stewfox

Why not it's an output model thread ? Yes most prefer cold/ snow in winter. The fact we have this excitement in the 1st month of winter is good.

But folk focus on individual bad runs such as the GFS last night. At least this year's run to Christmas has model interest for cold fans. GFS 18 waited with interest. Going to be interesting few days.

At Prague Airport a small winter fix

I was in krakow 2008 a bit of snow. In zakopane a few thousand feet up picture post card of snow

Any re excursions in Prague where you might see snow ?

Off to Prague tomorrow for Christmas markets and my fix of snow and its 6c to 9c

Folks 4 Jan 1963 added up to 23 (ie 4 + 1 + 9 + 6 + 3 = 23 Jan 15 2024 also adds up to 23. Coincidence maybe but I'd bet my hat to see the same weather outcome on the 15 Jan 2024

In mid August nobody picked up the hot spell in early mid September. Within a 10 day window the signal to trend to much warmer was there from GFS ,ECM etc. I don't see any consistent trend to colder post day 10. "Possibility" is the best fence sitting the Met can do. But model watching is so enjoyable as often day 10 is FI and its early December folks not end of February.

People often say why haven't the Met talked about the potential colder out looks in FI ? Imagine the back lash if thousands cancelled Christmas plans. One week is enough for them in the public domain.

Dear Santa, My Christmas request is fairly simple. I don't need another car cleaning kit. I need snow on the ground over Christmas period but no travel disruptions I know it's FI but no delays on M40 and M25 when i travel to my sisters on Christmas eve. I have the attached what I have in mind like March 1995 in Oregan

That's 6 days before the GFS charts that were posted. Not comparing like for like

5c and cold rain ,wonderful not

The "Glad you got some" said through gritted teeth today. Just 3 days of a frozen water butt ,this cold snap

Amazing 12 miles north of me (Coventry) which had settling snow here in Napton at 500 feet nothing. No snowman for me just 3 days of a frozen water butt and yes I am 58.

It's definitely rain now and I'm at 500 feet. The mixing of the air is interesting

Sleet here i guess soon be rain but at 500ft ever hopeful

12 miles south of Coventry at 500ft. Nothing here yet

Definitely

Because in the 7 day range there pretty good. All we are seeing from the models at the moment is the timing of the breakdown of the cold. Which differs slightly.

Day 2

No issues ,so if they don't come might need to reconsider your Christmas presents?

Too right clear blue skies here. Putting a old Christmas mug on a frozen water Butt makes a change . How long will it last ?

Always read your posts with interest. One of the first to suggest the low may not hit the UK at all last Sunday. Also suggesting on 21 November Atlantic driven weather may return early mid December. When some were still looking at a Dec 2010 comparison. Are we in a situation where on a macro scale we can predict trends for the next 3 weeks ? However on the micro scale things may pop up. ? This cold snap did make many consider the validity of the background signals,probably due to lack of understanding.

Nope

This thin green line has been mentioned a few times . Some suggestioning it has no support. Well it has mine. NH profile not your standard default at the moment.