craig1uk

In that case, happy new year buddy, it's gonna be a goodun!

I can't think about it yet, the anticipation of tour 1 in the alley is enough to make me burst already, I really am spoiling myself this year And Mr Fisherman, what a birthday thats going to be !! Looking forward to the celebrations

Yep, not great, is it anything to do with coverage / signals up there?

Andy Gabrielson just drove through a very smashed up town, not good http://216.131.81.11...rielson&uid=140 Edit, Mapleton IA

Looks like Reeds underneath it on http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

Looks like things might be kicking off in OK,, WOUS64 KWNS 082230 WOU8 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 108 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 535 PM CDT FRI APR 8 2011 TORNADO WATCH 108 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KSC001-003-015-017-019-031-035-049-059-073-077-079-099-111-125- 133-139-173-191-205-207-090600- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.110408T2235Z-110409T0600Z/ KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BUTLER CHASE CHAUTAUQUA COFFEY COWLEY ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD HARPER HARVEY LABETTE LYON MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SEDGWICK SUMNER WILSON WOODSON OKC003-011-015-017-035-039-043-047-053-055-071-073-075-083-093- 103-105-113-117-119-147-149-151-153-090600- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0108.110408T2235Z-110409T0600Z/ OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CRAIG CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GRANT GREER KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR NOBLE NOWATA OSAGE PAWNEE PAYNE WASHINGTON WAonionsA WOODS WOODWARD ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...TSA...TOP... 22.31 utc

Yea, their twistadata page is good too, with the forecast soundings available via the same means Also, spc just issued an MD for Georgia, might get to see an isolated supercell later on on sky sports ! REALLY wish I had 3d now

MD issued for OK MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0371 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 PM CDT FRI APR 08 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL INTO NRN OK...S CNTRL KS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 081926Z - 082100Z WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN NEXT HOUR OR SO AS CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF OK INTO FAR S-CNTRL KS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM AND CAN BE MAINTAINED. WHILE A CAP IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING BENEATH LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE NOW SHIFTING EWD INTO THE OZARK MTNS...A WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING THROUGH SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW INTO WRN OK MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S ORIENTED DRY LINE ACROSS WRN OK...TO FOCUS DEEP LAYER ASCENT AND DEVELOP AN UPDRAFT OR TWO STRONG ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION AROUND 21Z IN THE VICINITY OF KFSI. VIS SATELLITE SHOWED A DEVELOPING CU FIELD ALONG THE RED RIVER TO NEAR KLTS TO NEAR KFSI. WHILE THIS CONVECTION REMAINED SHALLOW AS OF 1830Z...MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THAT MLCAPE VALUES HAD INCREASED TO AROUND 3000 J/KG AND THE CAP WAS WEAKENING DUE TO SFC HEATING. SFC OBS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT WARMING OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO BEING MAINTAINED IN THE MID 60S ON SELY SFC FLOW OF 10-15 KT. IN ADDITION TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL CLUES...HI-RES MODELS /HRRR AND WRF-NMM/ HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS INITIATION LOCATION/TIMING. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLY...MODELS ALSO INDICATE A VERY CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH ONLY ONE OR TWO STORMS BEING GENERATED. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION COULD BE FURTHER N TOWARD N-CNTRL OK CLOSER TO A W-E ORIENTED STATIONARY BOUNDARY/MOISTURE GRADIENT WHICH IS ALSO SERVING AS AN AREA FOR WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...THE CAP IS STRONGER HERE AND INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CUMULUS IN THIS REGION REMAINS POOR. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN OVERCOME THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE HAIL WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8.5 C/KM. STRONG WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SFC TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 DEGREES AND RELATIVELY DRY MID LEVELS ABOVE SHALLOW MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ..STOPPKOTTE.. 04/08/2011

Thanks , quite a fundamental point right there then :blush:

Alot of storms have been just east of the plains so far this year, is this normal for this time of the season, and should we expect this trend to persist / work its way back west a bit later on? Also, just noticed that spc are displaying zulu time in gmt still, does this mean that 00z tonight will be at 1am here?

Not too shabby a guess really, Mod risk, 8 'nados, still no closer to knowing the definition of the start of the season, would have thought they'd have thought one up along the lines of the monsoon season criteria ?

Arizona baby !!!!!!! Can't wait

Tease !!!!

Hiya Dub, yea I suffer with hayfever every year at home but did'nt find it a problem at all on the chase last year will still take tablets out there with me though as they help if you get the odd mozzie bite

Bugger How about a BIG periscope ?

After my bust the other day sitting in Pine Bluff AR ,I think I'll position myself in SE OK, maybe Eagletown on fri and give myself options, Gfs has the bulk of the cape in LA, although there is no mention of this on the spc outlook, ( I'm new at this, I don't know why ), so I'll start there and see what transpires

Hello mate, yea T1 ( 60 days to go ) Can't make Cardiff tho sadly, had a photography course booked since Sept for this Sat, sods law eh!

Yea thats my understanding, makes it alot easier eh ! Still learning how to decipher them myself, currently working through a tutorial at Meted http://www.meted.ucar.edu/topics_convective.php if thats of any help to anyone ?

Looking good today, if the cap is broken

Severe studios live chase : http://www.severestudios.com/livechase Tornado videos . net live chase map : http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen Chaser tv : http://www.chasertv.com/

Cheers Paul, that'll do it !

Awsome, busy wkend ahead then! BTW, don't suppose anyone knows where I can find forcast skew t 's to look at, for say 24hrs ahead?

Ok, my first stab a this, basing alot of my choice on GFS and not knowing the chase terrain whatsoever, I think I would kick around in Pine Bluff AR for a while and see what fires up, seems to be where the most insability is at @ 21z, and go from there

Big MCS is something I'd really like to see, maybe experience a monster HP cell and a picturesque shelf cloud please, and for you Paul to reach the half century in the first ten days !

Thanks for the info John and Paul, have been looking around for examples of lightning shots at different apetures to see how they vary, knowledge is power and all that, sooooo looking forward to putting it into practice soon !!