winterof79

Looks like the trough dropping down from the N/E to my untrained eye

Quite astounding tanking.I wonder when was the last time during winter it did that for such length

It couldn't.......could it??

The big question is will the updated METO 120 Fax resemble this in any way??

North Easterly of sorts at 192z on ECM Wind from a cold source over relatively warm North Sea.Possible wintry showers in land with hard frosts at night.

I suppose the stamps was not a great analogy of what I was trying to get over. The D7 charts on my link ,however, I feel do show a resistance to the Atlantic and would allow a more Northerly/north Easterly flow which the METO may be leaning toward on their extended. "Further showers or longer spells of rain, with some hill snow likely on Tuesday. By midweek, some organised rain is likely in the north and southwest at first, with possibly some hill snow. Elsewhere, a continuing mixture of sunshine and wintry showers, with some snow reaching lower levels later" Nice to be able to discuss the prospect so early.

Looking at the GEFS and the Atlantic high at 168Z ,the Control and quite a number of other perturbs have the high more robust and allowing nothing over the top I have also included link for the 168 for the UKMO and if you click on the other models at D7 they too say no to a sinking high scenario as only GFS has the milder air coming over the top. https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ It will automatically take you to D2 on GFS ,then you can navigate to D7 and see the differences

Nice displacement my son and not as quick to flatten this run

John Hammond‏ @hammondweather 23m23 minutes ago John Hammond Retweeted weathertrending Much more likely later next week when trend is much colder #uksnowhttps://twitter.com/weathertrending/status/933078456111435779 … John Hammond added, weathertrending @weathertrending Some #weatherapps are indicating #uksnow Friday night into Saturday across parts of lowland southern Britain. At the moment this is possible but UNLIKELY. A lot of marginal factors would have to come together...

The colder air is actually further south than the 12z

Low off southern Greenland tilting against the developing high reaching from the Azores which is an improvement

Nice chin up post Blue. The last time the NAO tanked was middle of September

Jet off on a two tier holiday.Pressure building oop north.Steady as she goes through the Barents?

Many perturbs are blocked by the end of the run.....just an observation Sincere condolences Legritter.

Totally agree. No matter how many times the models hinted at cold scenarios last Winter ,the METO extended was never interested. There is a clue there somewhere

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ecm&var=1&run=0&time=0&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref

This shows the East veering North Easterly nicely

Yes North East veering East weer-en-klimaatpluim.svgweer-en-klimaatpluim.svg

http://www.knmi.nl/nederland-nu/weer/waarschuwingen-en-verwachtingen/weer-en-klimaatpluim Click on expertpluim on drop down box Nice link for you guys and Gals to explore.

Very seasonal ECM charts this morning.

Blocking mentioned by the Met always a recurring theme on models.Matt H on the strat thread adding to my feelings.ECM this morning and GFS the other day GEFS showing some interest mid month too

12z cold again when only looking at the 12Zs and not the vagaries of every run

Mid month cold spell not going away

Pressure build over North America as the vortex starts to capitulate In the medium term it is about what happens to the pressure build to our North ECM GEM ECM slides it VERY quickly s/e in to the Continent GEM has a slower progression which pulls in continental winds