The watcher
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Posts posted by The watcher
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I know, if you look at it long enough it looks like it has a life (of raising eyebrows) on its own.
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House work - isn't that what the wife is for?? (wonders why he is seperated smiley)
I am pretty confident that favoured spots will see some of the white stuff on Sunday
A wife....what's that? I live on my own in my wee 2 bed house, but going to be renting a room shortly so doing a bit of shuffling and decorating etc. Young ladies will get discount.
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I'm in the sleet area of that. Cursed
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I don't because I didn't wake til 2pm this afternoon and haven't done any house work. Plus, the whiskey puts me to sleep.
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I think your right Pomeroy and also we should know in the next 24hrs if we will see snow Sunday morning! Exciting times ahead!
It is indeed, pondering whether to stay up for the 00Z ECM now....did last night...sort of. I'll make my mind up after GFS 18Z.
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ECM much better for Ireland, we may all see something from that. Also liking the goings on to our NNW on Eastern and Central Greenland. Arctic high helping raise heights here and this could be something to look into longer term.
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216 on the ECM, Arctic High pointing its finger at us from the East of Greenland saying "You're next".
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WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW
Favorite bit about this chart. The 1045mb high over the Arctic looking like it's injecting heights into the slowly inflating Greenland area.
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GFS/UKMO somewhat better for Great Britain but poor for here dragging in south-westerlies as per Feb 2012. I really hope the ECM will deliver the goods later because I think we're seeing another one of the infamous winter disappointments. If it doesn't we may have to look to February for something substantial.
I have to agree, GFS isn't pretty for here. -5c line barely scratches the East coast of Ireland then off it goes back East. All the talk in the MOD thread of snow here and there is all mainland UK, and mainly the Eastern side. That's why most are still fine with the output and saying upgrade. We are in the same boat unless the High doesn't topple and joins with GL.
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My head is fried with all this uncertainty, I even dropped and smashed my coffee jar this morning. Have I woke up and smelt the coffee? Not yet.
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Can anyone remember if I signed up to the weather.ie discussion boards? I cannot remember if I did or not and didn't want to go on and make a second account if I had.Probably be under "The Watcher" aswell.
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I'd plump for Mild, although I don't have a bias. As a man who likes a flutter, playing the percentages is what it is all about. If I was a bookies I'd be placing odds in favor of cold.....It's like Ronnie O Sullivan playing Martin Gould at snooker, you'd expect him to win but if he's not on his game, Gould is capable of beating him.
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Well thats it, cold spell cancelled. News night just on covering tomorrows headlines in the daily rags, -15 snow for 3 or 4 weeks, nothing down for the cold spell now, kiss of death?
We all thought the same Jan, would certainly be a typical fare.
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GFS says this tonight:
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Suspect evolution from GFS to me, the shortwave should drop down with the Jet but doesn't, could be a case of GFS over egging the little Low. If it calls it correct however, we can no longer drag out the verification stats to prove it wrong. It really is a case of majorly wrong, or majorly right.
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ECM would see us not missing out at all....we'd all get a taste in the next 10 days. North and East coast most at risk but plenty of action possible in the South too with Lows diving to the South of Ireland. West probably driest, but even here has a chance of something too.
We'd have to be patient before forecasting any snowfall anyways, too far out to look at precipitation chances. It does look good though aslong as we see no correction East.
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Hey Watcher:
Will it snow on my plant-pot next Sunday at 5pm? BTW, my plant-pot is on the 2nd floor window ledge!!
I'll be taking a slash in your plant pot, it might freeze over.
Ensembles not so good for the 18z in the longer run, but plenty of time still to go. It's like groundhog day in here now, feels like it is taking forever for agreement on the models.
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Welcome new folks, starting to get rather busy in here now.
GFS 18Z moves everything West again, alot more areas at risk of some snow in 5 days time and the charts beyond that are astonishing to say the least. That HP just bashes up into Iceland/Greenland territory and everywhere gets plastered. That's more like it. Eyes down again for another 24 hours of runs to see if we get any consistency beyond day 5.
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Markok and Neiller, would you mind sticking a general idea of your locations in your profiles so we know whereabouts you are if you report any conditions? Thanks
Again, reason why I hate Easterlies can be seen this evening, GFS and UKMO give all the action to the SE/E....again.
Still can be corrected West but very close to a time were no changes will occur. Still, we have the High to our West in the picture still, things teetering on a knife edge for Ireland.
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GFS tonight I would consider a compromise for East UK and Western areas (including Ireland), they get their Scandi High, we get our Greenie. Although, we get cold from both.
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And here we are, all winter, screaming for a Greenie High or a Scandi one......you wait for a bus all day and 2 come at once, springs to mind.
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really?
I would say FI starts at 120hrs just now
Have you been playing with your spaghetti again?
Todays runs are an improvement for cold watchers compared to earlier yesterday.
As an IMBY perspective my interest for the moment is on the HP out West and the possibility of this moving up towards Greenland. An Easterly is always too risky for snow in Ireland, we are the last to get and the first to lose in all occasions.
The GFS and UKMO showed promise in regards to this but the ECM had too much energy S of Greenland and coming off the Eastern Seaboard. Still room for improvement on this as it is around days 7-10.
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Better charts today, especially in regards to where the HP to our West ends up. I thought it looked a bit odd yesterday with how far South it was with so little low heights to its N and LP to its West pushing up WAA towards Greenland, I blamed this on the lack of strength in the Low heights to its West. Today, the LP to the West strengthened a little and its much further North. Not too much though as to erode it.
Edit: ECM spoils my party with a shortwave South of Iceland squeezing in between.
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At the minute I wouldn't like to call anything, a run up of the models today/morning would be cooler in the long run but very messy, any cold severe enough for snow is just a quick skurmish with Central and Eastern parts of the UK days 5-7. Thereafter on GFS, back to what we had most of December. On ECM however:
A HP ridges in from the East at day 10, but the Atlantic looms again. Not very promising for us I'm afraid to say this morning. There's a reason why the MOD thread gets excited by an Easterly all the time. Most of them will get hit directly by it. Ireland however, rarely gets a severe Easterly spell that delivers. I don't think however that our chances are gone yet. The area of concern in regards to what happens with the HP to our immediate West/SW is at days 7-10, so this can still change quite a bit. Then we have beyond that, which as ever, is subject to any volume of change regarding the current circumstances.
Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion
in Regional
Posted · Edited by The watcher
An SSW is a sudden stratospheric warming. When a warming occurs (way up at 10mb in the strat, or even higher) it propagates down into lower levels and eventually the Troposphere. It is a relatively new technique in forecasting, but according to those in the know, when it occurs, a few weeks later the Polar Vortex begins to split/detiorate, pushing the colder air into lower latitudes.