winterof79
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Everything posted by winterof79
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Indeed and 850s compliant -
That is FI and not at 144-150Z as I was showing.Not convinced about an Easterly at any stage on ECM
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And without getting at all complicated the majority of the models predict wintry weather at 144Z in winter.UKMO,GFS AND ECM .The conditions in a COLD N/Westerly should not be underestimated.A slack flow sets up at 150z and streamers off the Irish Sea cannot be discounted. And no there is no easterly
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I am not comparing with yesteryear.The drama on here is bordering on hysteria.It's forecast much colder next weekend and I am glad you are predicting a wintry shower.Also the snow before Xmas coated a good portion of West and north Yorkshire with any elevation.People should lower their expectations and maybe it would not be such a hammer blow when there is no Easterly
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So as I read the thread.....it's all going pear shaped.....it's a mild and wet run and FI is mild too Good job its FI then as it never verifies and it doesn't look a mild run up to 240 to me.Get a grip girls.It will be much colder later next week and some will get snow....again and after that well who knows.
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Nice chart from ECM.
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Trends.Not much use for a Nor Wester I imagine
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2009 Jan,several shots.
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Let's remember Ian talks for the West Country as well.....The further north you are the chances of colder N Westerlies improve.For some its getting interesting. It may be offside nowadays to post 8-10 day charts but hey ho
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Time will tell.The output is getting colder around the 13/14th each run As I posted before only a matter of time before the high shifts favourably for us.Lets face it,it doesn't have to be a massive westward correction
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What's not to like about this
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Looking a bit Jan 2009 ish to me.Upgrades to come as some have alluded to
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Low developing off coast of Florida closer to coast this run and earlier
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The Azores High to lose its sad mouth and eyes as it is pushed out of the picture
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It is all down to how our resident Slug/High migrates no more.... Here we are as of Today Here is a slug back in 1987 Here it is a few days later all that damn cold to the East And here it is a few days after that And finally she ends up here Big fat PV also Let us hope the high stays around long enough to run out of directions to travel and have to migrate North/N/East eventually
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All to play for.HNY
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I had better go and look then good job I know where to.
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GP alluded to that a couple of days ago.For those confused with the thread this morning I would say this.There remains a signal for cold to move westward in the 10-15 day period and has done for some time.The conditions are open for high pressure cells to form near or to the E/W or North of the UK.The exact positioning of this cell is the models dilemma which then becomes the members on here's issue of which scenario is correct.
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As Ali posted
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This ties in that the METO were seeing an increase in PC flows in their extended. Seems it is gathering momentum now.
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I feel there will be many bites of the cherry in January if pressure remains near or West of the UK.
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Where is the high going to sink?Due South straight through Portugal.Low heights either side.All that will do is allow cold to come South as there is nothing coming from the West The Atlantic road is closed for the foreseeable
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Relax people.The high is just progged differently on this run.The MET see it hanging around most of Jan so I for one am happy.No Atlantic onslaught always in the game for colder N/NE outbreaks.
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A tanking AO is a clear indication around our region that cold weather is around the corner.I cannot recall a time when it was a faux pas
