The watcher

Im optimistic now, because our local forecast, Sky News, BBC aswell are all making us dry sunday, monday with rain/sleet tuesday....only Isolated light snow showers at best according to the TV forecasts and only my County (Down) has a weather advisory by Meto for Tuesday. Things are looking okay via the netweather charts and models but it is concerning when our own and other professional weather experts decide not to see that possibilitys. I for one am thinking a good convective are will setup in the Irish Sea Monday morning, not to mention the more persistant band Tuesday to be Snow albeit quite wet. *Prays they are wrong* Give me snow!

12z looking fantastic still although not as good as the 06z did for us. Snow, Snow, SNOW....currently 80% Sunday and 100% Monday for my location via Netweather Indications and better still, no sign of a return to any uppers above-5c through most/the whole run AGAIN. Things are tantalizingly close now,we are almost set for a HUGE Ireland snow event.

Well judging by current indications I'd say a below/well below average month is on the cards, therefore 2.4c for me.

The latest GFS run puts the whole of Ireland under -5uppers and less for the whole of the Run. Although there is criticism of the Iberia LP from Southern England folk, this new output increases our chances even more because of the ESE tilt in the HP which gives a longer sea track for the cold uppers thus inducing longer and bigger convective showers. As I said yesterday the HP could only be shifted North, the latest run can either shift it further North or back South again to a maximum of where it has been for the last 2 days. What we want to see is the LP to the South stay where it is at the moment and then after the cold pool drift into the med which is of great possibility because the jet to its South will pull it there. So far so good, lets just hope the LP does not lose heights as it is or the HP will be pushed further North and it will become more SE/SSE flow. 3 things we wish to see (in regards to the LP): 1: The LP remain where it is and keep its depth 2: The LP receed East and become deeper. 3: The LP move (slightly) West and lose depth. Any of these 3 in subsequent model runs keeps us in the firing line.

Yes, lookng brilliant now, and the best bit, the High cannot sink any further South than it already is so it can only go North between now and Sunday meaning it can only get colder for us in any HP movement. Can't wait to see tommorows outputs. Off to bed, see ya's all later.

Yes Eagle, quite remarkable risk now I'd think.....not only South East Ireland but the Whole Eastern seaboard of Ireland (North and South) it's exactly like the setup we had in January last year. 120hrs but I don't think it will differ much from this give or take a degree or two in the uppers. I would not be surprised to see the uppers actually be -12 in this scenario becuase the upper air is transferring very quicklyand isn't getting much time to modify.

Whats everyones take on this, do you think it will suffice, any snow? My take: The uppers have got lower as we have approached and I would not be surprised if even lower uppers come off. Snow is a BIG potential with the Irish Sea Streamer and Lake effect in Easterlies, especially with -8 or below uppers.

Been snowing moderately since I awoke, now a layer of slush on all surfaces. Need a heavy burst to get a covering started.

Moderate snow falling here from 5pm.....its on and off every 5 minutes, just need a heavier burst to get the covering started.

Good luck Kip, have a blast.....oh and if you ever miss the site of us you can come back and visit us with some general reports from wherever your heading.

Ive confirmed with CIDK by PM just awaiting accomodation confirmation. At the moment I look to be the youngest coming down hehe. Look forward to meeting one and all myself.

Picturesque wow. amazing photos. All this cracking up about no snow we are doing and yet without even a centimetre it looks as it would in a winter wonderland. Get some more if you can matey....well worth the look.

Any update on the meet yet?....getting close now so was wondering if any organising had been done. Oh and when you can CIDK give me the details on the accomodation you had in mind. Cheers Chris

Clear enough audio and video wise. A=10 V=9

The bars indicate inHg (you can see the reading on left) which is inches of mercury, its a formula used to calculate the change in pressure by how mercury expands and shrinks (ie +0.06 inches = +2hPa. The readings on the opposite side depict hPa (Hectopascals), which is basically pressure. The bars therefore show the pattern in which Pressure has changed in the last 12 hours.

I have the Super Weather Station too lol. I set my sensor somewhere dry with full rain protection but with the wind able to get at it from all directions. The bars indicate inHg (you can see the reading on left) which is inches of mercury, its a formula used to calculate the change in pressure by how mercury expands and shrinks (ie +0.06 inches = +2hPa. The readings on the opposite side depict hPa (Hectopascals), which is basically pressure. The bars therefore show the pattern in which Pressure has changed in the last 12 hours. I think thats as best a description I can give you, I'm almost sure its correct but having only researched it myself Iam not 100% sure.

I got one of these too, mines all set up. You don't need to use your temp probe unless we are in extreme temp values -20c and below or +30c and above, so I just place my little sensor box in a dry place with full exposure to wind, thus my temperature reading gives a small influence on wind too. Have to say though the pressure reading is confusing in that if the outside sensor only gives Temperature readings then where is the Pressure reading taken from, and how does the conditions change if no real pressure reading is taken. The humidity reading is a bummer too, it only gives indoor humidity rather than outdoor.

3.9, 3.9c

Very cold start to the night here Temperature: -0.4c Humidity: 46% Pressure: 1033 (steady) Conditions: Partly Cloudy (risk of light snow according to my Weather station)

Partly Cloudy 6.4c 1037mb and rising 51% humidity

3.9c here we come

So far his forecast has mostly been wrong, so don't take anything he says as a forecast, just a stab in the dark.

Lol, it is a bit silly really that he continues to produce such silly forecasts so long out. One can only hope he will use his abilitys for reliability and not sillibility.

Current Observations (own weather station) Cloudy 8.1c dropping (although not sure my temperature reading is correct until I get the sensor used to outside readings.) Pressure 1036 steady Humidity 48% Current Observation (Nearest Professional Station, Belfast 10 miles away) Cloudy Relative Humidity (%): 87, Pressure (mB): 1037, Rising, Visibility: Moderate Temperature: 8c

Well predicted by suffolkboy, a raw Easterly around Christmas ....though his CET quess I'd say is a tad too high.