wysiwyg

Yeah that band certainly is being stubborn. I also noticed there are more small bands cropping up in front of and behind the main block of precip over N Wales

I honestly think it will. My concern is how long it hangs around and then drifts off back south

Seemed to start as rain for most of SW Wales and England and then readily turned to sleet then snow

Definitely seeing a rotation now on the main band of precip. Looks like the pivot point is somewhere around Dublin. This is really going to be knife edge stuff as to how far N this whole band gets!!

I'm fairly confident that it's warm air from the low pressure system being forced ahead of the main front by the rather stiff SEly breeze. I think the correct term is instability.

Yes it seems to be repeatedly getting "pepped up" as the main front moves in. Just speculating based on a combination of gut feeling and a very limited knowledge of synoptics but: it might be possible that the warming effect of that earlier band may just be enough to allow the main band to encroach further east - that is what seems to happen on the 00Z GFS. I might be completely wrong but hey!

Nope still on the band that preceeded the main band that's currently still coming in over Wales just now!

As things stand the GFS has resolutely stood out on its own wrt what the METO and the local high res models are saying. So my head says they are right and the GFS is somehow missing a trick. However the GFS has so far got the last few hours spot on with regards to the bonus snow and the progression so far of the main front over Wales. Still all to play for. We'll know better in a few hours if we see the front stall and begin to rotate I guess!

I actually think it's great that you stick to your guns and say what you see. At the end of the day there are no prizes for being right it's just a whole lot easier when folk aren't having mood swings separated by 5 minutes lol GFS sticking to its guns so far!

There are some very enthusiastic posters in this regional thread but there is just a little to much impatience to go with it from some members leading to a rollercoaster at times. It must be very confusing for casual members dropping in for a quick update! It's like game on one minute then game over two pages and 5 minutes later when some site or other updates its output. Highly entertaining but also very confusing

There will be some head scratching going on in Exeter if the 0Z GFS refuses to back down!

Still refusing to give up here too. Very light though now. Oh well I should really sleep but might as well wait for the 0Z now lol

Yes I think we're seeing that in my area too just now - I'm at around 70M but the members a few miles down the road in Leyland are lower and more urbanised. I'm seeing a cm or so on the grass and good piles (mini-drifts) but down the road it's struggling to stick at all even though they've essentially had the same snowfall. It definitely felt relatively warmer too when the snow started but it's feeling bitterly cold again now.

That's very wierd - I'm only up the road from you on Buckshaw Village and it's exactly the opposite. The gritted paths are wet but largely snow free but the grass and soil has a decent covering. Can still see grass through it but I'm thinking about a cm might have fallen - there's also a fair few corners with "mini drifts"

Yes the current band is now suddenly dying a death as it was always likely too. In my simple understanding it was a large "bubble" of warm air that broke free from the main low out to the west and floated up over the cold air on the strengthening breeze. It will have held a finite amount of moisture and any increased temperature will have now mixed out with the colder block bringing an end to the fun and games for now - it's been a fascinating day of weather and model watching!

Yes i understand where you're coming from and in terms of the weather now and for the next 36 hours or so I think we have two firmly drawn opinions - one from the METO (and the BBC with some lag and spin) and the other based on the short term GFS which stubbornly wants to push the whole affair further North and East. As you rightly say it's in the lap of the weather gods and as of now only the radar, ones window and reports from other forum members will be truly reliable. I'm sitting in the GFS camp as I'm an eternal optimist. Those who sit in the other camp are very wisely managing their expectations. If I'm wrong I will be disappointed but I wont lose any sleep - if i'm right then we all win

I hear what you're saying but I have to agree with the previous poster's views of the BBC's approach to weather presentation; i) they have a green/pro-global warming agenda ii) they have a remit to report and entertain the 95% of the licence paying population who want the warm fuzzy feeling of good news in these times of economic gloom iii) they get their data direct from the METO but in my experience the Beeb's forecasts rarely (if ever!) coincide with the METO forecasts. Just my £0.02 worth but I personally have no confidence in the BBC's shoddy weather presentation. IMO they are one step away from the sensationalist tabloids such as the Telegraph when it comes to weather reporting.

Yes that TAF makes good reading for the south of the region from midday onwards. I'd say they aren't buying wholly into the METO solution and considering very seriously the relatively consistent GFS in the short term

Snow perked up again here now - still only light to moderate but good covering away from gritted paths

It won't dissolve, however it might just stall in the wrong place to give any snowfall further N and E

Don't lose heart yet mate. The fact that they have kept their warnings in place means that they have been thrown a massive curve ball by the GFS refusing to back down from its more northerly progression - they are covering their rear end! It could still go either way IMO!

Fair enough but the 18Z is looking a little better than 2-5cm at the moment even for areas to the north - I think the true confusion arises because the warnings don't reflect what the computer generated METO 5 dayers are showing - add in the blatent incompetence of the BBC and you have the confusion we're seeing now - Here's hoping it verifies as per GFS - cheers Wysi

Hehe - no probs mate. you don't have to be mad to post here but it helps Touch and go for your area although the latest GFS models are determined to forecast snow. The big confusion is arising currently because the UK Met Office is sticking to it's earlier forecast that shows very little or no snow for a region N and E of Merseyside. Sorry to sit on the fence but in these volatile and unusual weather paterns its usually a case of wait and see what is happening through your best forecasting tool - i.e. your window!! Welcome to NetWeather!

BT true - the GFS and METO are the same for your area. But the GFS is determined to push the precip much further North than the METO. Sorry to keep picking on your posts but I think some north south balance is needed here - cheers matey

The whole NW would be plastered in the stuff if the 18Z verified - are you sure you're looking at the latest 18Z run?