wysiwyg

Fabulous loving the panoramic shot! Something in the MOD thread about it being a glitch?

Indeed. I'm thinking that with the relatively calm surface winds and lying snow that there is still some inversion going on even after the sun has risen. I may be wrong but I can't think of any other explaination

Hehe - if you think the Irish Sea is a nuisance - just look at how much the North Sea is modifying those N Scotland ground temps! As soon as you move away from the coast I would imagine that most of the sheltered glens in the highlands are seeing negative double figure temperatures. I shudder to think what the temperature is like at 3000 feet plus with a further temperature drop of approximatel 2oC per thousand feet!!

Morning All I wouldn't get too upset just at the moment with regards to this "warm sector" if you look at the charts posted earlier by James, the GFS is showing the warmer air as -5 to -6 850hpa nudging into -8 to -9 850hpa. Intensity of any precipitation will also help to tip the balance toward snow as will the fact that the main front hits the NW well after the surface temperatures will have started falling again. Anything that does fall that is not rain will probably settle. Fax chart for 00Z Tuesday still showing the occlusion point well out in the Irish Sea - so all looking good at the moment IMO.

PS think you might need to resize the photos before you attach them - there is somewhere in your settings/control panel thing where you can manage your attachments I think.

Hehe no worries mate was up in Tockholes on Monday (thanks to the A674 being temporarily closed) and there was still a fair bit of snow there then. With yesterday's and today's top-ups it looks fantastic! Great pics! BTW I just noticed there is a gallery feature on the main part of the forum. I have a few from before Christmas - might just slot them there! http://forum.netweat...ts&do=sc&cat=76

Spurry, if you use the full editor you can attach pictures just below the text box where you type your message.

Well I was actually referring to the regional forecasters I think regardless of who employs the national forecasters, the BBC powers that be will have the final say as to what shows up on the screens! Yes although I personally can't see there being much activity left on it by the time it reaches the NW.

Yep as I predicted earlier - wrt the BBC the Met Office must tear their hair out at some of the spin that the BBC put on their forecasts. Although to be fair the BBC tailor their forecasts towards the larger population areas and major travel routes - I guess they don't really care that much about folk who live out in the sticks on higher ground to the East.

Having posted that fax chart I am anticipating the next update for 00z on Tuesday to forecast this event as purely a cold front (based on the extended outlook on the countryfile forecast) - a lot can change even at <48hrs but looking more and more promising for some snow further west on Tuesday.

About 5 miles south of Preston - virtually next to the M6. 10 miles inland from the coast just North of Southport if you head due west With respect James I think we want the occlusion over us as this is the point where the warmer air has effectively been lifted off the ground by the colder air. Bear in mind that the fronts drawn on the chart represent the conditions at roughly sea level so the killer for snow is effectively the "wedge" of warm air that sits between the warm front and the cold front. Once it becomes occluded it means that the warm moist air has to drop its precipitation through a layer of cold air. Yeah I think I am on the border for marginality and the cold spell before christmas just nudged the right side for my area for snow, also had a fair bit of luck in terms of where the streamers tracked in that some areas to the north and south of us saw much less snow.

I have to disagree with that - 8 inches of snow here before christmas @ 74m asl. Hardly high ground Temperatures struggling around the 2-3 degrees max mark by day and hitting mins of -2 to -3 by night. Lying snow from 17th - 28th Dec. Fax output for midnight monday shows the occlusion tracking through the Irish Sea - anything falling east of the occlusion point will more than likely be snow apart from a very narrow band around coastal areas (2-3km) where intensity will dictate the difference between snow and sleet.

