wysiwyg

YAY! A fellow ramper!!

I suspect the lack of settling in some areas is due to the wind strength. There will be a hidden corner somewhere close with a pile of the stuff!

There could be a million answers to that but IMO - netweather is a commercial organisation that gets paid to get it right and the BBC is an entertainment organisation who's remit is to give the 95% of the nation that don't want disruptive snow a warm fuzzy feeling!!

Main band of ppn for tomorrow is currently pushing in over Southern Ireland. Looks quite active at the moment!

The current band is caused by the instability where the two competing air masses (warm to the W and cold to the E) are starting to mix together as the warm air tries to push into the cold air - this was mentioned on the NetWeather forecast yesterday i think

Woah!! 2000+ users online

Yep bin bags to the rescue if you get caught sledgeless and it snows!!

Light to moderate fall of fine snow/graupul here now. It suggests instability in the air ahead of the main front forecast tomorrow. Any advance falls can only be good for those areas getting snow tomorrow - even less chance of it melting as it hits the ground. A fair chilly breeze out there too now. I realise there is always scope for disappointment in this region but I am still confident of a reasonable event for most of the NW region tomorrow. If it doesn't come off then so what! It's hardly the end of the world.

genius!!

Our friend seems to have appointed himself as today's resident "Doom and Gloom" merchant here in the NW forums

the SEly component in this set up is caused by cold air undercutting the warm air trying to feed in off the atlantic. A SEly wind will only favour East of the Pennines if it originates from a cold continental Europe and brings convective snow from the N Sea. the precipitation in friday's set-up will come from the moist air out west being forced up and over the cold air currently over the UK. Where this occurs cold air will rush NWwards to fill the gap left by the less dense warm air - hence the SEly wind - the bigger the temperature difference between the two air masses, the stronger the wind.

To be fair the GFS has more or less stuck to its guns WRT where and how Friday's low is positioned and then subsequently slides South. The only real variation was in the most recent 0Z that had the whole thing a little further south and west. 6Z and 12Z have pretty much kept the whole of the NW under a threat of snow for Friday and now it seams that some snow tonight (albeit light and patchy) is possible for the region. The latest UKMET 12Z is still pretty much in line with it's forecasts earlier in the day which put the heaviest snow through Wales and the W Midlands but still snow for most of the NW at some point on Friday. The only thing puzzling me is that the regional METO website forecasts seem at odds with the latest UKMET model output. I guess the sites that carry the model data publish it much faster than the METO do.

This one now I think looking at the title

There's a new thread apparently

Interestingly the 12Z GFS further out seems to be getting its head round the idea that this cold block is not going anywhere in the near future. Up to now we've had successive GFS runs predicting a breakdown at around T+120. Already out to T+180 and no real sign of the atlantic returning

It's radar data so it's already verified in its current place - just need it to keep its intensity and head east

A few grains here at the moment but nothing to write home about

Yes I feel a ramp coming on!!

Hey Coast Based on my last few posts - the pub I think! I think you know I only come out when there is enough pink on the charts to guarantee my wig will sparkle in the snow!!

Looks like that current band is making good progress NE. Seems to be fragmenting a little north of where you are but if the latest GFS is right there should be some snowfall for most southern parts of the region this evening

Yes let's hope it's right and the METO models pick up on the same trend!

To be honest BT it is completely at odds with the current METO output. As you rightly say though - expect upgrades - if (and only if) the same solid daytime data factors into the UKMET global and local hi-res models and produces a similar output - here's hoping the GFS is on the right track and the METO follows suit!!

Be interesting to see how it compares with the METO model and how soon (if) they revise their forecast again!

Jeez that 12Z is a massive upgrade compared to the 0Z and 6Z runs - just shows how flippy floppy these darn NWP models are - give them a volatile situation to deal with and they go haywire!!!!