winterof79

Interesting cluster going colder early on but in the extended the Control hits the bottle hard

I much prefer Mr Hammonds. And then a battle rather than an Atlantic onslaught

Gulp..........I hope you are a cat

For once it is getting nearer and stronger too

GFS going it's own way with its modelling over Canada and Northern States.Interesting latter stages from ECM and GEM with more forcing over the pond.We will have a period of Atlantic driven crud to go through for sure as is the norm for our Island but if we can get a week of proper winter I'm sure it will be worth it

Its resistance is futile

While it is quiet.....My version THE BRADLEY SPELLS to the right 3. BUCHAN'S SPELLS. (NB: strictly based on records across south-east Scotland, and specifically Edinburgh.) Nine periods where put forward by Alexander Buchan in 1867 on the basis of 50 years of observations (though some texts quote only 1857-1866), constituting fairly reliable periods of unseasonal cold (6 cases) or warmth (3 cases). Note that Buchan himself did not claim these as 'singularities' and it is widely accepted that they have little real predictive merit: they are included here for the sake of historical completeness. (**=shows some correspondence with Lamb etc.) 7th - 14th February: COLD** Mild 11th - 14 April: COLD Mild 9th - 14th May: COLD** Not as mild (Now known as summer) 29th June - 4th July: COLD/COOL Getting milder 12th - 15th July: WARM very mild and wet 6th - 11th August: COLD/COOL Getting milder and damper 12th - 15th August: WARM** very mild and wet 6th - 13th November: COLD Not as mild 3rd - 14th December: WARM/MILD** warm and wet

JFF,be just our luck really an SSW Cross Polar Heights And we end up with this muck

I knew something was bugging me about the 00z. I was just looking at the temps on this for my area The GFS OP is on the mild side for 850s next weekend so I looked at the GEFS which have a colder look ,and interesting outcomes. http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=180 http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=180 Another 3/4 day below average period at the end of the week is a distinct possibility.

Trouble is the bar is set too high in here, nowadays, which leads to early disappointment. The constant search for an Easterly is going to wear you down.Plenty of hard frosts this winter ,so far, and a cold snap at present with more frosts to come. Nothing wrong with this chart which shows colder air to our N/E pushing down whilst a depression tries to move in from the Atlantic. Icelandic heights too I posted this yesterday but I think the majority were on the East coast with their Binos searching for deep cold And for those who are worried that winter is over here is a reminder of the METOs buzz phrase for this winter in the longer term: I quote "Confidence is very low in details as we head towards.........."

Yes I think we are getting that rammed down our throats today, whether that is the result is another debate

Help me out here....Can someone please show me where/why a western based NAO is so bad for us in the extended. First we do not want the PV over N/E Canada now it seems even that is no good. Any further than this is mega La La land Bit of action up above too in the extended if you run through. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=300&mode=10&carte=1

Westerlies?Not any time soon Ice Ice Baby Cold for the reliable

Think its a disturbance in the Easterly flow heading for Southern parts as it stands

The good thing is I can't see it staying slap over us.We're in good order

Not sure this run will verify for Southern Europe so I'm out on the 12z No scientific reason but I cannot see or remember that depth of cold down there. But then looking at UKMO who knows

Do expand? http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=temp For your digestion

At present it looks like the colder air to our East will, after a slight nudge Eastward, then push back West once more.

YUP

And after this afternoons run it should too.

Its only going one way

Check out the METO face book page it has a 40 min discussion including the development of Thursdays potential snow. Great watch. https://www.facebook.com/search/top/?q=met office

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A fast evolving and highly fluid period of weather has begun

Doh ! Why didn't I just post the gif. Thanks for that though