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Everything posted by winterof79
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I wonder do we have any stats on the ECM 46 day verification over winters gone by? Matt Hugo used to roll it out regularly but I am less than convinced.- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I do not see anything out of the ordinary in the reliable time frames and cold zonality thereafter http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=198&mode=2- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
2009 brought some belting N/Westerlies if I recall Look what happened afterward So I will take a re-run of 2009- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Looks like we are going negative toward New year- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
It can only be one thing that is causing this......a rare occurrence is manifesting itself in the wings- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes I did need to put a chart up from Dec 86 same vortex intensity though- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Obviously, but still not that similar in my eyes. PV not organised this year.I hope we end up the same though 1987 2017- 2,328 replies
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Model output discussion - winter proper underway
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
For the newbies who may get drawn into thinking we are on the cusp of never ending zonal weather I suggest you read back through the thread and note Tamara and GPs posts, to name only two. A read of the longer term METO weather outlook would appear to lean toward a blocking high setting up in our locale after Christmas. My own personal understanding is that it could well be to our N/E.It could also be out West as the threat of snow for Northern and Central parts remains in the forecast. Plenty to look forward to and a cracking start to winter from day 1.- 2,328 replies
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Wrap around effect going on with snow moving in from East
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SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards
winterof79 replied to Captain Shortwave's topic in Regional
Enjoy your snow everyone love from the North -
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion - 07/12/2017 Onwards
winterof79 replied to BlueHedgehog074's topic in Regional
Enjoy your snow everyone -
It looked like it had stalled over Sheffield but its slowed down a lot.Keep going my San
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Stall alert
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Jeez this is Sooooo painful to watch
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I have not even bothered with the model thread as I know what will be happening.
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Somebody's dreams will come true on Sunday. I believe -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nick I totally agree. Even a blind Squirrel will eventually stumble upon an acorn. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would say Southern pennines too. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes but it pivots a smidgeon too -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Slightly further north 18Z http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=78&mode=0 -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
OH NO on the 18z at 6h the Greenland high bone has connected to the Scottish low bone which can only mean the sliding snow fest will track into the Bay of Biscay which will mean the jet fires up and the blo torch westerlys pick up and we all BBQ for xmas ..........Does it not? Medic -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I would suggest the uppers will be colder over UK depending on snow cover and cold pooling.It will probably be different anyway. One thing looking more likely is a filling low somewhere e/se of us -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion