The watcher
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Posts posted by The watcher
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I'm not getting this at all. Signs point to lots of snow showers here in the northwest and net weather forecast shows snow showers but met office uk shows dry overnight mon and into Tuesday. ?! And bbc say light rain.
Not what their text forecast says. I don't use the 5 day local forecasts tbh, not as much time/effort put into them. Precipitation forecasts are better to look at 12-24 hours out and then a brief look at radar once in a while to nowcast,
Monday:
Bright with some sunshine and blustery showers. The showers most frequent in the north and turning to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Strong to gale force westerly winds. Maximum Temperature 6 °C.
Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:
Staying cold and windy on Tuesday with further wintry showers, dying out during Wednesday with winds easing down later. Dry, bright start to Thursday then cloudy with outbreaks of rain.
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Heavy snow showers tomorrow night blown to the east coast on very strong winds. Accumulations likely (low ground).
We should have a warning for tomorrow night. Could get bad.
-10 line into Donegal from a WNW source, crazy.
Would be plenty of showers in that flow, -10s stretching over 500 miles+ of ocean.
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Completely forget about the turn of the month, punish and smite me as you will.
Cold spell to begin, temps averaging out and month ending on a SW and milder period 4.4c
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Will probably be a frontal system and embedded troughs associated with that strong Northerly flow from Tuesday to Thursday (as the Low moves further West and then South. Could be an interesting period to watch out for snow wise.
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If we can get a Northerly (straight), then usually coasts North, West and East will get showers.
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MOD thread is tedious reading at the minute. We look to be in line for a cold spell of weather (including Scotland and Northern England) which could be the coldest of the winter, yet some deny there's cold coming???
The Model Output should consider ALL areas of the UK and Ireland, not just South and Eastern England.
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Not very good. Had one night of snowfall, about 2 inches that melted overnight. The rest was just sleety wet mess. Only 1 night got below 0c and cloud cover was consistent throughout. However, only a few miles away and higher regions saw 6 inches that lay for a good while. Snowfall this far West was interspersed and locale really made all the difference. The sea was my enemy in this instance, however, it did deliver the first snowflakes seen for just over 2 years.
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Not much wind here yet, but looks like getting very windy soon.
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Some colder uppers still in the mix so I think that's why we are seeing some wintery showers about. Pretty good for a WSW flow. Bodes well for any stronger Northerly flows we can get our hands on in the near future. (February)
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I'm glad of the milder weather for now too. Can't top my heating up for a couple weeks and just about to run dry, so good.
Anyone know what time it is?
It's whiskey time.
Had offers to play snooker for money tonight but had a night out planned, so making them wait.
Anyone any more ideas for the Ireland meetup? I'd like it to be a single night, at a time when nothing much is happening (ie holidays, etc), somewhere in the middle so an equal distance for those on each side of the border. Enniskillen could be a good shout.
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Er, Watcher, the last cold spell hasn't finished yet. It's snowing again in Four Winds. Very grey skies.
I know, but the coast is unlikely to see snowfall this late in the game as the mix in the uppers makes the attempts weaker for me. Alright for inland areas but a sleety mix here. Don't expect anything more for my area now basically (hopes reverse psychology works).
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Rain for me again today. Greenland high where art thou.
If any of you are having problems uploading pictures, email them to me and I'll post them for you.
Or, as a quick and easy guide, click on attachments in the more reply option, add them, then click on add to post beside the attachment.
P.S. New thread on Friday as we start the hunt again.
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2nd February at 4pm. Don't underestimate the pile.
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lying slush here again, must have had snow right to coast this morning.
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rain and sleet here all day. good to hear some exceptional falls not far away. Wonder if it'll change to snow here at all.
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not much here today, just the odd light grain shower and thawing of what little snow I got. Why did I have to move so close to the coast.
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whats radar looking like now, any letup?
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damn dongle has ran out, can't view radar. light to moderate snow now fnor a while, some big flakes mixed in.
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, u not get 6 inches last night>
that's why he's winking with his mouth open. haha
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Sky going orange/pinky colour, always a good sign.
No worries skywatcher, I'm not sure about the effects to the motion of vertical air in that case. I think it sinks and that is why he said it would suppress convective potential.
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Big moderate - heavy blob and convection getting deeper and covering a larger area. It does look interesting. Dec 2010 similar event?
Temps dropping like a stone now too with the more frequent and heavier graupel showers.
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Just maybe for Dublin area. Fingers crossed for you all.
It's still very snowy here in the suburbs though cars can now with care negotiate this side street, which was not possible yesterday.
Su Campu, you wrote earlier "With T850 cooling to -7 °C or lower later today streamer activity should increase over the Irish Sea, but it will be suppressed by divergent flow in the low-mid levels" At first sight this seems obvious but then I realised I didn't truly understand. Divergent flow from where and to where? How can you tell? Which chart/diagram gives this info? Sorry to keep asking (dumb) questions but trying to learn....
I believe he means that it will be the opposite effect to what a convergence zone has. Convergence zones help upward motion and aid in Thunderstorm development. Divergence, rather than air flowing inwards and converging, probably means air flowing outwards creating a sink/downward motion, so no deep convection. Shallow convection though still possible to mid levels I would assume.
Looked outside 2 minutes ago and it was wet and snowless, looked again just now, the place is white. Wee graupel shower again.
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Melting very quickly unfortunately - doesn't bode well for lying snow !
If it continues and gets heavier it will lie and freeze hopefully.
Snowydog: A streamer is when very cold upper air moves over a warmer body of water forcing convection to occur, much like the lake effect snow that occurs in the Great Lakes in America in winter but on a smaller and more localized scale.
Think of how a thunderstorm occurs on a warm hot sunny day, rising currents forcing tall cumulus clouds to bubble up, except, this time the heat source is the sea and the difference in temperature between it and colder air above causes the convection/instability.
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Yep, just started here too (behind flagship in beatrice) moderate-heavy graupel.
Ireland Regional Discussions 24th January 2013, 06z onwards
in Regional
Posted · Edited by The watcher
Its still the weekend, they are all out at the pub getting legless. It is Ireland after all.
Everyone will have their feet up in front of the warm fire no doubt.