The watcher

To be honest, I think lying snow is definitely possible, the minimas are below freezing tonight so surface temps during the morning will be pretty cold, and with cloud cover the sun will not get a chance to heat things up, nor will the cold escape. Thus snow already falling onto frozen surfaces will lye overnight or during the morning at most levels. The reason I don't think the East will be ruled out is because the band is moving West to East and therefore does not come directly from a Seatrack for us. Also the wind has an effect in wether snow will lye at Sea Level in the East, on this occasion winds are light SE to begin with so SST's have minimum to Nil effect. I don't know about you guys but Iam in the minuses tonight, the rain/sleet and snow is to approach during the early hours....so I don't really expect temperatures to get above 0c until the sun comes up, and even then it will be behind cloud cover, so temperatures will take that little longer to climb.

Im not being biased.......your up North anyway so your forecast will be somewhere in the middle. My forecast is for the whole of Ireland, the only relative matter that will determine precipitation type is West - East, further South aswell the 850hpa temps are higher so this will have a bearing on precipitation too. For you dice I'd be expecting a few cm's at least but this will dissapear come Sunday afternoon as it will in all areas.....it really wasn't going to be a super event like the BBC ramped it up to be.

Okay, heres my tuppence for tommorows Snowfall risk. 0600 Hours: Light snow falling in the West of Ireland and Ulster, spreading East and becoming moderate. 0900 Hours: Slight accumulations in the West, however Snow turning to Sleet or Rain during the morning and quickly thawing any accumulations here..The East will see moderate snow with accumulations of 2-5cm, possibly 10cm in local areas. 1200 Hours: Snow will have turned wet or to sleet and will be lighter in Eastern areas, accumulations will begin to thaw although slowly until the sun comes out. Any precipitation will largely clear leaving 10cm on hills with 2-5cm (quickly thawing) at lower levels. All in all it is going to be an alright event, though not as disruptive as Wednesday and Thursdays snow. In some locations the precipitation will remain as snow if a good covering of 5cm + remains. This is because the DP's, and Temps are the only factors bringing the wetter snow and sleet, thus with a good snowcover you will keep the colder temps and DP's. My warning: Moderate falls of snow during Sunday Morning will leave accumulations of 2-5cm + at lower levels in Eastern Countys, this will make driving difficult. However things should clear from midday onwards.

Currently precipitation rates for Sundays rain band stand at a mere maximum of 1.5mm per hour. So precipitation will be light. Current temp suggestions (-4 850hpa, DAM 524, DP's Max 1c, Air temps 1-2c) would suggest Sleet and Snow. Snow mainly at first, turning to Sleet near the end of the band. These are subject to change, but as it stands I really don't see a huge or widespread risk for Sunday night into Monday. I don't know where BBC are getting there forecast from but if they are forecasting heavy snow or disruption they must know something I don't.

Well, must have been snow from the showers this morning, but my temps are way too high for it to lye and its just another damp squib here. Currently 2.9c and rising. Temps today for me should reach around 3.5c max. It looks to me like a small streamer is developing because of a long sea track from Western Scotland SW towards South Antrim and county Down. Will be interesting to see if this does continue. If we can just have a very sharp heavy fall this may well reduce ground temps enough to let the snow lye. Another interesting day on the cards. Its funny you should mention the Alt Forecast, I forecast this cold spell in it, however my timing in the Christmas forecasts was innacurate but the overall trend was there, this cold spell I had forecasted on the button though. I will just update myself on model output this morning and give you's an update of Sunday nights situation.

Sundays risk is tight, Meto and BBC going for light rain turning heavier overnight and falling as Snow in places. Its a very tight call to make, some expect the precipitation to be mainly light, others expect it to be heavy. Also there is a mild sector to keep an eye on, although recent model runs indicate this to be receeding Southwards in new output thus not impacting on our precipitation. I'd give it a 60% risk of disruptive snowfall Sunday Night into Monday morning, this is why Meto have not released warnings or advisories yet, they only seem to release advisorys when confident (ie 70% +), or indeed as a Nowcast.

Woke up to a dusting of graupel this morning though its readily melting in the morning sun......signs are good for heavy snow showers throughout the day being quite widespread so I'd expect more posts of further snowfall from people.

I think hit and miss really sums up the snowfall last night and today...areas inland even only a few miles from the sea had a nice covering, hils above around 200m got plastered. Areas close to the sea or at sea level seen snowfall for 18hours but ground temps just a tad too high for lying snow, which ment that the lighter precip during the early hours was not really in our favour. However it has been a GREAT time so far....I have practically been stuck to the window for any signs of the snowfall lying, but it melted too rapidly. Tommorow and overnight tonight will see places having a little topup from Showers that drift in on the stiff NE breeze, mostly confined to the North and NorthEast...but tommorow (according to Netweather) the showers becoming heavy, widespread and frequent and falling mainly as snow. This week will bring more than enough chances for some snowfall so Im quite sure that thoughs who did not see any lying snow last night or today will see some by the end of this week.

