wysiwyg

That doesn't necessarily mean it's correct and the BBC one isn't!

just remember that the GFS and it's stubborness is still at odds with the UKMO. Common sense tells me to stick with the UKMO output for now which will inevitably mean disappointment for the N and E of the region - However the GFS has stuck to its guns and can't really be discounted at this range - after all it did pick up tonight's light precip!

Where is that my friend? If I knew I would gladly offer my untrained but enthusiastic opinion as to your snow chances In other news: 18Z GFS still determined to push the heavy snow through the N of the region albeit a little later than shown on earlier runs!!

It's good for snow but the million dolar question is just exactly where the cold block and the warmer air will reach a stalemate (stall in met terms) Where it does stall will see a good few hours of heavy snow. The models have fairly consistently shuffled this stalling point further south and west reducing the chances of snow for the N and E of the region. That is, apart from the GFS that seems determined to push the warm air further east and therefore result in a more widespread snowfall for the region.

The cold air to our east is stubborn and supported by a fragmented polar jet - it will be hard to shift away to our east by any weather trying to move west to east from the atlantic - hence it's referred to as a block.

Sadly it's not looking great for your area just now in terms of model output and current forecast. However, these situations are very volatile and we could be looking a t a different picture by the morning.

I think last nights 0Z was poor as well although probably more in line with the METO output today

OK at the start of these ensembles the Green operational is in the lowest few members. By the 18th when the precip rises sharply the green line is the slowest to rise and reaches much lower than the mean. That's a bit of a sweeping statement not backed up by any evidence BT!! OK fair enough the differences are marginal so close to the start of the run but still!!

Get ready for the next roller-coaster mood swing!! Will it be drinks all round or flying dummies and toys?

Nothing amatuer at all about that! Excellent map - fits well with the current outputs we have available. Good on you for sticking your neck out and having a go instead of the usual doom and gloom we've seen here today

Yes the 12Z GEFS operational is definitely on the dry side of all the members

Interesting that in the very short term GFS ensembles the operational run is marginally the coldest of all runs in terms of uppers and marginally the driest in terms of precip for the Cheshire region and same for the Lancashire region. Could this suggest that the 12Z was actually underplaying the impact of the front tomorrow?

Agreed - I'm pretty sure their own operationals came more into agreement with the 12Z GFS

I think they more likely paid attention to their own global model and their high res local models

I would say it's pushing slightly North but it's certainly stopped any eastward progression - if anything the heaviest stuff is backing a little west again. As BT says too it's certainly got a fair bit of energy behind it pepping it up as it sits there. Not sure it'll quite have the legs to last until the other front gets here but it's certainly giving a bonus head start to anything we see tomorrow from the main event!

It's hard to say with any certainty. I'm only using the free 15 minute NetWeather radar at the moment so it's not obvious how this current precip is tracking. The heaviest stuff could wobble east or west and as it's a relatively small feature it's kind of pot luck where the snow will persist and where it will die out. Sorry to be a bit on the fence there but it really is tough to call with the info at hand.

Here's the 12Z general synopsis fax chart (i.e. it's the observed situation at midday today) The main front is shown as not occluded and is still sitting to the west of Ireland. There are two occlusions running up through Ireland and the Irish Sea. These are what are causing the snowfall just now.

As Kev19 just hinted it may be the reason why the main band does not get as far north and east as was originally expected. Nothing is nailed on yet though. Radar and lampost watching followed by later model outputs may give a better clue as to what might happen tomorrow.

Just to be clear ladies and gentlemen - what we are seeing now is instability in the strong SE wind ahead of the main front. In simple terms some of the warmer moist air has already tried to push east over the cold air. Sometimes this happens in a fragmented way but on this occasion a more organised "blob" of warm moist air has been thrown over us in the form of a mini occlusion. This occlusion is shown on the 12Z fax chart for today: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=fax;sess= Very difficult to track how these mini-features evolve but in this case it's worked out well for the NW giving a reasonably organised band of snow in most places except those near sea level. The fact that this is an occlusion (the warm air is floating above the cold air) means that it will eventually run out of steam, the cold air will mix with it and the snow will stop for a time. Then roll on the main front that is currently sat out across the far SW of the UK and Ireland - due to arrive (if it gets here at all) by tomorrow morning - Hope this helps - Wysi

It's not really being influenced by the cold block yet - give it another 8-12 hours and it will be slammed against the cold block, the warm air will be rising rapidly over the cold air and the vapour currently in there will rapidly condense out and fall through the cold air readily turning to snow

She must have forgotten to take her meds!

Did they manage to spell her name correctly today!

It was forecast - just not by the BBC and the METO only started mentioning it this afternoon

Still moderate snow here but proper flakes now instead of pellets. This is a huge bonus if we get some tomorrow too

IMO forget the BBC - they use the same data as the METO but it is almost always presented differently due to editorial and political agendas at the BBC!!