bluecon

There is no complete world climate record going back more than a hundred years or even for the 30's.

What do you mean one freak year? There were several very warm years in the 20's and 30's. Of course NASA seems to like to fudge the data and pretend it has never been warm before. Like this. Wiki is sort of a climate change source for Bolsheviks. Wiki is now useless as a source of AGW info. "Wikipedians make ceaseless efforts to denigrate leading scientists who question global warming Fred Singer, one of the world's renowned scientists, believes in Martians. I discovered this several weeks ago while reading his biography on Wikipedia, the online encyclopedia. "Do you really believe in Martians?" I asked him last week, at a chance meeting at a Washington event. The answer was "No." Wikipedia's error was neither isolated not inadvertent. The page that Wikipedia devotes to what is ostensibly Fred Singer's biography is designed to trivialize his long and outstanding scientific career by painting him as a political partisan and someone who "is best known as president and founder (in 1990) of the Science & Environmental Policy Project, which disputes the prevailing scientific views of climate change, ozone depletion, and second-hand smoke and is science advisor to the conservative journal NewsMax."" http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=472611

The 30's were just as warm as anything we have seen lately and now it is cooling. "NASA and the Warmest Year Back in August, 2007, there was a flurry of news items about how NASA had revised its temperature measurements and was now showing 1934 to be the warmest year on record, not 1998. The global warming story was one of steadily increasing temperatures, so this sounded very significant. A lot of the right wing blogs had a field day with it and made it sound like NASA couldn't get its math straight. James Hansen of NASA and other warming researchers replied that the revision was minor and didn't change the big picture at all. " http://www.free-the-memes.net/writings/war...ttest_year.html

I already posted this. Up till the last couple years ice increased in the area of the Northern passage since 1998. It will again. Unfortunate the graphs are not up to date. Canadian Archipelego Ice extents(area of the NW Passage) have increased greatly since 1999. Another fallacy put to rest? This explains why it was so easy for the St. Roch ll to traverse the passage. http://www.socc.ca/images/seaice/islands_two.jpg Looking at the actual evidence it appears the ice is behind last years pace. http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=19&sy=2008 Still freezing in the Arctic with a warm front on the way. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/jet_stream/index_e.html

Why attack the fact the man worked in the intelligence field and then call the people that disagree with you the 'usual suspects'? Better to stick to the science. Wiki is controlled by the AGW proponents. As a result has become has become a useless source for any discussion of AGW.

Well over a hundred boats through the NW Passage. "The Coast Guard told us we were the 101st ship ever to go through the Northwest Passage. "Dagmar Aaen" continued on to Greenland, Iceland ans Scotland, returning to a hero's welcome in Germany on November 11. She had been away two-and-a-half-years." http://www.arved-fuchs.de/hotspot/news_diary_frame.htm

Compare ice cover 2007 to 2008 http://igloo.atmos.uiuc.edu/cgi-bin/test/p...=18&sy=2008

Yes there was a long period of record temps. "Record 22C temperatures in Arctic heatwave Parts of the Arctic have experienced an unprecedented heatwave this summer, with one research station in the Canadian High Arctic recording temperatures above 20C, about 15C higher than the long-term average. The high temperatures were accompanied by a dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice in September to the lowest levels ever recorded, a further indication of how sensitive this region of the world is to global warming. Scientists from Queen's University in Ontario watched with amazement as their thermometers touched 22C during their July field expedition at the High Arctic camp on Melville Island, usually one of the coldest places in North America. "This was exceptional for a place where the normal average temperatures are about 5C. This year we frequently recorded daytime temperatures of between 10C and 15C and on some days it went as high as 22C," said Scott Lamoureux, a professor of geography at Queen's. "Even temperatures of 15C are higher than we'd expect and yet we recorded them for between 10 and 12 days during July. We won't know the August and September recordings until next year when we go back there but it appears the region has continued to be warm through the summer."" http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/c...ave-394196.html Larsen is on record of having said he could cruise through the passage most any year in the 30's and 40's when he was in the Arctic for years at a time. You have no idea how often the passage was open in the past. This is only a partial list and the 5th boat in history quote is not accurate. Many more boats have gone through the passage in a single season. 1940-1944 ..... The 'St Roch', a Royal Canadian Mounted Police vessel became the first vessel to complete the passage in one season and the first vessel to pass through both ways. *1969 ..... Exxon's specially modified oil tanker, the 'Manhattan' became the first commercial vessel to transit the passage. Accompanied by two ice breakers and at a cost of ten's of millions of dollars it symbolically took on one barrel of oil. As of 2004 it remains the only commercial vessel to make the passage. *1977 ..... The Belgian, Willie de Roos, sailing his 44 ft steel sailboat became the first sailboat to transit the passage and completing the voyage in one season. *1995 .... 'Dove' a 27ft steel sailboat, built and skippered by Winston Bushnell and with two friends as crew also completed the voyage in one season becoming the fifth boat in history to do so. *2003 .... On the 100th anniversary of 'Gjoa' first ever transit seven vessels attempted the passage. Two made it through successfully. Three were caught in the ice where they have been for the past 10 months. The remaining two we haven't yet been able to track down. http://www.theoceans.net/story/NorthwestPa...eApr72005.shtml

