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The watcher

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  1. The watcher
    More mobile, West based -NAO, very wet. Mean wind direction between W-NW. Just below average: 6.7c please
  2. The watcher
    What are we looking at in regards to the colder spell this week convection wise. Do you think there will be a risk of some hail showers?
  3. The watcher
    The lightning came from such a small area of precipitation that night, from Rain Today radar it was one small pixel of very heavy/torrential precipitation and a few heavy surrounding it followed by mainly light pixel echos. It was a very local event and although not rare (as thundersnow was occasionally seen that Winter and in 2009 in many places around Ireland) it is still amazing to see the light refract and reflect around the sky and ground so full of white.
  4. The watcher
    Not expecting much for our little Isle in this upcoming spell wintry precipitation wise. Certainly decent frosts to look forward to but any sleet/snowfall reserved for hill tops/mountains with maybe a little wintry mix inland to lower levels. I'm talking about Ireland here....before anyone decides to take a huff and puff.
  5. The watcher
    Yeah Ronan, December 2010 was the last I remember. It was mainly a hailstorm with some snow mixed in. Best thunderstorm for years that one. Dropped a few inches at least with hailstones the size of peas.
  6. The watcher
    This guy has it right, you can only Ramp at certain times.
  7. The watcher
    Lazy bugger ye. Nevermind hibernating..... I wouldn't mind having a few hail showers though in this cold spell, I haven't had a decent hail shower for longer than a year now, infact I cannot remember the last time I seen a hailstone.
  8. The watcher
    It hasn't snowed yet, so keep your hat on, erm...probably off actually, It ain't cold enough for a hat to be on yet .
  9. The watcher
    It isn't looking like snow will be seen with this snap unless you manage to be on the highest peaks of the Mournes whenever precipitation is around. A few degrees too mild at surface level at least and 850's, 500dam, are on the wrong side of marginal for this time of year.
  10. The watcher
    It will get cooler than that over the weekend I would imagine. Heading over to the MOD thread now to see what has been happening overnight and this morning.
  11. The watcher
    If GFS 18Z comes to fruition, looks like the first snowfall guess competition will be over and won on 29th October with Stormforce being our champion (being the closest). But as we all know, from this timeframe, precipitation is horrific verification wise.
  12. The watcher
    I would just like to say to Crewecold, well done for sticking your neck out and making a forecast . People may disagree/hate on you for calling an above average start, but what will they say if you are right? I think people need to remember that nobody is wrong in their forecast until we see the actual outcome. A little bit of respect isn't too much to ask, I'm sure he will admit he was wrong if it goes the other way, but least he had the guts to say what he thinks we will see for this winter, even if it wasn't what he would like himself. Let us all enjoy our upcoming tasters first.
  13. The watcher
    I remember as a young lad at the age of 15/16 looking at Silverlining tours photos and chase site. I will consider it Tony.
  14. The watcher
    I won't have snow, that's for sure, but what I would like to see is some hail showers/wintry showers.
  15. The watcher
    Good ECM, keeping close to the UKMO output and veering away from the GFS's Eastward progression. The lack of stubby finger pointing from the HP to our West allows cold to be further West also. More runs needed though.
  16. The watcher
    With GFS we see 1030mb isobar down the centre of the country, with ECM we see the 1020mb and UKMO the 1015mb. So ECM closer to the UKMO indeed if we look at it that way. It's all in the orientation of the HP to our West though, which is making ALL the difference to how far West the coldest air filters down. No stubby little HP fingers pointing SE please.
  17. The watcher
    I could see ECM being a halfway house between GFS and UKMO. 6 days is still a long time to pin down exact details, so a hundred miles here and there is nothing at this stage. We are on the risky side (West) of this PV piece and the slightest of margins makes all the difference, especially considering we usually see an Eastward correction nearer the time in most cases.
  18. The watcher
    Well, after a dissapointing 12z GFS for potential we see the UKMO rescue it again with a more aligned (and no finger pointing/messy High) Northerly. ECM will be an eye opener tonight for sure. It's either too far East or close enough for potential.
  19. The watcher
    Just to make sure nobody thinks the chances of cold/snow are diminished for early winter because someone says it'll be average/slightly mild. Remember that these are over the whole months average, so it is still possible to have a cold spell or two with snow and have an above average or average month CET wise. Don't take forecasts at this stage though as 100% correct either, we are still over 5 weeks away from winter, anything can happen to change the circumstances.
  20. The watcher
    Definitely, especially in mid Winter it would have been a SEVERE spell of wintry weather with us on the Western edge of a displaced vortex with purples and probably the -15c 850hpa line knocking on the doors. What we would like to see at the moment is for the HP to be slightly further West or the little ridge that seemed consistent to point its finger at NW Ireland to dissapear and straighten leaving a full flowing Northerly/NorthEasterly with a chance of some instability for shower activity. Length wise we are looking at least a 5-7 day spell of temperatures ranging from 4-8c by day and below zero at night with first severe frosts of the season. Eyes on the models though, a few things will change, precipitation forecasts will soon be possible and how long it will last is coming into view in the next few days.
  21. The watcher
    You answered the question yourself by saying "some but not all". Not long ago the CFS was showing the opposite for winter and so it can and probably will change again. I'm not too sure either if the CFS uses Strat data in its forecast...does it?
  22. The watcher
    I take it you ment they are swinging to a mild November? Also, we have a few ex metoffice members on this very forum, even people who have studied and got degrees in Meteorology, so the opinions on here can be as professional if you look in the right places. I recommend the Technical Model Output discussion and Strat Thread.
  23. The watcher
    Just on the subject of yesterday evenings discussion about Education for weather forecasting. I was looking at the prospects of doing Meteorology at Reading and I required very good grades in Maths and Physics A-Levels and even in specific modules for Mathematics. I knew physics was an integral part from doing my GCSE's, as the teacher of that time always used to ask me questions such as "How does thunder and lightning occur?" and I'd draw him a picture of a thunderstorm with updraughts, downdraughts, +, neutral energy etc. Weather is a "force" of nature, and that word "force" is most commonly used in physics.
  24. The watcher
    Going to be a mild few days coming up...followed by colder weather later next week. Just how cold for our Island remains debatable. Doesn't look likely to be a widespread snow risk for Ireland, but a "wintry on hills" scenario should we see any precipitation at all. It looks to be a dry and cold synoptic with HP extending down into W/NW (or just above) Ireland. Let us see how further runs change, a little Eastward progression has already started to come in, and may continue.
  25. The watcher
    They said this: “We have the potential for an Indian summer next week, and then the complete opposite in a matter of days. This winter below -18C (0.5F) is not an unlikely prediction.†not that -18c will be seen in this upcoming cold spell, somewhere along the lines of this coming winter. I did see the first sentence though and it just looks to me like the editor of the article has got the wrong end of the stick.
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