wysiwyg

12Z GFS is pretty much as the 6Z was out to 24 hours - definitely at odds with the current METO thinking! Some chance of snow for later this evening too by the looks of things.

Hence the newly purchased sledges to be used as riot shields to protect against spat out dummies and toys being hurled out of prams!!!

SEly is no good for convective snow coming from the East. This set up brings the snow from the west and creates SEly winds where the warm and cold mix Th big question is how far east this mixing will progress!

12Z GFS Just starting on WetNether!

90% of the population don't want this type of disruptive weather - the BBC caters for the majority not us snow junkies!!

Yes but cover your head with the sledge you just bought!

Which site is usually first out of the blocks with the GFS? I know that it doesn't start to roll on NetWeather until about 15.30 I'm guessing Meteociel??

I feel your pain too! No matter how many billion TeraFLOPS we throw at this problem, the weather will do what the weather will do!

Pretty much sums up the current display on the METO website.

They get their data from there but like all media organisations they tweek it to suit their own needs and agendas

I'm near you and it looks like much less snow than has been shown on previous model runs for Friday.

Yes a lot of disappointment right now. Not sure where you are in the north west but in my experience no snow event is ever "nailed on" until it actually happens in this region. The models are used a s a tool by organisations that have a duty to warn the public and commercial organisations about the onset of severe disruptive weather. My feeling is that the models tend to overplay stuff a few days out to give advanced warnings a chance. The fact that we have access to them does not mean that they are there for the benefit of us snow junkies looking for our next fix of sledging.

Yes I agree with you - buit I would still say it's virtually impossible for them to call this 24 hrs out. Yes they have access to data and modelling that we don't but with the high winds and large differences between the cold block over the country and the mild moist air out west there is a lot of energy bottled up and the final outcome could still change. (maybe god forbid even for the worse lol)

That graphic looks suspect to me - most of the southern half of the NW region under orange. I think locally it 's down to nowcasting. Still likely to be a noteable event but less of the NW now in the severe regions. We should probably bear in mind that the Met Office can and do get things wrong particularly when the prevailing conditions are so difficult to call at short to medium range. The Dec 2010 event was only picked up a few hours before it happened. Who would be a weather forecaster?

Maybe everyone's a bit gobsmacked.

Yes. I'll stick my neck out and say at this stage it's more about "how much" than "if"!

Agreed. It's the DAM line that has little influence in this type of setup. The key to snow is the warm, moist air being forced up over the cold air. As this moist air cools it forms precip. that needs to stay frozen as it drops through the final couple of kilometres to the ground.

I think there are odd occasions when these charts need to be viewed with a little scepticism with regards to type of precipitation. Maybe 10% of the time and I believe this is one of them. The models use a fairly standard algorithm to predict snow that takes into account modelled values of T850, ground temp, thicknesses, dew point, theta-W (wet bulb temp), precip rate etc etc. If one of these parameters is not conducive to snow the map will invariably show rain or sleet. Given the embedded surface cold and the low ground temps I think that anything that does fall in the NW tomorrow will be snow. The only real issue imo is has that map got the precip placement and amounts right. The NAE seems pretty good short term, we have support from the UKMO (fax and models to a degree) and the 12Z GFS also pushes the precip further north again - here's hoping!

Morning All -14 on a personal station a couple of miles away from me was the min here last night. It's currently -9 ouch! Beautiful day again - clear skies, hardly any wind and crisp underfoot. Amazing spell of weather!

I dont think there will be a football match there even in the middle of July tbh! :lol:

Morning Everyone Nice to see a few more cms here and there overnight. Amazing scenes outside - hardly a breath of wind and the snow from yesterday has stayed stuck to the trees and it all looks absolutely beautiful. Here's hoping for a few more rogue shower top-ups from the NE during today.

Had some on 23 Dec 09 from the band that moved through the NW at around 11.30pm - eerily impressive. First time I have ever seen it.

It's good fun in a wheelchair - mega tail-slides. Downside is it is bloomin cold on the old hands! :lol:

I'd love to be wrong but I think the NErly flow is just a bit too slack at the moment. The Pennines are just smashing those showers into nothing right now. I'm hoping that tomorrow when the LP moves out of the way further south and the sun gets to work on the North Sea that we stand a better chance of one or two making the distance over the Pennines. If conditions are good we may see a decent streamer setting up off the NS but the eventual places affected will be a rather hit and miss affair. Either way there will be some beautifully cold, crisp, sunny spells that will make today's lying snow look fantastic.

It's 3 to the West of Abingdon and 0 for Abingdon I think