There was also a period of very unusually high temperatures last year. Temps are lower than the past. http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.ph...-in-the-arctic/

The Europeans sure are'nt very nice to Polar Bears. Second Polar Bear this summer in Europe shot. just because they like to eat people is no reason to shoot them. http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/in-...s/wayward-bear/

It depends where the humans were living. South America? North America? Europe? Australia? Asia? Africa? A few hundred years ago the people of Canada were still stone age. There is a wide divergence of rates of civilization. The Indians of NA never had horses until the Europeans overan the place. Let us not forget that when no scientist could figure out powered flight a couple of hillbilly bicycle mechanics did. The consensus of science has been wrong innumerable times throughout history.

The aphids are destroying my Honeysuckle vines. How do you control them?

Snowing in the Arctic again today. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/jet_stream/index_e.html

The Ice Ages occur in fairly predictable cycles. Believed to be caused by the relationship of the Earth to the Sun. The present warm period we are living in is the anomoly and the Earth is more commonly in a much colder climate. Lucky for us the next Ice Age is far in the future. Of course a LIA is possible and the Sun will determine that. I well remember when I was working towards my geology degree in the late 70's early 80's all the talk of the coming Ice Age. The brilliant proffessor who I was working under scoffed at the idea and said the Earth had been warming for hundrds of years. Of course he was right. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

Humans have thrived in the warm spells and suffered in the cold spells. The ice age which will reoccur is a greater danger than a slight warming.

The Earth is always either warming or cooling. We are now headed into a cold cycle.

I am surprised that you would walk away from the argument if it does not suit your purpose. What would Winston Churchill think? It is hard to respect a man that runs when things get a little tough. Your beliefs may prove to be right or wrong but you should not run when things are going against the theories. Either accept the theories or prove it wrong. That is what science is about. Many of the greatest scientists in history were wrong at different points in their careers. And then they continued on with the new knowledge. Never quit. That is what made England great.

Ther are several months of cold weather and a few months of warm weather. Granted the unusual warmth of last summer likely has a large affect. However I think the severe cold of last winter will overide that. Latest ice extent. http://www.socc.ca/seaice/seaice_current_e.cfm Canadian Archipelego Ice extents(area of the NW Passage) have increased greatly since 1999. Another fallacy put to rest? This explains why it was so easy for the St. Roch ll to traverse the passage. http://www.socc.ca/images/seaice/islands_two.jpg

Actually if you looked at the factual information Larsen believed he could make it through the NW Passage almost any year in the Thirties and Forties. And proved it with his easy transit in 1944. Of course it was unusual in that the waters had never had a boat through them before and he had know idea what was in store.

One overlooked point is, can a couple months of warm summer temperatures overcome the many months of extreme cold in the Arctic last Winter. This could well make the argument of old ice or new ice moot. I have done a little reading on this in the last few days and am coming to the conclusion that the temperature in the Winter is the overiding factor in determining the amount of ice. And I ordered an old book complete with pictures of Larsen's 1944 journey. The guy was amazing in taking the St. Roch through uncharted waters of the Arctic.

Definately not true. Larsen's voyage in 1944 is well documented and I sure would like to see the photographs. Obviously if you go 7500miles in 86 days with a small diesel you are not slowly picking your way through ice. The St. Roch was built to survive being trapped in the ice and was no ice breaker. It travelled all over the Arctic for many years and was routinely frozen in the ice for the winter. He actually picked up and delivered an Inuit family during the voyage and of course there is a book written by Larsen about the St. Roch in the Artic. From the summer of 2,000. "A Canadian police patrol boat has completed a voyage through the fabled Northwest Passage without encountering any pack ice. It opens up the possibility of commercial shipping using a route which would shorten the journey between Europe and Asia by about eight-thousand kilometres (5,000 miles). Most of the passage along the coast of Alaska and Canada lies north of the Arctic Circle and scientists say that the absence of ice may be further evidence of global warming. But conservationists are concerned that commercial exploitation could irreversibly damage the pristine environment, particularly if the route is used by oil tankers. The Canadian patrol boat the St Roch II - renamed after an earlier Canadian expedition in 1944 - made the journey in nine weeks, less than half the time expected." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/918448.stm

