough or heights within the space of 500 miles by day 5.
  5. The watcher
    6.7 - 6.9c a reasonable area to have your guess at the minute.
  6. The watcher
    Fixed your posts, they said 2012 rather than 2010. It's the only moderating I get to do in here, everyone's easy to get on with in our regional. Again, charts showing the potential tonight, but not of the extraordinary type we seen 2 days ago. Don't think we will know how part 1 will pan out for another 48-72 hours yet.
  7. The watcher
    I think we all share a little worry when it comes to extreme weather gc. That is why we are all here wondering what is going to happen next and share it to those that need the information. An extreme event is probably only a 20% chance at the moment though, a winter cold spell maybe 7-10 days is what we are considering at the moment with ice and snowfall for some. It has the potential to be as potent or more as 2010, but that would be a super rare event. Unfortunately it is all out of our hands, the best we can do is watch and see what happens and prepare for it. Wouldn't it be great if we could have snowfall in heatwave temperatures. P.S. Welcome back to some of you and new faces. Enjoy the rollercoaster this winter.
  8. The watcher
    heavy squally rain with hailstones and strong winds here now.
  9. The watcher
    I might do an all nighter tonight to watch the cold front come through. Probably won't though. Absolutely astonishing charts tonight. What percentage do you think I'll give a NorthEasterly this time then? I will hold back the celebrations for now though. Still time for it all to go tits up. I was looking at charts earlier thinking, not much margin for error in regards to where the real cold uppers go. Look back tonight and the North Pole near lands ontop of us.
  10. The watcher
    Current strikes in UK (clusters and strikes to SW/W of Ireland.
  11. The watcher
    The cold front will come through all areas, possibly turning into a squall line as it does so. Winds will effect all areas aswell, gusts to 50-60mph possible, especially Eastern coasts. Rain looks to be heaviest further South, but still heavy in the North. Possibility of embedded thunder and lightning too and a slight risk of an isolated tornado (mainly for mainland UK). It is an interesting feature, definitely one to keep a watch on. Already winds are beginning to converge to the West of Ireland forming a bow.
  12. The watcher
    meanwhile, the next 12-24 hours look interesting in regards to a very active cold front coming through. Already ALOT of sferics detected in SW Ireland. Also looks to be some vigorous winds attached to the front.
  13. The watcher
    It's the same old story every year Ronan, we have something of notice coming and people are already looking for downfalls beyond that. The trend is good, we are pretty much on the verge of guarantee for a cold spell end of month. Type of cold still up for grabs, whether it be inversion, Northerly or North Easterly. We can pin down details of any snow risk when the time gets closer (ie24-72 hours)
  14. The watcher
    Flies/Insects flying close to the camera maybe?
  15. The watcher
    I'd rather there was no link-up between the two HPs, however, in saying that, it would not be out of the question for a Low to squeeze down between the 2 and bring alot of cold with it.
  16. The watcher
    I wouldn't see HP to the North of Scotland as a bad thing though. 1. A little shove East and hey presto, we have a cold pool in place over Europe and an Easterly. 2. Sucked West and we have a Northerly with cold pouring down over us. Of course, the other options aren't as pretty, but at least we have options.
  17. The watcher
    -6 to -8c uppers widely, yes, cold enough in regards to 850 temps. Still plenty of other factors to take into account though.
  18. The watcher
    Things in the cold outlook coming closer now. Again heights to the NW looking a favourable outcome. Obviously too early to go into detail at the minute, especially with the uncertainty over what kind of cold pool will be available and how close to the UK HP will be. Going to be some intense model watching over the next few days.
  19. The watcher
    Not good mate. Hope it gets worked out alright. Yes I also thought the comp would be over by now, but don't think anyone confirmed it on here. Tonight is awful weather wise, heavy rain and strong winds for a few hours now.
  20. The watcher
    Ian McCaskill and Michael were my faves and seen Rob McElwee a few times too. However, weather shouldn't be boring and neither should the forecasters. We are people too and are allowed to have fun.
  21. The watcher
    Its good to see others come out of the woodwork. I don't think it is a sentimental thing to me, just the way my brain interacts with certain sounds. It must release a calming chemical of some sort. It would actually come second to the most sensual of sex to me in feeling that good, maybe even better. Sometimes it can be so intense that I would fear moving because I don't want it to stop.
  22. The watcher
    So, after seeing the link I posted, I got some of the sounds that relax me off youtube, it worked very well. Put me to sleep last night and I slept like a baby to the sound of "Sorting office supplies" and "turning pages of a textbook". God I'm strange.
  23. The watcher
    Right now I would say: 60% - Some sort of Greenland/block to our Northwest bringing a North/Northeasterly. 20% - Easterly solution 10% - HP directly over UK 10% - Continuation of what we see now. I suppose a bit of IMBY bias to that, as we would do best with a North/NEsterly at the moment rather than an Easterly/Continental feed. Not much cold to be had showing on the models when an Easterly is projected and because of the link up of HP right across Russia, it keeps the core cold further North and East and would take an age for us to get those very cold uppers to the UK.
  24. The watcher
    I think we are all on knife edge at the moment, things still firming up but on the cusp of being the synoptic pattern come end of the month. GP's post earlier today about HP to the NW sounded promising as this is what I alluded to as our best chance in my percentages a few days ago. 40% it was, but I now think this is up to 60% now. Everyday is a model rollercoaster now and it is pretty much spot on how Winter always is on netweather. It has arrived early once more.
  25. The watcher
    Well, this is a very rare subject, I haven't seen many people who have the same condition as me. http://www.biology-online.org/biology-forum/about18829.html What is it all about? Well, if I'm sitting in a quiet room and or environment and I hear certain sounds (for example, someone rustling paper, turning pages of a book, moving things around, typing on a keyboard, etc) I start to get this strange tingly feeling on my back/shoulders, I then start to relax. The sensation then begins to move throughout the body, in particular the head where my hair feels like it is rising or standing on end. It is like a euphoric state, almost (although without having tried any) taking a drug that gives a lovely sensation. It almost paralyzes me, not to the point were I cannot move, but because the sensation is so relaxing and good feeling that I don't want it to stop. If I move or a louder more aggressive sound interrupts the sensation disappears. It is like some sort of inner massage of the nervous system. I would like to know if anyone on here has the same condition. It is completely different to any other relaxation method I have ever known and only seems to work if someone else is creating the sound/movement.
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