I'll stick my neck out and say, based on the current fax output, the only issue for higher ground and more easterly parts of the region is the amount of precipitation associated with the front when it gets to your location

I think from HotCuppa's perspective the Irish Sea is a major modifying influence in coastal regions around the NW. However, I still believe that yesterday's marginality was far more to do with warm air advection (WAA) from the warmer, higher pressure air mass to our NW over Greenland. Before christmas the cold air masses that passed from north to south had a lot of kinetic energy associated with them, thus preventing much WAA. Yesterday's troughs were much slacker affairs that tracked close enough to the West to allow significant mixing of warmer air thus increasing the tendancy for the whole event to be the wrong side of marginal for low ground and especially coastal regions. Other factors that may effect marginality near the coast are i) tidal influences locally modifying the surface wind strength and direction and ii) warm water up-welling caused by rivers such as the Mersey, Ribble etc dumping icy cold meltwater into the sea and causing disturbances in the thermocline further out to sea. Minor influences not seen further inland but critical towards the coast where they make the difference between rain and snow.

Haven't a clue what you guys are on about!

Yeah it can be a twitchy little section with reduced grip - I had a moment on that very section last week, made worse by the fact that a moron in a 4WD who thought he was invincible was hurtling up the hill in the middle of the road lol.

Isn't it just beautiful! Chris I envy you being up the top of Winter Hill just now (BTW if you could get the Lotus up there surely the road to Belmont would be a doddle! )

Sorry V - I've been on holiday!

Sorry Mods - I laughed as well! Sorry Edit: Sorry Optimus Prime

Well earlier today when I went for a walk it was still looking white, not sure if that was from before christmas or topped up today. Unfortunately, I cant see it from my house anymore as someone built a block of flats in front of it :o. (and it's dark lol )

Whilst the Irish Sea undoubtedly has an effect on snowfall potential in scenarios such as we had this afternoon, the key difference for me was the fact that warm air was dragged eastwards and mixed with the cold feed as the low moved south. In simple terms we had HP out to our NW circulating relatively warm air. Airmasses generally migrate such that HP air will move to "fill" LP areas and as a result of this we had warm air mixed in. The low over the UK was effectively higher pressure (~1010mb) than the LP sat off our SW (~996mb) and so was heading South to fill that area. It's marginal at the best of times here so inevitably coasts and western low-lying areas of Cumbria, Lancashire, Merseyside and Cheshire are always going to be on the wrong side of marginal in this type of setup. Before christmas, as HotCuppa already described, we had a much more agressive southerly plunge of cold that meant there was less mixing of the warm air out to the west. Looking here ( ) we would appear to have around 7oC in the Irish Sea with some cooler water close to the Lancashire coast. If we can get a more active cold feed from the NW without too much modified air from out west in the coming days there is still a good chance of more snow. The shortwave modelled by the GFS for Tuesday, followed by the active NErly feed behind it may prove to be better than today. However, at this range the models are struggling to get the synoptics spot on and unfortunately for the marginal parts of the NW, 50 or so miles further west can have a big impact on what falls from the sky here.

Yeah there's been some pretty hefty bursts of snow from that streamer and it's still being fed moisture off the North Wales coast so you might just get lucky in Ipswich

Still a possibility of another showery band passing south through the region between 4pm and 7pm - this should herald the arrival of colder air as the wind swings round to the NE. Further E you are in the region the more chance of seeing some further snow. I would hazard a stab at 15% chance for the westernmost areas of the region increasing to 50% for the easternmost. After that it should be a clear but very cold night for the whole of the region. Tuesday and Wednesday also looking promising on the forecast at he moment. Again I don't think it will be massive prolonged snowfall for the entire region but the favoured inland and higher altitude areas could do well. Outlook 7-10 days COLD! :excl: I think OON is an Ipswich fan ! :excl:

It's quite staggering how much modification there is from the Irish Sea. Added to this is the fact that warm air is being advected from the periphery of the current Greenland high due to the fact that the low currently tracking south has tracked further west than it was being modelled 24-36 hours ago. I think 10C might be pushing it a bit but who knows with our fascinating and totally unpredicatble climate. As for the band (front/trough) pushing south, it looks as if it will be losing intensity as it pushes towards tha NW region. Still it will introduce much colder air and a NErly feed that will at least protect any lying snow if you already have it. Here's hoping