Your post is not based on fact. The little St. Roch operated in the Arctic for years and Larsen thought he could cross through the NW passage many times. In 1944 the little St. Roch with a small diesel for power crossed from Halifax to Vancouver through the NW Passage in 86 days for the whole trip. 7,500 miles in 86 days with a 130hp diesel and sail power. "Larsen made several requests to proceed through the North West passage during years when ice conditions appeared conducive to success. For example in 1936-37 when Sir James MacBrien toured the North he asked if he could proceed through, only to be reminded they were RCMP officers and not explorers." http://lit.lib.ru/t/tatarin_l_s/msword-29.shtml And in 2,000 the little St. Roch II easily made it through with little ice to contend with. http://archives.cbc.ca/politics/federal_po...cs/clips/13660/

Quite interesting the press is reporting that last years voyages through the NorthWest passage were a first when nothing of the sort is true. "The problem is that ships have sailed through the Northwest Passage before today and long before a police patrol did it in 2000. It has happened several times. The historically impassable route has been passed through numerous times for over a century now. Here is a photo of the St. Roch. It’s a wooden ship, not some massive, metallic icebreaker. According to the Vancouver Maritime Museum web site, this 104 foot wooden ship sailed through the Northwest Passage from 1940 to 1942, that was from west to east. In 1944 it did it again from from east to west. King George VI awarded Captain Henry Larsen, and the crew, the Polar Medal for making the 1944 voyage. The Maritime Museum also includes a little information about the Northwest Passage as well. And they specifically mention that the famed Norwegian explorer Roald Amundsen “became the first person to sail the entire Passage from east to west” and that was in 1906. Remember that police patrol boat that went through the Passage on the other “first” time in 2000? It was actually named the St. Roch II. It sailed the same route as the first St. Roch as a fund raiser to help preserve the original ship. They were re-enacting the previous voyage from 60 years earlier. The USS Storis made the journey in 1957 as this US Coast Guard history of the ship mentions. They do claim, falsely, that this trip “ended a 450-year search for the Northwest Passage” neglecting to mention the St. Roch did it twice before them and Amundsen did so as well. Here is a photo of the Storis during its 1957 trip through the Northwest Passage. A Dutch businessman, Willy de Roos, 56, made a solo voyage through the Northwest Passage in 1977 and you can see a Canadian Broadcasting Network clip on the journey here. They have another report on the S.S. Manhattan making the trip through the Passage in 1969 I shouldn’t neglect to mention that a couple of Canadians, Mike Beedell and Jeffrey MacInnis, sailed through the Northwest Passage using a catamaran with wind power only. That was in 1988. And in 1985 there was a diplomatic row between the US and Canada because the ship, the Polar Sea, was setting sail through the Northwest Passage and hadn’t asked Canadian permission. The US argued it was international waters and Canada said it wasn’t. Even tourists on the M.V. Lindblad, a Swedish ship, have traveled through the Northwest Passage. They did it with luxurious food and in comfort. The trip was a 40 day trip from Newfoundland to Japan via the Passage and cost the tourists $16,000 to $22,000 in 1984! You can even hear the captain being interviewed by Canadian radio saying that the ice is in retreat and the water is open. That was back during the time when the panic mongers were pushing the global cooling theory. The Lindblad made a second trip through the Passage in 1988. In 1977 another Canadian ship, with four Canadians, made the trip through the Passage as well. At one point of their trip they sailed together with the Dutch businessman who was making the solo trip. So you had two different ships traveling through the “historically impassable” Passage at the same time. I guess that is the Passage’s equivalent of a rush hour." http://freestudents.blogspot.com/2007/09/b...st-passage.html

Well it really depends on the data. For some reason NASA data is adjusted upwards and the Earths temp appears to be rising and the satellite data and ocean bouy data shows a slight cooling.

"Global Warming and the Price of a Gallon of Gas by John Coleman "There is no significant man made global warming. There has not been any in the past, there is none now and there is no reason to fear any in the future. The climate of Earth is changing. It has always changed. But mankind's activities have not overwhelmed or significantly modified the natural forces." "Well, it is simply not happening. Worldwide there was a significant natural warming trend in the 1980's and 1990's as a Solar cycle peaked with lots of sunspots and solar flares. That ended in 1998 and now the Sun has gone quiet with fewer and fewer Sun spots, and the global temperatures have gone into decline. Earth has cooled for almost ten straight years. So, I ask Al Gore, where's the global warming? The cooling trend is so strong that recently the head of the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change had to acknowledge it. He speculated that nature has temporarily overwhelmed mankind's warming and it may be ten years or so before the warming returns. Oh, really. We are supposed to be in a panic about man-made global warming and the whole thing takes a ten year break because of the lack of Sun spots. If this weren't so serious, it would be laughable. Now allow me to talk a little about the science behind the global warming frenzy. I have dug through thousands of pages of research papers, including the voluminous documents published by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. I have worked my way through complicated math and complex theories. Here's the bottom line: the entire global warming scientific case is based on the increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the use of fossil fuels. They don't have any other issue. Carbon Dioxide, that's it." http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/19842304.html