winterof79

Dear Exeter....

GFS UKMO Colder in Europe

GFS not got a handle to our East yet....

We have some sliding occurring

Some body has left the freezer door ajar methinks

Better from the 12Z the block beating its chest 06Z 12z

I presume you mean a little like this set up for the blocking Then a bit of WAA like this And then a advection west of colder air like this......Cycle 1 and Cycle 2 Leading to BULLSEYE Easy peasy.

There is an ever growing signal in the GEFS to eventually have a trigger low undercutting. Make no mistake February can deliver the goods.......stronger sun and lengthening days do not cut it with me when looking at these charts. The winter thus far has got to have been good with regards to frosts etc in the Southern areas and the longer range holds much promise. A period of the Atlantic trying to push through the meridian is nothing to get fraught about as it is not exactly pushing through to Siberia. Not a bad bias corrected mean

Who needs a cigar? I'll settle for that.

So the confusing thing is that Blue mentioned the last two ECM OP runs had snow and southerly tracking jet? No wonder confusion reigns in here sometimes

Too far out to go into detail but I think the poster is correct looking at the set up.Very cold rain.

Yes it may change as the probability becomes higher the nearer we get

There is a definite signal for pressure rises to our N/E moving to our North / N/W It is delayed,when compared to the ECM 12Z, but the GEFS but still toying with it

Don't you just hate people who pattern match

There is a signal for heights to build to our N/E at some juncture as posted on this thread.If that continues then there is more chance of trough disruption and energy going s/e.The trend is for the blocking to put up more of a fight than the models initially predicted. Not trying to fill people with false hopes,just seeing options/possibilities.

GEFS throwing out some medium/high level blocking solutions Undercut coming to a place near you soon....... Loving 12

Yes Bobby dog I have edited my post to suit

I do like it when you bring good news

A long long time ago in1991 there was not a lot happening a high slap bang over us on the 13th Bit like now Atlantic trying to nudge in Bit like now Cold for South East bla bla Block said hang on matey I belong over Blighty And what's more I will bring reinforcements and you will never get in And we all lived happily ever after....... Who needs an SSW? Although it may help

Battle ground forming with every run

It could be me but following downwelling in the past seems to allow colder continental air to retrogress toward us rather than an arctic plunge. This year the cold air seems to have been embedded over Europe for a while so you never know.

Story of this winter One model shows promise GFS the other busts it UKMO I know Nick will be able to give me the upstream differences and their subsequent consequences for us

Not much point in getting any hopes up over here really then? SSW or no SSW If that is how it transpires. Why am I not surprised. Although no one of any standing has predicted anything correct thus far.

It will be just put the big coat on for us Norverners

Yes all tongue in cheek feb, just a matter of time really. Nice to see the continental flow make a fist of it for a while.