The watcher
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Posts posted by The watcher
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This would be nice!! Starting to get close to the reliable time frame to!!
I haven't seen the SLP charts for that, but it looks like the battle ground between East and West has set up shop in the middle of Eire.
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It doesn't matter if there's a massive attic high! If it doesn't affect us then it's irrelevant.
I checked my attic, seems alright to me.
On a serious note, how does it not have any effect on our weather?
Surely all that cold has to drop out somewhere, even if it is not in our area, it still has an effect on what occurs here, and everywhere in the Northern hemisphere.
Also, on the basis that the models are simply a prediction (NWP) and the cold is within touching distances, only subtle changes are required to get it here. Bearing in mind then that we are expecting variables in the output over the next few days or more, I cannot see how any cold spell has been scuppered, should it be about to occur or not.
Too many conflicts of ideas and such a small margin for error to say exactly what will happen in 10-15 days time.
Potential still available for both causes and pretty much our weather could still come from anywhere under the sun.
ECM and BOM providing another solution to that matter....to be expected though at this time range.
Now, with the details at hand (SSW, MJO, etc), what would you favor?
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Certainly looking forward to the next few weeks. Things shaping up nicely! Always a doubt in the back of my mind but!
Best way to be IMO. You have to be optimistic in this game, otherwise your losses will exceed your gains. The glass is half full, but if you take another swig, it'll be closer to empty.
It has been dry here in Bangor last 2 days (except for a little drizzle last night) but dull. Feels cooler today than the last 2 days have been., but not by much.
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Some excellent posts today in the MOD (as well as the filler crap in between lol), but I think we can now assert that we are at least looking at returning to a cooler spell with temps dropping back to normal or just below over the course of the next week. Question now on mine and many lips is "How will things shape up after?"
What has really got my attention is the MJO forecasts and their composites. Phases 7-8 over the course of January from mid month, plus 2 SSW events, maybe 3. Will these hold water and create one long spell of HLB and Split PV? It looks very, very good to do so.
Still concerned with how close the WAA is to Ireland though, but because the models have not got a handle yet, the SSW event may help to back the pattern West a bit due to the lax/reversal in mean winds.
It's been over a month since we had excitement like this in the weather, looks like it is back to watching again full tilt.
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Shaping up indeed, and the warming hasn't even occurred yet. Hopefully it shifts West so that Ireland is not in the area of WAA with only Eastern areas of the UK seeing the cold air.
Also, good to see the MJO forecast start to favor the colder scenario aswell. Some interesting few days coming up.
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We have the least members in our region for the forum, Scotland a close second, that's why it is not usually that busy. However, there should be alot more than just 10 of us (Baltic, Sundog, Stormforce, Mountain Shadow, Gingercat, Ronan, jamesd, BIG Lad, etc). Downburst is usually in, haven't seen him much at all this winter.
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At the minute we have subtle signs that something might turn in favor of some colder weather, but we are still in the very early stages of this. I was glad to see the increase in ensemble members pointing colder than earlier yesterdays. What does concern me though is the large spread, which to me says it is another spell with the same risks as the late November/Early December Russian High spell (although with a HP to our North this time). I wish those pesky PV areas around Greenland would disperse. This is the area I would like our cold spell to be controlled from.
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It will be interesting to see what the ECM32 dayer has to say tomorrow and next week. Could be some tentative signs amongst its ensembles.
If you are taking 10+ day charts at face value, then yes, they are poor......for now.
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And you Watcher and everyone else in our Forum.
I hope 2013 brings you all you wish for especially Peace!
Cheers everyone!
P.S. Watcher: Where is the free bar and what hour?
You're late, bar is closed. hehe
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Happy new year for later folks. Getting ready to P.A.R.T.Y. at 7:30pm, especially since there's a free bar for an hour or so.
2013 wants:
Snow
BBQ Summer
Girlfriend
Money
Peace
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around 5c first half, dropping off with a colder spell 2nd half.
