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johnholmes

Retired Pro Forecaster / Meteorologist
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Posts posted by johnholmes

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Hi John, I guess you refer to the PSU e-wall not producing the charts atm

    Tropicaltidbits site is a good reference, though you cant get GFS and EC side by side comparison like PSU site, below is a link for GFS op at H500 with anomaly

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015112506&fh=6&xpos=0&ypos=821

    ... or the EC det at H500 and anomaly:

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2015112500&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=82

    Also there are the GEFS and EPS H500 mean and anomaly if you click on ensemble tab above the chart.

     

    many thanks for that info Nick, have you any idea what is the problem with the site I use?

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    To be quite frank if anything there is a strengthening threat between all of the output of a very mild SE/NW split in the weather coming up again from next week and because of the nature of these setups they can be an absolute stubborn animal to break out of once established which on past proof has given the UK weeks and weeks of mild weather in Winters past without a hint of cold. I am not of course saying that this is going to happen this time round but it does look like the chance of anything wintry is put back to well into December at least unless the models start to diverge from their current output soon. Sorry folks just saying it as I see it.

     

    not totally supported by NOAA or EC-GFS anomaly charts Gibby, nor really from Met 6-15 day outlooks, link below to that

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

    links to the anomaly charts are in my earlier post if anyone wishes to check this=post 687

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    They had Euro HP dominant and fixed and weren't they showing the same for rest of 2015?  Now re always possible...I would say a a January 1987 event in next couple of weeks is impossible :D

     

    Personally thanks for message you posted :good: much appreciated

     

    BFTP

     

    Not sure which anomaly charts you refer to above Fred. Certainly not the ones I use. Indeed their time scale is, at most, 15 days with NOAA. Not sure what any others show as I have never done as much checking on them as I did a few years ago with NOAA along with EC-GFS?

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    I'll try again after nearly 10 minutes setting up a post, it disappeared as I tried to type a link ECMWF!

    back in a bit

     

    Trying again

    Using the 3 anomaly sets of charts I use then they do not suugest any lasting deep cold nor do they suggest a very mild long spell of weather. With a broadly westerly flow at 500mb, switching between about 300 and 250 degrees then occasional Pm and Tm air seems the weather pattern for about 2 weeks or so. Nor does the MJO (GFS version) suggest anything might change with orbits ending almost at the origin. Synoptic charts, naturally enough, given what is suggested above are and will continue to switch from cold looking to mild looking. What they do show is that surface features will move quickly across the Atlantic bringing their switches from Pm to Tm air, pretty much on a NW-N/SW-S split. Hills of Scotland being the most likely to have snow cover at times. If one looks at the overall pattern predicted on the UK Met Fax charts it gives as good an idea as we are likely to get from free data as to what to expect.

    Links, trying again

    ECMWF-GFS, note not able to get the 00z version I usually input so this is the 12z from last night

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

    NOAA

    http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    MJO (GFS version)

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

    NAEFS

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

    http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

    and of course the various synoptic model outputs for comparison

     

    from the post above by Fergie from Met Office briefings it seems they suggest much as I've posted and indeed they seem to have nothing beyond 2 weeks to mark any major change.

    This should not be surprising given the overall upper pattern and ENSO outputs along with their monthly charts they issue which are along similar lines.

    So to those wanting sub zero values for days on end and deep snow=sorry, not yet on the menu sheet. 

    • Like 9

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    thats where i pinched it from! (my newsfeed obvs)

     

     

    thats what i read out of them too john, and indeed the ops seem to suggest more pm the tm air - but on the telly this morning peter gibbs is showing a huge 'dome of mild air' coming around the northern flank of the azores high "temperatures picking up later in the week" . its odd because the chart he used seems to have amplified the high greater then the anoms.

     

    I suspect that is because the anomaly charts are mean charts and given what they are showing, the average of a touch north of west in the 6-15 day period, then there will be occasions when Tm air comes in just as behind major surface lows a more Am type airflow.

    What the indication is, to me, there will be no major cold spell, say more than 2-3 days nor any marked mild spell again  more than 48 hours. I may be wrong of course! The overall average to me looks like about average temperatures to a touch below normal over the 15 day period.

    • Like 2

    Alps & Pyrenees Snow Thread 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    Men at work clearing the railway after Wengens first real snowfall of the season. Good job that's not in the UK, they would be on triple pay on a Sunday !

     

    C

     

    attachicon.gif68.jpg

     

    yes a daily job clearing the points on all sections of the Jungfrau area rail network. You need to look out for the two snow blowing beasts they kleep in the sheds at Kleinne. 15cm on the Lauberhorn area and 10cm in the village this morning. With the upper flow proedicted to be a westerly turning NW'ly at times at least there should be no major thaw above about 5000ft for most of the Alps.

     

    53 days to the start of the Lauberhorn races and the finish for all 3 disciplines looks almost complete. Shame there is no web cam of the 'mini village' they build below the Hunchkpopf jump.

    current.jpg

     

    some may like to turn on the video on the right hand side of the link below, Swiss advert but some good ski shots and something I have never seen before (IF it is real) is the sight of the display team flying with the Swiss National through the Jungfrau region!

    http://www.lauberhorn.ch/en/Livecam

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    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by johnholmes

    With respect - these are the same Anomalies that didn't pick up the bitter period this weekend. If we were to go by the anomaly's you have posted for about the last 6 weeks, we would be deep into a zonal train with no end in site..when in reality there has been plenty to keep everyone interested. The reliance on these charts and all that they entail is predominantly futile and misleading, especially when truly into fantasy land like T360. If a coldy finds a chart at T360 they get buried (ironically) under all the ribs aimed at them. 

     

    Sorry PW the anomaly charts I use, ECMWF-GFS and NOAA did predict a week ahead this cold spell. I can if you and others wish make up a pdf (if I can remember how to do it) and show the succession of charts that caused me to post around that time showing the flow changing to north of west with lowering heights occurring indicating a colder spell was very likely. I never attempt to predict more than about 2 weeks or so ahead as NOA charts only go out to 15 days. Rather than clutter up the thread I am happy to chat via pm or posting with a pdf allows folk to not have to read it. Just drop a line in here or pm me please.

    John

    • Like 14

    Alps & Pyrenees Snow Thread 2015/16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The station area where trains go up to the Jungraujoch or back down to Wengen or Grindelwald, height 6700ft

    http://www.bahnhof-scheidegg.ch/default.asp?itemid=107〈=e


    Certainly more snow falling further west in the Arlberg region. Picture from Ober Lech towards the main village.That particular fodder station is famous for its Fondue night parties and the only way back to the village is the slide down in a black bin liner. Makes for a good laugh after a few glogs !

     C

     

    attachicon.gif71.jpg

     

    done that above Kichberg MANY years ago with the main railway line at the bottom!

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The anomaly charts do not suggest any deep cold but with a flow n of west, just, then it is not going to be mild overall, unsettled also with the strength of the predicted flow at 500mb. Link below to ECMWF-GFS both of which are not totally unlike NOAA last evening but have a stronger flow and the trough into Europe is much more marked.

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    not a bad outlook 6-10 days for the Alps ski resorts.

    • Like 1
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