If you say it again I'll believe you . I've got a little guitar if that'll do the job, can play some James Blunt for you lol!

I wouldn't worry mate, its mostly wet snow and I have none lying in my location, just a damp squib with fairly moderate spells of snow (though small and light flakes).

Im sceptical about that event. The precipitation is ment to be light according to Netweather pros its a dieing front moving in from the West Saturday night.

Its still snowing in Bangor.....though still not lying....its been snowing all night and day here on and off with heavier bursts at times.

Snow events less likely, erm.....what are we in now??? Oh yeah a 5 day snow and wintry spell....duh! I think he should choose his timing carefully to make a statement like that, aying it during a winter cold spell that looks set to last for a while doesn't make sense...he should wait til Summer.

lol, me and Snowjon must be the only ones missing out on Local falls, curses. Why oh why must I live in a crappy housing estate near the sea, I'd rather live in Craigantlet, or the Mournes lol! *shakes fist at the snow gods*

OMG, Craigantlet is blasted lol.......damn, wish I still had the Motorbike, I'd be heading up for a nosey! grrr!

Jon, its snowing up here in Kilcooley, although none lying the ground is absolutely drenched. I suspect it has had a covering and melted after, but still in the heavier bursts it manages to lye for a few minutes before melting. Im in Kilcooley so I've a little bit of height about me, 59m asl. Temperature dropping though, has dropped 0.5c in last 30 minutes. Last night it dropped to 0.4c by 10pm then started to rise again as the rain band approached, I think thats what caused no lying snow this time around close but no cigar.

I dunno MS, the BBC keeps the snow over us up until 3pm tommorow afternoon and there are weather warnings from Netweather aswell, then with the sun setting and skies clearing, temps dropping and freezing any snow cover. Also the precip will probably intensify later on tonight, especially for Eastern areas.

Well its all good to compare, but the significance of an extremely cold winter and that of a mild and zonal one would place this winter in the good books......its easy to say this winter is not up there with the great winters in terms of snow, but it has been on the right track and not the usual winter that has come to pass of late, so comparing not only to the best, but also to the worst is better to do. :lol: I've been around since 1985 and I can definitely remember better, but I have to say this winter so far has been close to the mark in terms of cold, not snowfall...and definitely does not feel like it has been a so called "even larger teapot". It has been like an average winter good 70's/80/s winter in terms of CET etc.

Are you in Belfast or Antrim town tonight?

Exaclty John...I had to refrain myself from making a big angry post to those who seem Emo like in regards to lack of snowfall....this year has been great IMO, and no amount of childish whinging will change my point of view, but to deceive people and say this winter has been c-rap is just silly. For snow it has been an average winter overall, for cold it is slowly progressing towards a cold-very cold winter. The glass is indeed half full and may still be filled more since we have a few weeks of winter yet.

Very good so far in regards to CET and temperature values, although snowfall has been below average I'd say....but we can't have it all. I see some people have already expressed their disgust *looks above*.....Im not, I can handle dissapointment, snow ain't the be and end all of the world, and usually every year I see some kind of cover, but none this year so far.

I'd say around 2-5cm for your area......patience, the heavier band is rifling around to your North, but don't expect it to last long, its only a thin strip around 20-30 miles wide.

The heavier precipitation is moderate falls/outburts, a bit showery in nature....it should reach coleraine within the next couple of hours, although I would expect up North to miss out on the heaviest snow.....because the colder air undercuts more as the band slows and remains over the Central and Southern NI and Central Ireland. I don't think I'll have any rain from this, temps already 0.5c after a max of 5c this afternoon. There are a few other factors that will intensify the band over Eastern areas better.....our Irish sea waters are slightly warmer than North coast and Atlantic ocean waters, this will give the rain band some energy, the hills in Antrim and Down, and of course the cold air undercutting.

according to weather alerts, the precipitation intensifies behind the main light band, also tommorow am it will sit over belfast for most of the day and intensify according to netweather alerts.....so basically it is a weak cold front which gathers strength as the colder air undercuts more, thus it will intensify as it moves South, that is why it begins light and gets heavier.... , actually it is good that the colder air has dug quickly in behind, this means the band is already increasing in intensity, so hopefully by the time it reaches here it'll be mostly heavy precip rather than the larger area of light precip during the beginning.

not sure how much you'll get dice, but the precipitation should be about to clip where you are so give us a heads up on its intensity and we can tell you how much to expect.