fromey

this is from the NOAA weather prediction centre, i have no idea what its saying or how it impacts us so.............. discuss Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 158 AM EST Tue Dec 20 2022 Valid 12Z Fri Dec 23 2022 - 12Z Tue Dec 27 2022 ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The 00Z model guidance suite has now come into better agreement on the expected synoptic scale set-up for the major Eastern U.S. low pressure system, and recent model trends have stabilized with a slight eastward adjustment in the placement of the low (12Z ECENS slightly northwest of 00z model consensus). Therefore, a general model compromise suffices as a starting point in the forecast process, even though some smaller mesoscale differences in the guidance remain. There also remains a good model signal for a better defined southern stream shortwave, with the CMC remaining most amplified with this feature as it drops southward over eastern Mexico. Towards the end of the forecast period, model depiction has improved with an amplifying trough across the Northeast Pacific early next week with the next storm system to affect the Pacific Northwest. However, there is more model spread with a trough building over the Midwest by next Tuesday, so more of the ensemble means were incorporated for days 6 and 7.

its just Ice! and the roads and paths are lethal now.

Just ice falling! And not small bits either!

Slow thaw setting now, 6 days of lying snow 4 ice days the other 2 barely scrapping above 0c for a few mins. all in all not bad for the beginning of winter

thanks for that, looks to be a consensus which is never good!

Actually it was

this is an excerpt from the extended forecast which Nick Sussex was on about Latest GFS runs are somewhat between established consensus and the western extremes. These differences lead into the significant spread for where potentially deep low pressure may develop/consolidate late in the week. The early part of the updated forecast started with a 06Z/00Z model composite with most weight on the 00Z ECMWF and least on the UKMET. Then the blend transitioned to greater emphasis on the 00Z ECMWF mean, last two ECMWF runs, and 00Z CMC/CMC mean with only modest incorporation of the 06Z GFS/GEFS mean. This solution led to the best continuity possible given the guidance spread. The new 12Z runs suggest that the "most likely" scenario could well change, depending on how the remainder of the 12Z ensemble suite turns out. i hope this makes sense

To begin with, then they will switch around to the northwest

so final figure for this morning is -8.9c. so for this cold spell ive have 3 ice days the 4th just scrapped above 0c and 5 days of lying snow. not bad all things considered.

A tad nippy this morning

i was up in your neck of the woods today, stow and Bourton on the water, absolutely stunning. bloody cold though

they use the ECMWF generally its behind, i may be wrong

Ibuprofen and a cold compress should help, take care.

not weather related, im a nurse so dont wrap yourself up, take your temp if you can, you could have a high temp, paracetamol and ibuprofen if you can take them, plenty of fluids ( cold fluids)

Im thinking the same but a shift of 20-30 miles north isn't out of the realm of possibility's but im not going to bet my house on it.

regarding the warning, Somerset! that's a pretty broad brush, Somerset is a large county. Somerset is split into north,south,east and west Somerset. defiantly a nowcast situation

It’s February 2019 all over again. Just keeps going

That made me laugh out loud

Big fat flakes here, considering on the weather on bbc one last night said we may get a few flakes!! IMG_6879.MOV

Yeah I’m in frome, some nice big flakes IMG_6872.MOV

A nice light dusting this morning

Could we get a link up with the pacific and the greenland high??

Met office now have a cold action level 3 warning out, they issued a level 1 yesterday! That escalated quickly!

i would never have guest!!!!

I will leave this here!!