Final Figure: 3.8c
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Finally got my internet topped up after having the xmas empty wallet syndrome. Good to see somewhere has finally got some snow, if of the marginal kind (to low levels). I was just walking along the seafront earlier today and the wind had that chill about it. I see our hopes of prolonged cold are set for mid January onwards with an SSW event quite probable early January?
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Merry chrimbo Ireland regional goers. I give you all the gift of promise, promise that we will soon see our snow.
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My thoughts are for a couple of transient North or Northwest spells in the next 10 days and feeling cool/cold. Some wintry showers around. Still this weekend and start of next week will be mild though. Beyond new year I have not a clue at this stage. We are due a relatively strong cold spell, I would punt at this being from the North as the Russian HP (pain in the hole) fades away.
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Thread now being locked and new one being created.
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75351-ireland-regional-discussion-211212-and-beyond/
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Here ye go scallywags, so Christmas just round the corner with a possible N/NW incursion soon. Discuss.
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Will get a new thread sorted for ye lot now. We'll call it the luck of the irish snow thread. Maybe not, but anyway.
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Agreed,the met over the past couple of winters have called things pretty accurately IMO in the medium and long range forecasts.i find them an excellent tool to use inconjunction with the various model output,and reading between the lines they give you a good idea of which of the models they are favouring.from a cold lovers perspective though there text forecast like the models dosn't always make for good viewing.
I know all this Meto Talk is off topic, so apologies as this will be deleted at some point.
I recall just a few weeks ago when it looked like the BFTE was about to establish itself over the UK, that the Met had said in their 15-30 day outlook for December we were heading for a below average period of temperatures with widespread frost, some snow et all. When the models changed their outlook, so did the Metoffice. So in any case, when the models change, so will they. Right now there is some uncertainty in the model outlook, but the in favor synoptic is for an average to above average setup with mostly unsettled conditions, so no change is needed to their outlook until they deem fit to do so in regards to what Model Output is saying is the most likely outcome.
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The models do cope better with Greenland height rises, definitely more so than they do with HP on the continent. Seeing a hint of this is most of the time a good sign which is why the ensembles show much less scatter than they did when the Easterly was showing. You are right to keep a level head though, with such pace in the Atlantic and so much energy being thrown around, it needs to be a strong build to remain in situ. Could very well only be a 48 hour spell of Northerlies.
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Interesting output for around Christmas day. We may see some snowfall this side of Winter afterall, and the ensembles show that it is not an outlier at all, it is supported for a cool down around Christmas day. How cool/cold, still debatable. Greenland may actually go green for a change (in 850temps), while we go white at ground level.
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GFS 06z ensembles
Another warm up around Christmas seems likely at the moment
Yes, but if we look 2 days beyond that warm up, a cool down ALSO seems likely with every single member dropping by 5-10c or more at 850hpa. There is not a huge scatter until around day10. However, with uncertainty regarding the track of SW in regards to Atlantic/Block battle at day 5-7, I would have expected alot more scatter at this timescale.
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I'm looking for the safer route to cold, especially for us. That is an Atlantic/Greenland block. Looks like some ridges from the Azores are now showing in the models, this will help slow down the Atlantic train a bit, it may look mild and unsettled, but things can change very quickly.
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Frost lasted all day here in shaded spots, that is some going considering I'm around 400metres from the Sea. Would put today's maximum temperature at around 3c.
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Even closer one next year. Not as big as 4179 Toutais but should keep the doom merchants happy
2012DA14 : Feb 15th : 0.09LD 57m
I calculate that as around 35,000km away. Roughly you could fit 3 earths between us and its nearest point.
Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond
in Regional
Posted
I tend not to read Murrs posts anymore, because quite simply if it doesn't show a very cold pool of air heading into SE England then it's a bad run.
Regardless of what is being said of the Output at the moment, the potential is still there for either/or to happen and especially later on in the month rather than 5-7 days away. The mid latitude high in the Atlantic at +138 is what I'm keeping my eye on. That is OUR big chance to be in the spotlight in 10-15 days time.